HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's no horror fare per se for it to contend with, but the second frame of "XXX: State of the Union" and even "Hitchhiker's" could be a bit of a drag. Still, horror refuses to be put down this year, no matter how much it sucks. $81mil.

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CRASH

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Not a remake of the David Cronenberg film with the Mint Charlie. Oh, I hope there are no Mint Charlies. Instead, "Short Cuts," Paul Haggis-style.

WILL IT SUCK?
It's a cast of thousands talking about race. What's not to like? You've got Matt Dillon, Thandie "where are my eyebrows?" Newton, Don Cheadle, Brendan "underrated" Fraser, William Fichtner, Ryan "also underrated, but maybe not as much" Phillipe, Sandra "Look, I'm in an indie" Bullock, and Ludacris. I hope he still has those big arms from that Spike Jonze video.

Early buzz is good but not as good as Haggis' last piece, "Million Dollar Baby," or as all the hip critics spelled it earlier this year "M$B." Here Haggis directs as well.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It could stand to have a bit more advertising if Lion's Gate truly intends to open it wide. If not, the high profile cast should be more than enough to get it through the indie waters. In wide release, though, it might drown. $32mil.

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JIMINY GLICK IN LALAWOOD

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Martin Short plays one of his annoying characters for an entire movie.

WILL IT SUCK?
If, like me, Martin Short has jumped the shark for you, the only point of interest here might be the setting - the Toronto Film Festival. Also, there are some decent-looking cameos/actual roles - Jan Hooks, Linda Cardellini, Jake Gyllenhaal, Kevin Kline, Steve Martin, Kurt Russell, Kiefer Sutherland, and Forest Whitaker.

Defintely not enough to get me interested. Early buzz is not good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's not so much that it's up against anything (except itself). The show didn't really have all that big a following. And they're not exactly pushing this indiewise. And when the studio pushing it has the title of the movie in its name (Lalawood LLC, I shit you not) you know you're in trouble. Still, even fucking "Clifford" made some dough. $8mil.

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MYSTERIOUS SKIN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The latest from Gregg Araki. Two teens grow up in a small town, one of them believing he was abducted by aliens as a boy. Rebellion/angst ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is probably the best-reviewed Araki ("The Doom Generation," "Nowhere,") film yet, which isn't saying much since his earlier films weren't all that well received. Still he's built up a following, and so far they seem satisfied. The casting is kind of interesting. Michelle Trachtenburg takes a break from "Eurotrip" fare to get her indie feet wet. Probably a good move. And "potato face" from "24" makes an appearance as well. And Billy Drago! He's back! In indie form!

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Big indie releases the following week plus a push from a relatively small company (the Philly-based TLA) and the fact that Araki movies don't usually do all that well anyway could compromise the big grosses. $300,000.

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BROTHERS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
One brother goes off to war. The other stays behind with his sister-in-law. One brother is presumed dead. Guess what happens next. Guess who isn't really dead.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is actually pretty good. The performances are being highlighted. This is from the screenwriter of "Wilbur Wants to Kill Himself," which explored similar themes, and was also kind of slow. The fests seem to love it anyway.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, the following week is a problem, but this week, good buzz and good promotion from Focus (who usually does right by their pictures) should help, though not much. $600,000.

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FIGHTING TOMMY RILEY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"M$B" with a guy. So I guess that makes it "Rocky."

WILL IT SUCK?
This really does have a "Rocky" feel. Right down to the fact that the guy who wrote it stars as the boxer. Other than that, it feels like a low-budget, DV knock-off of "M$B."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is going to have its ass handed to it. Even by the small features. $250,000.

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MODIGLIANI

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Modigliani (remember him?) takes on Picasso in an art competition in Paris.

WILL IT SUCK?
The early buzz is so bad it's not even funny. On the other hand, audiences seem to like it. Put another way, it's got zero percent on Rotten Tomatoes, but 7 out of 10 on the IMDB. Go figure. Andy Garcia plays the lead, so if you want to see him do his impersonation of Alfred Molina in "Frida," check it out.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Although this has the biggest star of the limited releases this week, it's also got one of the smallest distributors and weakest critical momentum, so, don't expect much bank. $500,000.

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TWIN SISTERS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Twins sisters are separated at a young age. One goes to live with a rich aunt in Holland. The other becomes a Nazi farmhand. Then they get back together.

WILL IT SUCK?
This was one of the Best Foreign Film nominees at this year's Oscars. The advance buzz is outstanding.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Without Miramax pushing them, none of the above would mean crap. On the other hand, Miramax is kind of busy right now, so I don't know if they'll be giving this their full attention. $600,000.

MAY 13

MONSTER-IN-LAW

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Hanoi Jane belittles Jenny From Tha Block in an attempt to keep her from marrying her son, That Guy From Alias.

WILL IT SUCK?
It's not the most original idea to come across the plate. "Meet the Parent" comments aside, the trailer manages to rehash the allergic food reaction schtick from "Hitch" and "Along Came Polly" - twice. Director's okay. He did "Legally Blonde" and "Win a Date with Tad Hamilton" so I guess he's on good footing here. It's probably a better idea on paper than in execution, but whatever puts food on Will Arnett's plate is fine by me.

Incidentally, Jane Fonda's last role was (as you'll hear many times when this comes out) 15 years ago in "Stanley and Iris" with Robert DeNiro, who also recently played an embarrassing father-in-law along with icons Barbara Streisand and Dustin Hoffman. So I think we can look forward to all the great 70's stars playing annoying, quirky parents in the future. Look for Robert Redford to play Sean William Scott's dad in "Meet the Founder of the Sundance Film Festival" and Al Pacino to play Amanda Byne's senile grandpop with mechanical hands in "Grandfather Claws."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Laugh all you want (please laugh, they beat me when you don't) but that intense dramatic acting legend cum wacky sitcom-character bit made "Meet the Fockers" the second most successful live-action (thank God for Shrek and Nemo) comedy of all time. Let me say that again. "Meet the Fockers," not "Airplane," not "Some Like It Hot," not "Animal House," not even freakin' "Half-Baked," no "Meet the Fucking Fockers" is the second-highest-grossing live-action comedy ever made (behind, er, "Home Alone"). Let's take a moment.

Okay, that having been said, there is hope. It'll be a good fight between this and "Kicking and Screaming" to see who grabs the comedy cajones of the Mother's Day crowd. Oh, did I say Mother's Day? Yeah, there ya go. New Line ain't dummies. At least Anakin will slice this up a little next week. $189mil.

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KICKING AND SCREAMING

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
All sorts of family conflict going on here. Will Ferrell coaches a kids' soccer team against a team coached by his dad (Robert "I will act with everyone eventually" Duvall) and featuring his son (a role somehow not played by Dakota Fanning).

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not good. This is what happens when you add the raw power of the director of "How High" (Bob Dylan's non-Wallflowers son, as it happens) with the writing acumen of the team that brought you "Space Jam" and BOTH "The Santa Clause" movies. Ironically, the trailer's actually kind of funny.

Now if this were a remake of the 1995 slacker comedy "Kicking and Screaming" with Eric Stoltz... it still probably wouldn't be a good idea.

But I would pay to see Eric Stoltz coach a soccer team.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will Ferrell is a BFD, which from now on will stand for "Big Fucking Draw." "Monster-in-Law" will be a problem, but there's enough comedy pie (and enough diversity in the demo's for each) to go around. For now. Next week, pickings get slimmer, and the moviegoers who didn't plan ahead and are boxed out of "Sith" screenings will have to choose between this and "Monster-In-Law" (and a couple of other movies, but we'll get to that later). I'm thinking that crowd is more Will Ferrell than Jennifer Lopez.

Even with that, however, the combined power of J-Lo and J-Fo will bury W-Fe over time. $75mil.

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UNLEASHED

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jet Li escapes the clutches of Bob Hoskins who's been training him like a fighting dog for years. Morgan Freeman takes him in and teaches him how to be human.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, with audiences liking it more than critics. Looks to me like some cool action scenes (Yuen Woo Ping did the fight choreography, so I'm there regardless) buffered by some boring, sappy tonight-on-a-very-special-Blind-Morgan-Freeman-Show filler. Luc Besson writes, but whatever good will he bought with "The Professional" and "Nikita" he spent on "Kiss of the Dragon." and "The Transporter." Speaking of the latter, same director here and, yes, there will be a sequel which I can only hope will be called "Transporter 2: Still Transportin'."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Of the two non-comedy releases this week, this has the advantage. People get psyched for Jet Li films. Oscar-fresh Freeman doesn't hurt, either. $80mil.

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MINDHUNTERS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
As I said over a year ago when this was first supposed to come out, it's about an elite group of profilers who have to hunt one of their own when he or she starts targeting them.

WILL IT SUCK?
This movie is so old ("How old is it?") that it was nominated for a Golden Trailer Award LAST year. The trailer is actually pretty good (though the last shot gives away too much). The premise is intriguing - but here are two strikes against it. One is director Renny Harlin who pretty much makes everything suck. He's like the Revolution Studios of directors. Then you have the writer Wayne Kramer, who did a decent job with "The Cooler" but is saddled with a co-writer who did "Glimmer Man" and, less of an indictment, "Constantine." Oh, Andrew Kevin Walker, where art thou?

In spite of all that, this is actually getting good reviews. It's had plenty of time to gather them.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Dimension seems to have so little faith in this that it failed to release it in January '04 as originally planned. As if to add bad timing to injury, they're releasing it against three much higher profile pics. I'm surprised they didn't just say "Fuck you, Renny!" and release it against "Sith." Still, if it's as good as the early adopters say, it might grow a cult following. $34mil.

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LAYER CAKE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Just when he thinks he's out, cocaine "businessman" Daniel Craig gets dragged back into the business by his boss. The directing debut of the guy who produced "Lock, Stock" and "Snatch."

WILL IT SUCK?
No worries, mate. It's quite good. Read my review here. The short version is that this is in the same vein as the good Guy Ritchie movies (and not the evil one) but with a little more of the serious and a little bit less of the funny - but that's a good thing in this case.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Of all the limited releases this weekend (or most others in May), this is arguably in the best shape. It's got a good lead-in, tight trailer, although it could stand to have a little bit more of a push from Sony Pictures Classics. $7mil.

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MAD HOT BALLROOM

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Dancebound."

WILL IT SUCK?
No. Saw this one, too. Gotta love the Philly Film Fest. Anyway, it's good stuff. Not as deep as say, "Hoop Dreams" or even "Spellbound," but entertaining nonetheless.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This might actually be in a better position than "Layer Cake." People love the kiddie docs. This could be this summer's "Spellbound." $6mil.

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CRAZY LIKE A FOX

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Roger Rees (Robin Colcord or Lord John Marbury, if you prefer) goes crazy. But it's all to save his farm, so it's okay.

WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to say. Totally new writer/director. It's Roger Rees, so he should be fun. I tell you what, though, if they ever make a movie version of that 80's series "Crazy Like a Fox," I'll be there. Or if they make a movie about how Rupert Murdoch is totally fucking insane.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In a sea of unkowns, it's equally unknown. $250,000.

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KINGS AND QUEEN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A separated couple reunites after one of the couple's father dies. Oh, and one of them is mistakenly locked in a mental institution.

WILL IT SUCK?
Nominated for a shitload of Cesar Awards. American reception a little more lukewarm, but still positive overall.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Much higher profile indies out there right now. $200,000.

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SAINT RALPH

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kid runs the Boston Marathon as a symbolic miraculous gesture on behalf of his ill mother.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early reviews are mixed, but audiences seem to like it. I know, I was hoping it was the long-awaited sequel to "King Ralph," too, but it could still be good. Campbell Scott looks like he'll be fun as Ralph's priest/mentor.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The presence of Scott (and a couple of other recognizable faces, like Jennifer Tilly) plus the push of a mini-major like Samuel Goldwyn could give this a slight edge. $2mil.

MAY 20

STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Alienation and mother issues drive ambitious youth to become totalitarian dictator. Kind of like "Pink Floyd: The Wall" with lightsabers.

WILL IT SUCK?
This faces the same challenges the other two faced. George Lucas writing the screenplay and George Lucas writing the screenplay. Why, oh, why couldn't he let Frank Darabont have the reins? Or Lawrence Kasdan? But, noooo….

At least there's less potential for suck here. There's little or no Jar Jar (we hope). There's less focus on romance, since Anakin's has to end. In other words, Lucas can focus on what he does best - action. Although early word from him is that this is a very dramatic script.

I will admit, however, that just watching the rehearsals of the fight between Anakin and Obi-Wan got me psyched. Although what I'm really looking forward to is watching Palpatine throw down.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sucking won't get in the way of this making money. "Phantom Menace" was far worse than "Attack of the Clones" and made over $100mil. more. Of course, that points in the direction of this doing worse, since it will probably be better than "Clones." However, I think this will better meet audience expectations (greatly tempered expectations) and so generate positive, as opposed to disappointed, word of mouth, and help this land somewhere between its predecessors. $350mil.

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DOMINION: A PREQUEL TO THE EXORCIST

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Yet another movie about the events leading up to the original. This time Paul Schrader's original footage sees the light of day.

WILL IT SUCK?
When we last left the Prequel Saga, Schrader's version lay on the cutting room floor, replaced by splatterrific Renny Harlin's vision. But it's okay, they told Schrader, your version will be on the DVD.

As it turns out, not so much.

So Schrader screened his version in Brussels, got himself some buzz to go with his pity whuffie, and Morgan Creek reconsidered. And they were so contrite that they agreed to release it in a limited capacity up against "Star Wars III."

All of this could mean nothing if the movie still sucks. Early buzz is that this is much better, though that's not much of an accomplishment. The original (can we even call it that?) scored a whopping 11% on Rotten Tomatoes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Well, if Morgan Creek keeps up the monster ad campaign they've been running so far, I think you, me, and three other people might know about this. $17mil.

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SEX, POLITICS, & COCKTAILS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy goes gay.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz really isn't that good, but the trailer's kind of funny.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The bigger queer-themed indie release is coming out next week. Without better reviews, this one could stagnate. $500,000.

TELL THEM WHO YOU ARE
(Held over from last month)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Legendary cinematographer Haskell Wexler's son turns the camera on his dad. Art-as-therapy ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good to mediocre. But it might be worth it just to see the guest list. Everyone from George Lucas to Sidney Poitier weighs in.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If ThinkFilm pushes this with the film lover's crowd, and I mean name-drops shamelessly, they could draw a crowd. Still don't see that happening, though. $250,000.

MAY 27

THE LONGEST YARD

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Inmates vs. guards in this remake of the football classic.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Peter Segal does okay with Sandler films. "Anger Management," "50 First Dates." These are among the "meh" titles in the Sandler oeuvre. Actually, anything other than the first two and "Wedding Singer" is kind of a wash.

It'll be nice to see him work with Chris Rock, but Rock's never really been that great in movies. He's a creature of stand-up.

Other cast notables include Burt "I'm starring in my own remake" Reynolds, James Cromwell, William Fichtner, the camp value of Steve Austin and Brian Bosworth, Sandler stand-by's Allen Covert and Rob Schneider (and if he says "You can do it!" one more fucking time I'm going to kick him in the balls eight times).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
According to the polling data on Movies.com, people are almost as psyched for this as they are for "Sith." Sandler is a VERY BFD. He's gotta deal with the second frame of "Sith" and the release of "Madagascar," (which means that Rock's competing against a more family-friendly version of himself). No mean feat. But if anyone can do it... (I'm watching you, Schneider. Don't!) $127mil.

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MADAGASCAR

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A lion, a hippo, a giraffe, and a zebra walk into a bar, er, out of a zoo and end up stranded on Madagascar.

WILL IT SUCK?
There are two kinds of DreamWorks CG animated features. "Shrek" movies and "Shark Tale." With its outdated cultural references (they're singing "I like to move it, move it" in the trailer) this is probably going to be "Zoo Animal Tale." Good cast though: Chris Rock, Ben Stiller, David Schwimmer, Andy Richter, Cedric the Entertainer.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is very good timing on DreamWorks part. Most films are avoiding the wake of "Sith," but they realize that this darker chapter won't fill the void of kid's films the way "Phantom Menace" did. And, parents aren't going to take their kids to a Sandler film when there's a perfectly good cartoon out there. And the following weekend ain't got jack. $210mil.

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A LEAGUE OF ORDINARY GENTLEMAN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Who cares? It has to be better than "The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen."

WILL IT SUCK?
Actually, it's about bowling. Specifically, the efforts of middle-aged bowlers to get the TV public interested in the sport again. The trailer is hilarious. Early buzz is strong. It may not be "Murderball," but it should be pretty damn good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This has a fairly good buzz behind it. If Magnolia can capitalize on that, this could make a splash. But they haven't really done that so far. $5mil.

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SAVING FACE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A young Chinese-American woman is faced with the prospect of coming out to her mom, who is suddenly outcast and on her doorstep in New York.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Do you like Joan Chen? She's the mom. That's all I got.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With Sony Pictures Classics behind it, this should fare well. Unfortunately this is the summer, and foreign indie dramas aren't the biggest draw these days. $400,000.

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BOMB THE SYSTEM
(Also held over from last month)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A graffiti artist declares war on the NYPD.

WILL IT SUCK?
Probably not. Good reviews. Neat premise, minus the slight "Gleaming the Cube" w/ graffiti vibe.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Needs a bigger marketing push than it's currently getting from Palm pictures, who, imho, fumbled "Gunner Palace," which should have been one of the biggest indie stories of the year so far, but wasn't. That doesn't bode well for this, which could otherwise make some bank given the dearth of films about, well, graffiti. $250,000.

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PURE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Well, the synopsis has to do with a little kid discovering that his mom's addicted to heroin. The trailer, however, looks like an Eternity commercial.

WILL IT SUCK?
This comes from the director of "Hideous Kinky," which, if you've seen it, might explain the Eternity commercial. Early reviews are mixed, but generally good. Keira Knightley does her indie thing, if that does it for you.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Too small, unless they play up that Keira angle. Even then...$2mil.

There's one good movie coming out next month. Save your pennies.

by Dave Thomas