Two points for casting. Alexis Bledel and Amber Tamblyn, both from well-respected TV series, are among the leads, as is America Ferrera, from the superior "Real Women Have Curves." She also plays Thunder Monkey in "Lords of Dogtown," which may be the best character name ever.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is pretty much on its own as far as teen-girl-fare goes. A little competition from those who'll swoon over "The Lords of Dogtown," but not much. Combining the following of Bledel and Tamblyn along with the book upon which this is based doesn't hurt. $68mil.

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CINDERELLA MAN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A man is bitten by a radioactive fairy tale character and acquires super-powers, like the power to have one magical evening away from his nagging stepsisters.

Actually, more like "Seabiscuit" with boxing instead of horseracing.

WILL IT SUCK?
Writer Akiva Goldsman has done good of late - "I, Robot," "A Beautiful Mind." But he still has a ways to go to make up for "Batman and Robin" and "Lost in Space." Here he teams up again with director Ron Howard, who has a rep for making good, but not necessarily great, films. Here they both team up again with Russell Crowe, who's just a great actor.

Add Renee Zellwegger, Paul Giamatti, Craig Bierko, and the real question isn't so much "WILL IT SUCK?" as "Will it be Oscar-worthy?"

Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It'll probably have "Seabiscuit"-like success as the lone "prestige" flick of the summer. $121mil.

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LORDS OF DOGTOWN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Fakey version of doc "Dogtown and Z-Boys."

WILL IT SUCK?
The writer, Stacey Peralta, who directed the doc, was actually one of the original Z-Boys (surfers who went on to revolutionize skateboarding). Director Catherine Hardwicke is hot off "Thirteen" and knows her teen drama. From the trailer, the tacked-on love story seems, well, tacked-on, but other than that, it should be a fun, if predictable, ride.

Keep an eye out for Peralta making a cameo as a director for "Charlie's Angels." That is, if you have any idea what he looks like.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Well, if this were still (as was originally the plan) David Fincher's next project, a larger male demo would be involved. It'll still draw the skateboarding faithful, but you'll have to split the Heath Ledger/Emile Hirsch groupies between this and competing tween-girl-fare "Pants." And "Pants" has a two-day head start. $57mil.

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APRES VOUS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
One guy saves another from suicide but becomes interested in the girl that the suicidee was about to kill himself over.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. The lead, Daniel Auteuil, was hilarious in "The Closet," and was nominated for a Cesar for his performance here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Higher profile indies are gonna squash this. $800,000.

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ROCK SCHOOL
(Held over from April)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Documentary about a guy who runs a rock school. Not to be confused with "School of Rock," except that it's kind of the inspiration for it.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, though watching the trailer it's a little creepy to see a real life version of Black actually yelling at little kids.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Newmarket can play up the "School of Rock" connection (and good reviews), fairly well. $2mil.

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MILWAUKEE, MINNESOTA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Mentally challenged ice fishing prodigy (you read that right) gets taken for his winnings by some unsavory characters.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed although this cleaned up at Cannes and the Seattle Film Festival, among others. Randy Quaid in an unusually dark role should be interesting and hey, look, Bruce Dern!

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, higher profile shit will drown this. $600,000.

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June 10

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MR. AND MRS. SMITH

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
L.L. Cool J. gets married. Too obscure? How about this? Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt are top assassins who happen to be married to each other but have no idea what their significant other really does for a living (cue scratching record sound)...until they're hired to kill each other.

WILL IT SUCK?
I've got some bad news. The guy who wrote "xXx: State of the Union" is also writing the third X-Men film. He also wrote this, which will now likely suck, but I'm much more upset about the X-Men thing.

That having been said, Doug Liman usually gives good movie. And he's pulled in at least one actor from each of his previous efforts. Vince Vaughan from "Swingers," (who's hilarious in the trailer). William Fichtner from "Go." Adam Brody from "The O.C." (Liman directed the first two episodes, who knew?) And Matt Damon from "The Bourne Identity." He plays Brad Pitt. Okay, there's no one from "The Bourne Identity," but you have to admit that the rest is pretty neat.

It'll still suck.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This will pretty much own the weekend. If it weren't for "Batman," it would own the month. $140mil.

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THE ADVENTURES OF SHARK BOY AND LAVA GIRL IN 3-D

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kid daydreams about superheroes who actually come to life and take him on a great adventure. I can't tell you how long I thought it was "Larva Girl." That would've been totally different. Also, the title reminds me of Stretch Dude and Clobber Girl from "The Simpsons," but that's totally different, too.

WILL IT SUCK?
Robert Rodriguez's kids' films have become increasingly cheesy, and this looks like a giant leap cheesier. I know I underestimated "Spy Kids" and Rodriguez's writing efforts (here enhanced by his son) are usually solid, but man is that one underwhelming trailer. I don't care, really. I just found out there's going to be a "Sin City 2," so I'm happy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It has the advantage of being pretty much alone in the kid-friendly world at this point in the schedule ("Madagascar's" in its third frame), and Rodriguez's kids' films usually do well, even at their cheesiest. But "Herbie" isn't too far off. $86mil.

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HIGH TENSION

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
French slasher import in which a woman fights back against the killer who wiped out her friend and her friend's whole family.

WILL IT SUCK?
Buzz on this is straightforward NC-17 gore. I remember missing this at SXSW two years ago, partly out of fear. I'd want to see it more if the reviews were more consistent. Critics are fairly split, but the overall buzz is positive. Dimension liked it enough to tap the writing/directing team to do a remake of "The Hills Have Eyes."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Horror fans aren't looking for perfection, just the goods. If the buzz maintains that this is the real deal, there will be no draw like it until the end of the month when "Land of the Dead" bows. Lion's Gate stands to make a killing and continue to solidify its small-budget horror niche. $22mil.

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THE HONEYMOONERS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Although it's kind of clever to recast "The Honeymooners" w/ an all-black cast, I stand by my conviction that only Ed Norton should be allowed to play Ed Norton.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is the first of three TV-to-movie adaptations to come out this summer, and none of them look good. We still have "Bewitched" and "The Dukes of Hazzard" to look forward to, but for now we can hope that the better angels of "Coming to America," which produced two of this film's scribes, will win out over "Agent Cody Banks 2," from another contributing writer's resume. There are five writers in all.

Interesting casting. Cedric the Entertainer (Ralph) is usually funny, but even he couldn't save "Johnson Family Vacation." Gabrielle Union (Alice - I don't remember her being THAT hot), John Leguizamo, Eric Stoltz, and Jon Polito should keep it interesting, but probably won't.

I think this will be "meh" at best.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not so much with the urban comedy on the horizon, so this has a got a clear demo shot. Cedric pulled in around $30mil. for "Vacation." Expect about the same for this. $33mil.

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HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Dude, it's a Hayao Miyazaki movie ("Princess Mononoke," "Spirited Away"). Even if I tried to explain the plot to you, it wouldn't make any sense when you actually saw it, so just enjoy the ride.

WILL IT SUCK?
As I said, it's a Hayao Miyazaki movie, and they just don't suck. On the other hand, I can usually never make heads or tails of them, so if you're a plot nazi like me, you might wanna skip this. Visually, though, it's bound to be stunning.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's not like there's a glut of anime in theaters. Miyazaki usually does well by Disney, and vice-versa. $11mil.

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PARINEETA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Bollywood musical somehow finding purchase on our shores.

WILL IT SUCK?
I can tell you that author Sarat Chandra Chattopadhyay's works have been adapted many times, so it's probably compelling source material. The songs look...okay. The most interesting thing about this (besides the fact that Bollywood musicals almost never get released here in anything but a retrospective) is that one of the screenplay credits is a "dialogue" credit. I'm beginning to wonder if more American films shouldn't have dialogue specialists (I suppose many already do, see Tarantino's work on "Crimson Tide" - but not enough).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
How many Bollywood enthusiasts do you know? That's what I thought. $90,000.

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5X2

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ten. Just kidding. Francois Ozon's latest does the "Eternal Sunshine" thang with the backwards relationship but not so much with the sci-fi.

WILL IT SUCK?
Ozon ("Swimming Pool," "8 Women") usually gives good movie. Early buzz is mixed, but generally positive. The actress playing the woman in the relationship has received mad love so far, including an award at Venice.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
After the success of "Swimming Pool," Ozon should be an easier sell to American audiences, even if they've seen this gimmick before. $6mil.

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THE BRIDGE OF SAN LUIS REY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A friar investigates the accidental deaths of five strangers on a bridge with hopes to prove that they all deserved their fates, thus proving the existence of God. Based on the Pulitzer Prize winning novel by Thornton Wilder.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is kind of meh, and here's the thing. A movie with Robert De Niro, Harvey Keitel, Kathy Bates, F. Murray Abraham, and Jim Sheridan (!) based on a Pulitzer Prize Winning novel, you would think that this would (a) be a fall Oscar-buzz release and (b) come out sooner given that it was finished last year. What's more, Fine Line, the company distributing it, no longer exists. I smell a forced release.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Fine Line can play up the huge cast and the lofty pedigree, they could get some opening weekend love (even if it turns into hate weekend two), but without a fully operational Fine Line there to promote it, I don't think that's going to happen. $2mil.

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June 17

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BATMAN BEGINS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Batman origin story. Can you believe there's never been one?

WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to say. Director Christopher Nolan has knocked at least two out of the park already ("Insomnia," "Memento") and can bring the noir. Writer David S. Goyer is a little more problematic. He gave us two bad and one good "Blade" flicks and a bunch of other crap. (I've heard that "Dark City" is good, but no one's raving about "Crow: City of Angels"). However, when teamed with a good director (and, in this case, co-screenwriter) he can bring the bad-ass.

Conceptually, I'm on board. They've brought in overlooked characters like Ra's Al Ghul and Lucius Fox and cast winners all around - Michael Caine, Liam Neeson, Morgan Freeman, Gary Oldman, Ken Watanabe, Cillian Murphy, Tom Wilkinson, and Rutger Hauer. And Bale can bring the brood as Batman, though I think my friend's theory about needing someone who can appear bumbling as Bruce Wayne (the key to his secret identity remaining a secret) is important. I also like that they've attempted to ground this in a real-ish world, with all of Batman's implements originating as abandoned military projects and the presence of a world outside of Gotham.

I'm not crazy about Katie "no, really, I'm fucking Tom Cruise, seriously guys" Holmes making an appearance as a character who (a) ain't in the original comics and (b) is a most likely unnecessary love interest in an already loaded story. On the other hand, you'll be hard pressed to find an origin story without a love interest. But it rarely helps.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even if it only did as well as "Batman and Robin," it would still clear $100mil. Think about that for a sec. Anyway, this is going to do much better. $256mil.

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THE PERFECT MAN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Hilary Duff vehicle in which Hilary invents a man for her newly single mother to be with a la Bart and Mrs. Krabappel on that episode of "The Simpsons," without the malicious intent.

WILL IT SUCK?
The most interesting thing here is the casting. TV notables Heather Locklear, Amy Acker, Caroline Rhea, and Chris Noth (presumably reprising his role as the perfect man from "Sex and the City," just in a Duff-friendly way) pitch in, with an appearance from "Queer Eye's" Carson. Plus Dennis De Young plays a Dennis De Young impersonator. Surely that alone is worth the price of admission.

From the director of the Hilarrific "Cinderella Story," and the writer behind "The Princess Diaries" and, sadly, "The Princess Diaries 2."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably the only thing you could put up against "Batman," except maybe a Lindsay Lohan vehicle - no, wait, that's next week. $11mil.

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MY SUMMER OF LOVE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Sort of a highbrow "Wild Things," with two young women going all "Heavenly Creatures" on Paddy Considine.

WILL IT SUCK?
Won a crapload of awards in Britain, including Best British Film at the BAFTA's. Paddy Considine ("In America") is da bomb, but let me put this in terms that Jeff from "Coupling" might understand...British Lesbians!!!

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Focus needs to get the word out on this one. Half the people who went to see "Swimming Pool" were NOT Ozon fans. $2mil.

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HEIGHTS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
24 hour soap opera in New York. Sadly, not a remake of the Fox TV smash which spawned "How Do You Talk to an Angel?" (Now we'll never know the answer to that question!)

WILL IT SUCK?
Dude, everybody in this trailer looks like someone else. Lead Elizabeth Banks looks like a cross between Parker Posey and Gretechen Mol, Jesse Bradford looks like Ron Livingston, the director, who has a small part, looks like Paul Bettany, and James Marsden doesn't look anything like the guy who plays Spike on "Buffy," but his name is really close. Of course, none of that is relevant.

This is adapted from a well-received Amy Fox play by Fox herself and by most accounts (more critics than audiences) is the good shit.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Sony Pictures Classics plays up the fact that Glenn Close has a supporting role (which they will) and maybe the fact that this is a Merchant/Ivory production (which they haven't), this could get competitive, especially with good reviews in tow. $10mil.

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ME AND YOU AND EVERYONE WE KNOW

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Quirky indie romantic drama.

WILL IT SUCK?
This was the darling of both Sundance AND Cannes this year, so probably not. Watch for it to make headlines with its explicit depictions of teen sexuality. Oh, and "Deadwood" fans should check out John Hawkes in the lead.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
IFC has got to get the word out on this one. No other indie this summer is likely to have the critical momentum (or controversial potential) of this one. $2mil.

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June 24

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HERBIE: FULLY LOADED

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Herbie" remake with Lindsay Lohan at the wheel.

WILL IT SUCK?
First off, let me just tell you my favorite moment from the trailer, in which Lindsay tells Herbie that another car he's checking out is "a little young for him." At that moment, I would pay cash money for Herbie to be voiced by Bruce Willis.

Anyhoo, it's kind of depressing just how much talent has been thrown at this one. The director of the decidedly NOT G-rated "D.E.B.S." is helming Justin Long, Michael Keaton, Matt Dillon, Breckin "Remember how promising I was in 'Road Trip' and 'Clueless'" Meyer, and the aforementioned pop star, who I think is actually a talented comedic actress. As if that weren't enough, Alfred Gough and Miles Millar, who seemed to abandon "Smallville" this season, one hopes in pursuit of something better, were apparently script-doctoring this.

So why am I not psyched with all this talent surrounding a project? How about a craptacular trailer that makes it seem like this was written by the guys behind "The Pacifier," "Taxi," and...wait for it..."The Country Bears?" How about the fact that this actually WAS written by those guys. How about the idea that this company will bring out the worst in Gough/Millar, who also scripted "Showtime?"

There's a 1 in 100 chance that this will pull a "Freaky Friday" and be a billion times better than it has any right to be, but I'm not holding my breath.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Bewitched" obviously skews older, but will still take part of this crowd. "Batman's" second frame skews more male, but again, older. And Duff can't hold a candle to Lohan lately, especially in a second week. I think the real kicker here is that this is the sole G-rated wide release of the season (even "Madagascar" was PG). Hellooo families! $111mil.

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LAND OF THE DEAD

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
In the latest installment to George A. Romero's "Dead" series, the world has been taken over by zombies and the human minority struggles to stay alive in a walled city housing a stratified society.

WILL IT SUCK?
Folks, this is George A. Romero. Zombies be his shit.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The only potential crossover here is with "Batman" the week before and "War of the Worlds" the following week and that's not so much competition as something else they'll see. And "High Tension" will have already petered out. $59mil.

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BEWITCHED

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Meta-remake of the TV show in which Will Ferrell plays the guy who plays Darrin, who needs to find a co-star and ends up with a real-life witch (Nicole Kidman).

WILL IT SUCK?
Here's the thing about writer/director Nora Ephron. "Silkwood" and "When Harry Met Sally" are fabulous. "Mixed Nuts" and "Hanging Up" are not. Guess which ones she co-wrote with her sister Delia. Guess who she co-wrote this with. On the other hand, Adam McKay, who co-wrote "Anchorman," is also on board here, so let's hope for the best.

The supporting cast is also encouraging. Michael Caine (is there anyone he isn't mentoring this summer?), Jason Schwartzman, Stephen Colbert AND Steve Carrell, Michael Badalucco, Amy Sedaris...Nick Lachey also makes an appearance, but don't let that get you down.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Kicking and Screaming" revealed chinks in Ferrell's armor, but throw in Kidman and the TV show following and I don't think that will matter. $96mil.

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YES

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Love affair between two foreigners living in London.

WILL IT SUCK?
The real buzz here is going to revolve around the fact that the foreigners are an American woman and a Lebanese Muslim man. There are definite "time to heal" undertones in the flick according to early reviews, which are very mixed. You've got Joan Allen and Sam Neill in the mix, which is a plus, and you've got writer/director Sally Potter ("Orlando") in the creator's chair. Oh, and the whole thing is in iambic pentameter.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This needs to get some traction, though it has a little bit of time. There are articles to be written about the "time to heal" angle and whatever positive buzz was generated at Telluride, even if no awards were handed out. $2mil.

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RIZE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about "Krumping," a dance form you have to see to comprehend. I'll give you a hint, the trailer starts with the words "The images in this film have not been sped up in any way."

WILL IT SUCK?
After you see the trailer, you go "Holy shit that looks cool!" So probably not. Also, director David LaChappelle (let the confusion start now) has been following this for a while, back to when it was called "Clowning" and was a response to the Rodney King riots, so expect a significant political angle as well. This could be June's must-see doc.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The buzz isn't there yet, but Lion's Gate is no slouch. I'm already seeing billboards in Philly subway stations. My guess is they'll target urban centers, and I think it'll work. $7mil.

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MARCH OF THE PENGUINS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
About a new penguin dance that you have to see to comprehend. Actually, it's exactly what the title suggests, a shitload of emperor penguins march over an assload of ice to meet their mate.

WILL IT SUCK?
Look, I love nature docs. I thought "Winged Migration" was off the hook. So you might not want to take my word for it. However, early buzz is strong, and Morgan Freeman narrates, and I could listen to him read microwave directions for 90min. So it's win/win.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Winged Migration" had revolutionary camera techniques and a kick-ass trailer. This has a bunch of fuckin' penguins. (Actually, the trailer's pretty cool, too). Not quite as much of a sensation, is all I'm saying. $200,000.

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June 29

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WAR OF THE WORLDS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Tom Cruise & Dakota Fanning vs. aliens.

WILL IT SUCK?
OK. Here's the thing. I love Spielberg. So, again, you'll have to take all this with a grain of salt. I'll start with what makes me nervous, just to be fair. First off, this is a remake, and Spielberg's history with remakes, however brief ("Always") is not positive. Also, he's going with writer David Koepp here, who shoots about 50%. For every "Spider-man" he'll give you a "Snake Eyes." He delivered "Jurassic Park" for Spielberg, good summer fare at best. He also delivered "Lost World," considered by many to be one of Spielberg's worst efforts.

Now here's what gives me confidence. It's Spielberg. He hasn't made a movie I've truly disliked since...well, I've never seen "Always," did that suck? I usually find at least something I like. Hell, even "1941" has camp value.

Trailers have been outstanding, dating back to the first teaser which directly quoted the original text (which you must read). The alien machines, what little we presumably see, look awesome, and the fact that we probably won't see much is a good sign. And Spielberg's previous sci-fi collaboration with Cruise is one of my favorites (of course, that had Scott Frank at the keyboard).

On the other hand, if this starts out with another Dakota Fanning voiceover a la "Taken" (which Spielberg produced), I think I'll cry.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The best friend this movie has (besides Cruise and Spielberg) is the July 4th weekend. Spielberg hasn't been knocking them out of the park like he used to. But the timing is such that with all the marketing they've been throwing, this'll own the biggest weekend of the summer (with a two day head start). And that may be enough. $278mil.

Next month is a lot more interesting, if only because there's a lot of stuff that isn't so quickly dismissible as crap or laudable as the next "Spider-Man 2." What will Tim Burton make of Johnny Depp-cum-Michael Jackson as Willy Wonka? Will "Stealth" be more "Blue Thunder" or "Airwolf?" Will "The Island" break the streak of crappy, crappy Michael Bay films? Can Richard Linklater make TWO good kid's films? All this and two excellent docs as the summer marches on...

by Dave Thomas