HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Hostage" will be a little bit of a challenge the following week but "Robots" will be the bigger issue across the board. Still, with a cast like this and fond memories of "Get Shorty," there should be something here for everyone, especially with a PG-13 rating. $100mil.

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THE JACKET

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Adrian Brody is either crazy or traveling through time. No, he's not Bruce Willis.

WILL IT SUCK?
I'm sorry, did Adrian Brody just blow your mind? No, really, did he? Critics can't seem to agree. Some think it's ingenious, others not so much. Given that one of the writers did the body-switching classic "Dream a Little Dream," I'm inclined to err on the side of the latter group (regardless of my forbidden love for that film).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Although "Cursed" fills a not-altogether-different niche the previous week, the audience's appetite for anything even remotely resembling horror has been insatiable lately, so look for this to open well, even if the glow doesn't last. $33mil.

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GUNNER PALACE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
This is the true story of a bunch of soldiers, picked to live in Uday Hussein's bombed out palace, and have their lives taped, and find out what happens when countries stop being polite and start getting, well, violent.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very, very good. And with so little "real" news coming out of Iraq, it's hard not to be curious to see things from the soldier's perspective.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not to be rude, but I kind of wish a larger company was handling this, because I feel like it deserves a wider audience than will probably hear about it. But who knows, maybe Palm Pictures will seize the opportunity and have their first big hit with this one. It certainly has the potential to be a water-cooler film. But without the marketing muscle of a Miramax (who'll be releasing "Dear Frankie" the same week) it might not get the buzz it needs to produce. The following week, two far heavier indie hitters enter the fray - Sony Pictures Classics and Fox Searchlight. $1mil.

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DEAR FRANKIE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Mother lies to her son about their absent father. But it's for a good cause.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is supposedly very, very good. It's at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes (w/ only 8 reviews, mind you) and doing very nicely on IMDB, thank you very much. It's won a couple of small film fest awards and even got a BAFTA nom.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Miramax mysteriously didn't show this at Sundance 2004. The delay suggests a lack of faith in the marketability of the product (though there could be other explanations). In any case, it's not clear they'll throw their full weight behind this. That plus a lack of star power could mean trouble. $1mil.

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WALK ON WATER

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Israeli queer cinema gets another notch in its belt from the director of "Yossi and Jagger." This one's about the hunt for a Nazi war criminal.

WILL IT SUCK?
Getting mostly good reviews so far. Nominated for numerous Israeli Oscars (but only won ones relating to sound for some reason). Not quite as popular as "Yossi and Jagger."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Marketed well, this could pull in the gay community in most major cities. That'll be the main audience since there are no real stars. $250,000.

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THE BEST OF YOUTH

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The best years of, well, two guys lives. Chronicle of an Italian family that doesn't rhyme with Morely Own.

WIILL IT SUCK?
At six hours, it's probably a lot more like "The Box Set of Youth," but audiences and film festival juries (not to mention the Italian Oscars) are hailing it as a masterpiece. A really, really, long masterpiece.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Up against a bunch of films in English with a quarter of the running time, so, you do the math. $300,000.

M A R C H 1 1

THE KINDER, GENTLER PASSION OF THE CHRIST

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Same great passion, with only 90% of the violence!

WILL IT SUCK?
Well, I didn't think the first one sucked, but that's a matter for debate in another column. In this column, let me just say that without that extra ten seconds of scourging, the film will fall flat on its face. You can't lose the scourging. The scourging's your heart.

Actually, I'm sure the re-edited version will be just fine and as off-putting to the people who didn't wanna see it in the first place.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it weren't for "Robots," I'd say this'll probably hit number one when it opens. Keep in mind, it's dropping on Good Friday. Mel's no dummy. Still, expect a fairly steady decline to follow a surprisingly-high-for-re-release opening. $40mil (just in re-release, catapulting it to the number six slot for all time US gross over "Spider-Man" from where it currently resides at number nine behind "Spider-Man 2" - weird, huh?)

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HOSTAGE
(Delayed from January)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Bruce Willis vs. home invaders. With a twist. Several, it seems. Most of which are given away in the trailer.

WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to say. This is based on a novel, which is usually good news for a thriller (as long as it's not Grisham). The writer has done some good ("Die Hard 2") some bad ("Money Train") and some meh ("Bad Boys"). One of the producers has done a modicum of outstanding work, including "Saving Private Ryan" and "A Simple Plan" and a wealth of crap along the lines of "Virus" and "Speed 2: Electric Boogaloo."

Finally, the director has graduated from the world of video games, having done "Splinter Cell: Pandora Tomorrow" and the upcoming "Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory." Mark my words, you're going to see many more directors come up from that world. It's gonna be to this decade what music videos were to the 90's for director breeding.

Also throw into the mix the fact that Miramax is distributing, and they hardly ever do thrillers, much less star-driven wide-release ones.

Anyway, I'd say it's a fifty/fifty shot. It's neat, however, to see Willis graduate from man on the inside ("Die Hard") to the guy on the other end of the walkie/cell phone.

Finally, the delay would cause more concern, if it weren't for the fact that it takes "Hostage" out of a month known for craptastic cinema.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's arguably in a worse spot now than when it was head to head with "Assault on Precinct 13." "Robots" will leave virtually no prisoners in its wake, and whatever's left will be eviscerated by "The Ring 2" the following week. $35mil.

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ROBOTS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Wacky misadventures of CG animated robots, one of whom is voiced by Robin Williams. From the makers of "Ice Age."

WILL IT SUCK?
First of all, kudos to the casting director. Ewan MacGregor, Greg Kinnear, Mel Brooks, Drew Carey, Jim Broadbent, Jennifer Coolidge, Paul Giamatti, Dan Hedaya, Jamie
"Son of the Mask Made Me a Whore" Kennedy, Conan O'Brien, and Stanley Tucci. All of that almost makes up for Halle Berry.

Now, when we say from the "makers" of "Ice Age," we really only mean the directors and studio, which is not a bad thing. But they don't have the writers, which is the heart of most animated films (and by "animated," I mean "virtually all"). What they have is Lowell Ganz and Babaloo Mandell who, along with their funny names, have written some very funny scripts, most notably one-liner-fest "City Slickers." However, if you look at their whole record, they bat about .500 ("Father's Day," anyone? When you can't bring the funny with Robin Williams AND Billy Crystal on board, something's very wrong.) The other writers (there are four in all) did "S.W.A.T." which was, y'know, okay.

It won't be "Ice Age," but it'll be funny.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is essentially the follow up to a $176 million dollar hit, and its biggest competition is a guy getting flogged in Aramaic. The term "slam dunk" comes to mind (and not in a prelude-to-war sort of way). $210mil.

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THE UPSIDE OF ANGER

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Joan Allen tries to put her life back together after her husband leaves her and her four daughters. But here's the real newsflash: Kevin Costner's in this one, and he plays.wait for it.a retired baseball player!!!! Holy shit!!! Oh, you should see the look on your face. It's priceless.

WILL IT SUCK?
Dude, check out who's playing Joan Allen's daughters: Keri Russell, Erika Christensen, Alicia Witt, and Evan Rachel Wood. All Joan has to do is put these chicks into a modeling agency and her problems are solved!

Early buzz is good, though writer/director Mike Bender's track record isn't. (Hint: His best-known film is "Blankman," which, in his defense, he didn't write.)

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Actually, this could be a clever bit of counterprogramming. There's no real romantic comedy around, and certainly nothing filling that all-too-rare adult romantic comedy niche (and, no, I'm not talking about "Hitch" or "Along Came Polly," - think "Something's Gotta Give" or "In Good Company"). This, more than the cosmic appropriateness of Kevin Costner playing progressively older stages of baseball player will put butts in seats. Not a lot of them, mind you, but some. $18mil.

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IN MY COUNTRY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Sam Jackson stars in a drama centered around the Truth and Reconciliation Commission hearings in South Africa. I can't wait for the line, "Say apartheid again! I dare ya! I double dare ya, motherfucker!"

WILL IT SUCK?
Not if it has that line in it! Unfortunately, it probably doesn't. In fact, this is kind of considered to be the second worst John Boorman film, right above "Exorcist II: The Heretic." That guy's just gotta stay out of Africa.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With reviews this crappy, not so well. $700,000.

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MILLIONS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Two little kids find some stolen money and try to do something good with it. From the director of "28 Days Later," so they spend it all on zombies.

WILL IT SUCK?
Not only is this from the director of "28 Days Later" (and "Trainspotting" and similarly-premised "Shallow Grave") but this is from the writer behind "24 Hour Party People," so I'm pretty much sold. Early reviews are fairly solid.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Fox Searchlight has already got the publicity machine rolling on this one with an amiable trailer. Still, you can't exactly market a kid's film with the line "from the director of '28 Days Later'." I mean, that works for me, but very few other people. $5mil.

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DOT THE I

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Two guys pursue some chick who's having doubts about getting married to one of them.

WILL IT SUCK?
Critics are split on this one, though audiences seem to like it. Apparently there are some twists and turns here that make this more of a thriller than straightforward romantic triangle. Plus, it has uber-actor Gabriel Garcia Bernal, who cannot be stopped. He cares not for nominations! He'll continue to work, no matter what. God bless that man.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Innovation (the film company behind this one), get on the ball here! You've got Bernal, one of the hottest indie actors around in a rare English-speaking role. Pimp that shit! I haven't heard hide nor hair about it yet `lest I looked for it. If it continues thus, bad news for the b.o. $100,000.

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THE BOYS AND GIRL FROM COUNTY CLARE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A Ceili music competition in '60's Liverpool. I know, I know. It's about fucking time.

WILL IT SUCK?
By most accounts, yes. But hey, it's got O'Brien from "Star Trek" and that chick from The Coors.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The UK film everyone will be watching this weekend will be "Millions." $900,000.

M A R C H 1 8

THE RING 2

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
More "World's Deadliest Home Videos.'

WILL IT SUCK?
Probably not. DreamWorks has made some smart moves here. First they hired back writer Ehren Kruger, who redeemed himself from "Reindeer Games" with his near-flawless adaptation of the original Japanese horror film. Next, they brought on the director of said film to direct the American version of his own sequel (Yes, there's a Japanese "Ringu 2." This is a remake of a sequel, not just the sequel to a remake - confused yet?) And, of course, they brought back Naomi Watts and that creepy kid (what do you mean "which one?" - oh, I guess they're both creepy). They've also added Gary Cole and Sissy Spacek, who was getting her creep on back when Naomi was, like, eight. This is going to rock.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's unstoppable. In a year when even crappy horror has made a dime, this is the jewel in the crown. $141mil.

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ICE PRINCESS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Think "The Cutting Edge." Now dumb it down a little.

WILL IT SUCK?
Frankly, you could do worse than a writer from "Scrubs" and "Spin City." And the supporting cast is halfway decent - Kim Cattrall and Joan Cusack. But the lead is Michelle Trachtenburg, and I've got issues with her dating back to "Buffy," which she Yoko-ed up for the rest of us. (Actually, I don't blame her, but her appearance coincided with the crappy writing).

So I guess this might not be half bad. I can't believe I just wrote that. Damn.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think most of the tweenies are going to go see "The Ring 2" instead. $18mil.

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MELINDA AND MELINDA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A plot is approached as a comedy and as a drama. The movie alternates between each.

WILL IT SUCK?
Once again, Woody Allen has assembled a tres nifty cast. Will Ferrell, Chloe Sevigny, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Johnny Lee Miller, Wallace Shawn, and Steve Carell among others. And the premise is kind of intriguing. Early buzz is favorable.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is going to be the big indie release of this weekend, and with Ferrell's presence, might get a little bit of a push, but the truth is, most of Woody's flicks just don't do that well. $5mil.

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STEAMBOY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Anime set in Victorian-era London.

WILL IT SUCK?
Well, it took ten years to make, is the most expensive Anime ever, and is from the writer/director of "Akira," so it's going to look as cool as shit. However, the early buzz is pretty middling.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Well, the Otaku are gonna go apeshit at first, but when the word of mouth gets around, favor will drop off sharply. $500,000.

M A R C H 2 5

MISS CONGENIALITY 2: ARMED AND FABULOUS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
No, really? Are you sure? Do you wanna try that again? Don't you mean "Speed 3"? I could kinda see there bein' a "Speed 3." Y'know, on the Space Shuttle? Or maybe "Demolition Man 2." Benjamin Bratt and Sandra Bullock were together on that, too. No? Miss Congeniality, huh? How about "More Divine Secrets of the Ya Ya Sisterhood?" Huh? Still Congeniality? You're sure you wanna go with that? Hmmm..

(2 hours later)

Really!?!

WILL IT SUCK?
Look, I saw the first "Miss Congeniality." And by "saw" I mean it was on in the background on, like, TBS or something while I was working. It wasn't that bad. But a sequel? Come on, how about "3 Weeks Notice" or "Forces of Nature, Too!" Speaking of her rendezvous w/ Ben Affleck, one of the writers behind it (and "Two Weeks Notice" for that matter) is back. Of course, he co-wrote the original "Congeniality," so that only makes sense. They couldn't get the original director however, so they got a guy who specializes in Tim Allen fare ("Joe Somebody," "The Santa Clause," "Jungle 2 Jungle" - yes, you can make "Jungle 2 Jungle" and still get work).

The cast is probably the only promising thing about this. There's Regina King, who's slummed in sequels before ("Legally Blonde 2") and Diedrich Bader, who knows how to bring the funny. Shatner and Caine return. Bratt, too busy doing, um, "Catwoman," does not. And Kubiac's in it, dude! Kubiac!

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's fair competition this week with comedic concoction "Guess Who." But Sandra Bullock trumps Bernie Mac. $94mil.

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GUESS WHO

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
OK. Get this. We're gonna do a remake of "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner?" But here's the twist. Instead of a black guy trying to marry into a white family, it'll be the other way around. This thing writes itself. All that's left is to cast it.

Well, who is the black Spencer Tracy of our day? Bernie Mac, right? And the black Katherine Hepburn? Someone you've never heard of before, of course. Now, here's the kicker. The white Sidney Poitier (and if I've said this once, I've said it a thousand times) is Ashton Kutcher.

Anyone else never want to go to the movies again?

WILL IT SUCK?
Don't get me wrong. I like Bernie Mac. I actually think he's a good choice to play the dad. But at least give him something to work with, people! And I'm not talking about Ashton. I'm talking about the writers from "Serving Sara," "Stealing Harvard," "I Spy," and "National Security" (of which the latter two had interracial leads - maybe that's how they got the job).

The director did "How Stella Got Her Groove Back" and "Barbershop 2," but with this much stacked against you, you're gonna have to do a helluva lot better than that.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Never mind "Armed and Fabulous," this flick's got much more to fear from "Beauty Shop" with Queen Latifah (who, I'm sorry, wasn't available I guess for the Katherine Hepburn role or something?) the following week. Actually, the combined power of Mac and Kutcher's draw should make for a significant opening, even if overshadowed by the competition. $58mil.

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D.E.B.S.

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Sexy young thangs get recruited to be secret agents. Cheeky lesbian overtones ensue.

WILL IT SUCK?
Sadly, I missed this at the Philly Gay and Lesbian Film Fest, but the buzz on it was that it's satiric fun in the vein of "Mean Girls." And you gotta love Michael Clarke Duncan as the Charlie to these Angels. Still, early reviews are mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real clear competition. If it can get some better reviews, it might just take off. $15mil.

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THE BALLAD OF JACK AND ROSE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Little ditty, `bout Jack and Ro-o-ose. Father and a daughter, growin' up in Canada-land. Jack gets sick, has to call on Catherine Keen-er-er. Rose she gets jealous, goes bat-shit crazy. Yeah, I know it doesn't rhyme.

WILL IT SUCK?
Who knows? But it's bound to be controversial. See, there are some undertones of incest there and that's, y'know, controversial. In any case, early reviews are mixed. The one bright spot here is that it's Daniel Day Lewis' return to film for the first time since 2002. Okay, I guess it wasn't that long this time.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's hard to spin incest controversy. I'm not sure if that will increase or decrease sales, so IFC might avoid that angle altogether. In any case, Lewis will be a draw, but I think more people are gonna be in the mood for "D.E.B.S." $6mil.

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OLDBOY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy is held prisoner for fifteen years then released, all for no reason. He goes tear-ass on his captors, but may still be a pawn.

WILL IT SUCK?
Grand Jury Prize at Cannes. Already in the IMDB top 250 (at 107, no less). I think it's safe to say it doesn't totally suck. On the other hand, one should be warned that one best go in with a strong stomach, according to buzz.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A quality film that deserves a wide audience? It'll crash and burn. However, the buzz might help and Tartan Films, um, okay I've never heard of them before but I'm sure they can.yeah, it'll bomb. But you'll get to see the whole thing again when Justin "Better Luck Tomorrow" Lin remakes it in 2006. I'm not kidding. Justin, I love ya, but you're above remakes, seriously. (And so are you Scorsese. Don't think I don't know about your remake of "Infernal Affairs.") $100,000.

M A R C H 3 0

BEAUTY SHOP

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Barbershop," but with chicks.

WILL IT SUCK?
I don't know how the people making the trailer for this movie forgot to add, "From the director of `Honey' and the writer of `Glitter'."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Queen Latifah's a big draw. This movie has a little bit to fear from the second frame of "Miss Congeniality 2," but not much. The head start on the weekend probably won't hurt. $79mil.

That's all for this month. Next month? Two words. "City" and "Sin." Not in that order. Also, some sort of guide for hitchhikers and the long dreaded sequel to "XXX" which, sadly, is not called "XXXI." Yup, the summer movies are starting in April now.

Dave Thomas

http://travelindave.blogspot.com