HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Wong Kar Wai following isn't enough to sustain this during one of the busiest indie weekends of the year. $3mil.

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BROKEN FLOWERS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kind of like "High Fidelity" if one of those chicks fathered Cusack's child and he had to figure out who.

WILL IT SUCK?
Did I mention that Cusack in this case is Bill Murray and Stephen Frears is Jim Jarmusch? Now, critics are balking a little at the fact that this is more mainstream than usual for Jarmusch, but that hasn't stopped it from getting raves, being the top rated of all the filmmaker's triumphs on IMDB, and winning, oh, the Grand Prix at Cannes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Focus Features knows how to market Bill Murray. As a result, this could end up being one of Jarmusch's highest-grossing films to date. As far as the Jarmusch faithful go, tickets to an advance screening in Philly were gone in hours (no, I didn't get in). While this might not go quite as far as "Lost in Translation," and may receive a little grief from "Pretty Persuasion" the following weekend, it'll still be a very happy camper. $22mil.

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THE CHUMSCRUBBER

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Dark comedy that starts with a friend's suicide. I said dark comedy.

WILL IT SUCK?
Mixed reviews so far, and a very unusual cast. You've got Jamie Bell from "Billy Elliot," Glenn Close, Allison Janney, Rita Wilson, William Fichtner, Rory Culkin, Ralph Fiennes, Carrie-Ann Moss, Lauren Holly, John Heard, and Jason Isaacs. Haven't seen a trailer yet, but seems like the kind of film that looks better than the reviews would indicate.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If I were this film, I would have wanted to come out last weekend, with virtually no competition and not the same weekend as releases from two major indie directors and one weekend before another dark comedy. But Newmarket can be very effective with pitching unusual material (see "Monster"). $2mil.

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SAINT RALPH

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kid runs the Boston Marathon as a symbolic miraculous gesture on behalf of his ill mother.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early reviews are mixed, but audiences seem to like it. I know, I was hoping it was the long-awaited sequel to "King Ralph," too, but it could still be good. Campbell Scott looks like he'll be fun as Ralph's priest/mentor.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The presence of Scott (and a couple of other recognizable faces, like Jennifer Tilly) plus the push of a mini-major like Samuel Goldwyn could have given this a slight edge back in May, but in a crowded time like this it'll be lucky to break a mil. $750,000.

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SECUESTRO EXPRESS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kidnapping thriller in Caracas.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but writer director Jonathan Jakubowicz seems an interesting one to watch. His first short, "Distance," screened at a lot of big festivals and takes place on 9/11 and apparently takes an intriguing direction from there. He did a doc prior to that about Jewish WWII refugees coming to Venezuela (his home). We'll see if this breaks him, critically.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It probably won't break him commercially. This is part of the Miramax fire sale. $1mil.

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JUNEBUG

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
City girl goes to the country to visit her new beau's relatives. Wacky tension ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is split. Critics love it, audiences hate it. What's interesting is that most of the positive buzz centers on a supporting role. Amy Adams performance as the sister of said beau is drawing raves (and won her an award at Sundance). Also on board (as the happy couple) are Embeth "I was in 'Schindler's List' AND 'Army of Darkness'" Davidtz and Alessandro "I was in 'Face/Off' AND 'Laurel Canyon'" Nivola, both of whom I like.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
What is with the first weekend in August? There are simply too many movies. Half of these could have moved to the previous weekend and eliminated most of their competition. This will probably fall on the lower end of the spectrum. Mid-level indie stars, critical acclaim that does not match word of mouth, and a two-day head start that I don't think will make much difference. I would've released this in the late fall, when an Oscar campaign for Adams might have helped. $400,000.

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AUGUST 12
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DEUCE BIGALOW: EUROPEAN GIGOLO

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
If I have to explain this to you, then you're probably the target audience.

WILL IT SUCK?
Again, if I have to tell you…

I think the only reason they hired the director is because his name is, I shit you not, Mike Bigelow.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If they liked it before… On the other hand, "Dukes" should fill the dumb comedy niche for at least two weekends, so, this could be in trouble. $26mil.

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THE SKELETON KEY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kate Hudson vs. voodoo.

WILL IT SUCK?
Critics are really split on this one, and frankly, you can kind of see it coming. Poor Iain Softley. First he directs "Backbeat," a promising, if flawed, film. Then he goes on to "Hackers" and "K-Pax." And then he has to deal with that unnecessary extra "i" in his first name. And screenwriter Ehren Kruger. He did "The Ring," but he also did "The Ring 2." And "Scream 3." And "Reindeer Games." So you can see how this would swing both ways. And, finally, this has Peter Sarsgaard, which is the one unadulteratedly positive thing I can say about it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Don't be surprised if this exceeds expectations. It's far from horror and major blockbuster releases, unlike "Dark Water" before it. It has to deal with "Red Eye" the following week, but it has the bigger star. $38mil.

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FOUR BROTHERS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Twice as good as "Two Brothers." Okay, nobody remembers that movie? Mark Whalberg and three other guys who were a lot cheaper to cast avenge the death of their adoptive mother.

WILL IT SUCK?
This looks like one of those flicks that would be a guilty pleasure on cable on a Saturday afternoon. Director John Singleton lost all credibility with "2 Fast 2 Furious," and it's going to take more than producing "Hustle and Flow" to win it back. This could help, but one of the writers has "The Watcher" to his credit. You know, the movie with Keanu Reeves as a serial killer? Yeah, that one.

Still ya gotta love casting Josh Charles, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Andre Benjamin, and Terence "I am everywhere" Howard. How much do you want Andre to rap with Whalberg?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
People love the Marky Mark. $61mil.

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THE GREAT RAID

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Based on a true story. Benjamin Bratt leads troops on a raid of a Japanese prison camp in WWII that was really, really…um…great.

WILL IT SUCK?
Critics are split. John Dahl is a strong director. He gave us "The Last Seduction" and "Rounders" and made "Joyride" ten times better than it should have been. On the other hand, I've seen the trailer, and I'm just not feeling Bratt as a military leader. Also, this is a part of the Miramax fire sale, having been delayed for two years. Not a good sign.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think there is an audience for this, but to release it on a crowded weekend before an even more crowded weekend suggests that Miramax is only interested in getting this out the door. They won't pimp it like they usually do. $20mil.

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ASYLUM

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Good girl falls for bad boy. Well, wife falls for mental patient working on dilapidated asylum next door.

WILL IT SUCK?
I think critics will be as split on this as they were on David Mackenzie's last film, "Young Adam." This won't have naked Ewan McGregor (although, really, what film doesn't have naked Ewan McGregor?) but it will have a clothed Sir Ian McKellan as a sort of narrator, and a screenplay co-written by Patrick "Closer" Marber.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Young Adam" didn't do that well, and this one is lacking Little Ewan. $100,000.

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PRETTY PERSUASION

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Schoolgirl accuses her teacher of sexual harassment to get famous. It's a comedy.

WILL IT SUCK?
Critics seem to be split as to whether this is exploitative or clever, and audiences are no more consistent. You've got a director from "Veronica Mars" who somehow also did upcoming Nick Cannon vehicle "Underclassman" and a relative newcomer writer. James Woods, Evan Rachel Wood, Ron Livingston, Selma Blair, and Jane Krakowski should make things interesting.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is probably going to be one of the higer profile indie releases this month. And Jane Krakowski and Evan Rachel Wood practically making out in the trailer probably won't hurt. $10mil.

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GRIZZLY MAN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about a guy who spent his life defending Grizzlies until he was killed by one of them.

WILL IT SUCK?
From legendary director Werner Herzog, whose highest-rated IMDB film is actually a documentary about Kuwait. This one is getting raves and won an award at Sundance. Looks creepy as hell, and the reviews seem to bear this out. Should be fascinating.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is being released by The Discovery Channel, so it'll be interesting to see how they market a theatrical run. I think this might do better with Lion's Gate at the helm touting it as the next "Open Water." Either way this has to overcome "Pretty Persuasion" and a crapload of second frames from the previous week. $100,000.

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AUGUST 19
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VALIANT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Chicken Run" rip-off, er, movie in which CG pigeons, that have nothing to do with "Chicken Run," even though they're British, fight in WWII delivering vital messages while trying to evade the "Falcon Brigade." I think that last part is made up.

WILL IT SUCK?
Did I mention there were "resistance mice?" But again, nothing to do with "Chicken Run." Early buzz is actually pretty good, and I have to admit this has the strongest cast of virtually any film this summer. Ewan McGregor, Tim Curry, Jim Broadbent, Hugh Laurie, John Cleese, John Hurt, and…wait for it…Ricky Gervais! (By the way, Ewan is on his way to winning the Jude Law Ubiquity award for this year. This is his SECOND lead in a CG animated film - third if you count Star Wars - in 2005.)

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Maybe just a wee bit of competition from "Brothers Grimm" next week, but that's about it. As much as I would like to see a non-Pixar Disney CGI flicks fall flat on its face, this will pretty much run the table. $117mil.

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RED EYE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Nick of Time" on a plane.

WILL IT SUCK?
Good cast. Rachel McAdams, Cillian Murphy, Brian Cox. Wes Craven is a "master of horror," but truth be told, he's made a lot of crap ("Deadly Friend" is only the tip of the iceberg). But paired with a good writer, there's a shot. In this case, it's a bloke who wrote the "Halloween" episode of "Buffy."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sandwiched between "Skeleton Key" and "The Cave," but with a better trailer and more marketable pitch than either, not to mention the boost McAdams and Murphy received from "Wedding Crashers" and "Batman Begins" respectively. $82mil.

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THE 40 YEAR-OLD VIRGIN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Steve Carell is a 40 year-old virgin.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is from "Freaks and Geeks" writer/director Judd Apatow who co-wrote the script with Carell, himself a writer on "The Drew Carey Show" (and did you know Carell used to voice one of "The Ambiguously Gay Duo?") "Anchorman" co-star Paul Rudd is also in the mix.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As much of a flop as it will probably be, "Deuce Bigalow" cannot be discounted here, even in its second frame. The hard R here isn't mitigated by big stars, as with "Wedding Crashers." Positive buzz should still help, however. $21mil.

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SUPERCROSS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Okay, you know the dirt bike chase from "Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle?" Imagine two hours of that.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of "Meet the Deedles." Do I really need to say more? If you like your WB, you'll get your fill of "One Tree Hill," or UPN and "Reba," or Fox and "Skin" (wow) or just bad movies with the "Texas Chainsaw" remake - actors from each are here. I'm gonna guess they're going for a young demographic. Oh, and one more link to "Charlie's Angels 2" - Robert Patrick.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Teenybopper audience will flock to "Undiscovered" the following week. $38mil.

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ROMANCE AND CIGARETTES

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
John Turturro directs a musical starring James Gandolfini. That's not the plot. He really did it.

WILL IT SUCK?
Will you look at this cast? Gandolfini, Susan Sarandon, Kate Winslet, Steve Buscemi, Christopher Walken, Mandy Moore (building on her indie cred from "Saved"), Mary Louise-Parker (speaking of "Saved"), and Eddie freakin' Izzard! Turturro's previous writing/directing efforts haven't been home runs, but this certainly seems more unique.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Pretty Persuasion's" second frame might be a bit of an issue, but this has the star power to take all comers. $12mil.

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REEL PARADISE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A lot of people have never heard of John Pierson, but they do know who he broke into the mainstream - Spike Lee, Michael Moore, and Kevin Smith, just to name a few. What I didn't know is that he took his family to the most remote movie theater on Earth - the Meridian on an obscure Fiji island - and ran it for a year. Steve "Hoop Dreams" James made a doc of it.

WILL IT SUCK?
Solid reviews. And why not? Here you have a fantastic doc filmmaker (James also did the heartbreaking "Stevie") covering a legendary film figure in a completely exotic locale with a unique premise. I've seen some of the clips, and one of the first fascinating bits to emerge is the fact that indie guru Pierson programs "Bringing Down the House" and "Jackass" as much as or more than "Rabbit-Proof Fence" or "Bend It Like Beckham."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Me and like five other people are psyched about the John Pierson and/or Steve James element. $100,000.

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AUGUST 26
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THE BROTHERS GRIMM

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"A Bug's Life" or "The Three Amigos" with magic and monsters instead of locusts and banditos.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, and it doesn't help that this is yet another part of the Miramax fire sale. On the other hand, it's a Terry Gilliam joint, and he seems well suited to the material. Heath Ledger and Matt Damon should be passable as the Grimms and Jonathan Pryce, Monica Belluci, and Peter Stormare will make decent adversaries. Ehren Kruger writes, but we've already discussed the ups and downs of that.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Biggest stars of the weekend. The following week, "Transporter 2" might outclass it with smaller stars. $73mil.

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THE CAVE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Cole Hauser and some folks fight creatures beneath the surface of the Earth. They do not however, attempt to drill to the center of the Earth, so they're already ahead.

WILL IT SUCK?
Morris Chestnut and Cole Hauser are good actors, but they often make poor choices ("Anaconda 2," "Papparazzi"). Newcomer writers and director. But the only factor to consider, really, is the presence of Daniel Dae Kim, so it must be seen.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
All sorts of creatures this week ("Brothers Grimm") and next ("A Sound of Thunder"), so it might be tough for this to stand out. $17mil.

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THE CONSTANT GARDENER

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ralph Fiennes investigates the death of his wife (Rachel Weisz) in Africa.

WILL IT SUCK?
They had me at "Directed by Fernando Meirelles." That's the guy who did "City of God" which is just, like, the best movie ever made! Seriously, it's awesome. So why did they team him up with the guy who wrote "Goldeneye?" Also, this is based on a John Le Carre novel and, nothing against him, but his films don't always make the most exciting fare - "The Russia House," "The Tailor of Panama." Am looking forward, however, to Pete Postlethwaite and Bill Nighy in supporting roles.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Think of it like an early Oscar release. I would have pushed further into the fall, when a title with the word "gardener" in it might put more butts in seats, unless it's "The Gardener Who Is Constantly Kicking Your Ass!" Now that's a summer title. $24mil.

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UNDISCOVERED

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A group of young hopefuls tries to make in that crazy, topsy-turvy Mecca that is Los Angeles.

WILL IT SUCK?
Meiert Avis, of several U2 videos (including the gorgeous "All I Want Is You") directs for reasons beyond explanation. The trailer looks like it should be followed by the words "This Fall on Fox!" Ashlee Simpson lends a hand. With Fisher Stevens, Peter Weller, and Carrie Fisher on board, "Rediscovered" seems a better title.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don't know that the Ashlee following is what it used to be. $31mil.

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THE MEMORY OF A KILLER

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Two cops try to track down a killer with Alzheimer's.

WILL IT SUCK?
Has won multiple international awards, including a near sweep of the Belgian Oscars, which are named after Joseph Plateau, the man who discovered persistence of vision. Have you stopped reading yet?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sony Pictures Classics is good at marketing international fare, but I don't think the timing will be kind. $800,000.

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DIRTY DEEDS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kid has 12 hours to complete a series of outrageous (dare I say "dirty?") deeds.

WILL IT SUCK?
Probably the most curious thing about this "American Pie-ish Comedy," besides the fact that it's an indie, is that the production company is a bunch of baseball players, including Jason Giambi, so clearly they need the money.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not nearly as much as any one of these guys makes in a year. $300,000.

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ETERNAL

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Some chicks will do anything to look young. Like bathe in the blood of 650 virgins. Like you've never done anything crazy.

WILL IT SUCK?
Buzz, not so good, but if you need your Sapphic bloodsucker fix, I'm pretty sure "Vampire Lesbian Kickboxers" is out on DVD by now.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Three words: Straight-to-DVD. $200,000.

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THE BAXTER

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Romantic comedy plot #4. Man has to choose between two women.

WILL IT SUCK?
The main spin here isn't so much the plot as it is the generator, writer/director/star Michael Showalter, a driving force behind such fare as "The State," "Stella," and "Wet Hot American Summer." Also features Peter Dinklage, Michelle Williams, Paul Rudd, and Showalter regular Michael Ian Black.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A comedian with a somewhat larger following has a limited release coming out the next weekend ("Margaret Cho: Assassin"), but the "State/Stella" crowd might come in handy. $300,000.

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Next month should be a blast for fans of Joss Whedon, Terry Zwigoff, Lasse Hallstrom, and Tim Burton. But my eye is on the return of Shane Black.

-- Dave Thomas