HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Wallace & Gromit" poses a bit of a problem and then you've got "Elizabethtown" sucking the chick flick air out of the room the next week. $25mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Preliminary but soft buzz for Diaz, maybe MacLaine.

----------------------------------

WALLACE & GROMIT: THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
It's a Wallace & Gromit movie. Who cares what the plot is?

WILL IT SUCK?
Unlikely. You've got the same team, essentially, that put together the shorts that made these two and the first feature from Aardman Animations, "Chicken Run," which proved the formula could work for more than 15 minutes at a time. Early buzz is strong.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's nothing to really challenge this, and anticipation is fairly high. $107mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
All of the W&G shorts have been nominated and two have won. On the other hand, "Chicken Run" didn't get squat, so that part might only work for 15 minutes at a time. Can stop motion make it into the Best Animated category?

----------------------------------

WAITING...

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Caddyshack" for waitstaff.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is actually pretty good. The "Clerks" concept should apply well here, and Ryan Reynolds is the heir apparent to Jason Lee, now that the latter has gone network. Anna Farris, Justin Long, and Luis Guzman should make for decent support.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A lot of the same crew who would be into this, strangely, would also be into "Wallace & Gromit." Still, a good minimal opening is likely, with a small but dedicated pocket of waiters and waitresses looking for their due. If the quality is what advance audiences indicate, it could also have legs. $19mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The caterers will.

----------------------------------

TWO FOR THE MONEY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Wall Street" with bookies. Pacino is Douglas, McConaughey is Sheen.

WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to say at first. Director D.J. Caruso did "Salton Sea," but he also did "Taking Lives." But then something happens that teeters this in the direction of suck. The writer did "Freejack" (which, like this, stars Renee Russo). If you don't think that script had the subtlety requisite for a "Faust" redux, you might wanna skip this.

But hey, Gedde Watanabe is in this! Long Duck Dong! (Or, as I more fondly remember him, Michael Keaton's Japanese counterpart in "Gung Ho").

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not too much direct competition, and as "Sahara" proved, the McConaughey train will not stop. $53mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
McConaughey's last shot at Oscar glory was "A Time to Kill," and the Academy didn't bite.

----------------------------------

THE GOSPEL

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Well, not the entire Gospel. More like just a retelling of the prodigal son at a modern church. Lots of gospel (the music genre) stars as well.

WILL IT SUCK?
Other than the somewhat repetitively named "Trois" trilogy, there's not much in writer/director Rob Hardy's repertoire to cull from. If you like gospel music, you'll probably be entertained. Hezekiah Walker & Delores Winans are up in here along with music from Yolanda Adams and Kirk Franklin. The actual film, from the trailer at least, looks fairly movie-of-the-week.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
After the success of "Diary of a Mad Black Woman" and "Woman, Thou Art Loosed," everybody's all like "Oh, black spiritual flicks are the shit. They'll always make money. It's an underserved audience." Am I gonna jump on that bandwagon? Yes, I am. $51mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Dude, even "The Passion" only got a couple of nods. And that had white people in it.

----------------------------------

THE SQUID AND THE WHALE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Divorce dramedy from the guy who co-wrote "The Life Aquatic."

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is strong from critics. Audiences, not so much. Writer/director Noah Baumbach ("Kicking and Screaming" - not the Will Ferrell one) won the two most appropriate awards at Sundance, directing and writing.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Second frame of "Capote "may be an issue. This week it has to deal with the also-strong-advance-buzz-plus-George-Clooney "Good Night and Good Luck" (also with Jeff Daniels). $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A nod for Laura Linney could happen. A screenwriting nod isn't out of the question, either.

----------------------------------

GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Murrow vs. McCarthy

WILL IT SUCK?
Extremely positive buzz so far. Shitload of awards at Venice. Look for this to be George Clooney's triumphant return to directing (after he said he'd never do it again following his fantastic debut, "Confessions of a Dangerous Mind"). David Strathairn is Murrow and Clooney, Robert Downey Jr, and Patricia Clarkson all have supporting roles. McCarthy is played by McCarthy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Second frame of "Capote" could be a problem, but after that, the coast is clear. $17mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
By all rights they should, but I've got a sneaking suspicion this'll get the "Shattered Glass" treatment. Plenty of critical kudos, and not a single nod.

----------------------------------
OCTOBER 14
----------------------------------

ELIZABETHTOWN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Orlando Bloom goes back home after his dad dies and after losing his employer 1 billion dollars. Meets Kirsten Dunst and cutesiness ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
It'll come a lot closer than most Cameron Crowe films. This underwhelmed at Toronto. Easily Crowe's weakest effort. It's not without the charm of many of his flicks, and the final, final act almost saves it. But it seems to suffer from being underdone, even sloppy. Far too many songs. Far too little focus. Less of the authenticity that seems to permeate so much of his previous work.

Note: Buzz has it that Crowe is re-editing this post-Toronto and prior to release - so there's still hope. I could imagine a re-edit helping immensely, but it would have to be a pretty serious revision.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This still has the most audience-friendly profile around, minus "Wallace & Gromit," which will obviously skew younger (but not that much younger - the tweenies love the Bloom). $48mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
All the editing in the world won't get this to "Almost Famous" or even "Jerry Maguire" Oscar levels.

----------------------------------

THE FOG

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Remake of the John Carpenter horror classic about a fog that kills.

WILL IT SUCK?
It's Revolution Studios so, yes, absolutely, 100%. In addition, you should keep in mind this is directed by the same master of horror who directed the "Can't Touch This" video. Also on board, the writer of "The Core". But, if you want to know what Clark from "Smallville" and Shannon from "Lost" would look like in close proximity to one another, shrouded in fog, here's your chance.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Doom" becomes a bit of an issue the following week. This week, "Elizabethtown" takes some of the female audience, but there's plenty left for this. $52mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The only Revolution Oscar wins so far have been for "Black Hawk Down." This is not that.

----------------------------------

DOMINO

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
True story of female bounty hunger Domino Harvey.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is a bit of a dilemna. On the one hand, the movie rather famously skips over it's main character's sexuality, a recently deceased main character to boot. So notions of trampling on the memory of the dead come to mind. On the other hand, those involved claim Harvey saw a lot of the film before she died and was quite satisfied, so...

Moral quandaries aside, there's a lot to be psyched for here. Tony Scott films are usually shallow, but very entertaining, not to mention gorgeous. And here he's teamed with writers who could actually bring some depth to the proceedings. The screenplay comes from Donnie Darko writer/director Richard Kelly (so that's where he's been). The story comes from Kelly and "Last Seduction" scribe Steve Barancik. Plus you've got Keira Knightley as Domino, with support from Christopher Walken, Delroy Lindo, Mickey Rourke, and Jerry Springer as himself.

I just hope at some point in the film, somebody says "Domino, motherfucker!"

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In a unique position. Is it an action film? A bio-pic? There's nothing like it, but does anyone want to see what it is? For the most part, yes. $52mil. (Just a popular number this week.)

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Rourke gets a nom, it'll be for "Sin City." If Knightley gets a nod, it'll be for "Pride and Prejudice."

----------------------------------

WHERE THE TRUTH LIES

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kevin Bacon and Colin Firth play a famous 50's singing duo who's past comes back to haunt them when a journalist (Alison Lohman) researches an unsolved murder.

WILL IT SUCK?
In spite of Atom Egoyan's strength as a director, early buzz is not so favorable. The critics are more harsh than the audiences, but "Sweet Hereafter" this is not.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Egoyan has a devoted following, but his movies rarely make a lot of dough. Bacon and Firth might help bring in the lay-deez. $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Without better reviews, no.

----------------------------------

INNOCENT VOICES

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Some kids have to choose between summer camp and getting a job. Other kids, like ones in El Salvador in the 80's, have to choose between joining the army or the rebels.

WILL IT SUCK?
Audiences love it, critics hate it. That's the buzz so far. Keep in mind, while slumming in Hollywood, director Luis Mandoki gave us "Angel Eyes" and "Message in a Bottle." But here he's on his home turf, or at least home language.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Word of mouth or no, it's going to need better reviews to get traction. $100,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That opportunity has come and gone. This was Mexico's submission to last year's race.

----------------------------------

EVIL

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Boarding school is hell. Especially in Sweden.

WILL IT SUCK?
I'm gonna guess no if for no other reason than this actually got nominated for Best Foreign Film at last year's Oscars and won the Swedish Oscars for Best Film. Keep an eye on director Mikael Hafstrom. He helmed Clive Owen's upcoming thriller "Derailed."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Beyond the Oscar, not very high profile, and runners up in that category rarely make bank, much less 7 months after the party's over. $100,000.

WILL ANYBODY, UM, I GUESS NOT...

----------------------------------
OCTOBER 21
----------------------------------

SHOPGIRL

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Boy meets girl. Older man meets same girl. Boy rides the bench.

WILL IT SUCK?
No. Very good romantic comedy from the pen of Steve Martin. Clare Danes is fabulous as the shopgirl in question. And Martin and Jason Schwartzman are outstanding as the men vying for her affections.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Elizabethtown" is an issue. But if this gets better buzz... $42mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This is the kind of sweet, clever comedy that routinely gets ignored by the Academy.

----------------------------------

DOOM

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Watch your best friend play "Doom," which occasionally cuts to The Rock for some reason. Seriously, watch the trailer and tell me that's not the premise.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Andrzej Bartkowiak has been on a downward spiral ever since the underrated "Romeo Must Die". Since then, he's brought us "Exit Wounds" (sucked, but had a cool DMX song) and "Cradle 2 the Grave" (practically unwatchable, but had an even cooler DMX song). This time, he doesn't even have Jet Li to fall back on (and, as of yet, no confirmation of any DMX songs, cool or otherwise). The script comes from one newcomer and the guy who wrote "Final Analysis" and "Return to Paradise." But he also wrote "Arachnophobia" and that's kind of like "Doom." Right?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Doom" is like geek Spanish fly. There will be no way to keep the fanboys at bay opening weekend. But that's just opening weekend. Once the hatin' begins, there's no way to stop that either. Look for a verrry sharp dropoff. $56mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even if there were a Best Video Game Adaptation category, "Resident Evil" would stand a better chance.

----------------------------------

NORTH COUNTRY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Story of a historic sexual harrassment suit in a mining community.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is from "Whale Rider" maestro Niki Caro, and stars Charlize Theron in the lead, with support from Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson (taking the Ed Norton role from his own "People vs. Larry Flynt"), Sean Bean, Sissy Spacek, and character actor fave Xander Berkeley. Early buzz is strong.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If only it weren't so crowded. $35mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
You bet your ass. Look for Theron to score another Best Actress nod, and for Caro to be the third woman ever nominated for Best Director.

----------------------------------

STAY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ewan McGregor tries to stop Ryan Gosling from killing himself, and there's some weird "Stir of Echoes"-type shit thrown in as well.

WILL IT SUCK?
You'd think that director Marc Forster ("Monster's Ball," "Finding Neverland") and writer David Benioff ("25th Hour", um..."Troy") could come up with something that would produce a better trailer, but maybe that's marketing's mistake. You can't complain about the cast, though, which also includes Naomi Watts.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's a horror glut this time of year, and "from the director of 'Finding Neverland'" isn't really going to help. $36mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but can we give Gosling a retroactive Oscar for "The Believer?"

----------------------------------

DREAMER: INSPIRED BY A TRUE STORY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Seabiscuit" with, uh, a, um, it's just "Seabiscuit."

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is split, which is not surprising when you know that the writer (who also directed this time) also penned "Coach Carter" and "Summer Catch." Somewhere in between those two, presumably, lies this. Also, there's The Dakota Fanning Factor. She just creeps some people out.

Do you really need to say "Inspired by a True Story" in the title? I suppose that's better than "Dreamer: Inspired by Some Shit I Smoked Last Night." Actually, I'd probably watch that.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Zorro" provides a little competition next week, but this should do okay. $62mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think a lot more consistent reviews have to pour in before that happens.

----------------------------------

KISS KISS, BANG BANG

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Babes, bullets, and post-modern references from the once and future master of the action comedy, Shane Black.

WILL IT SUCK?
Hell, no. This is one of the funniest films of the year. Sends up noir and buddy action films while being an excellent example of both. Robert Downey Jr. and Val Kilmer are excellent and play off each other well (but it's Downey's voice-over narration that nearly steals the show). Everything you hoped Black could pull off after the decline of "Lethal Weapon" into "Last Boy Scout" into "Long Kiss Goodnight."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
They have to stop moving around the release date. First it was September, then November, now October. They also have to come up with a better trailer. If things stay as they are, I don't see anticipation being high enough for a decent opening. Also, this is a major studio release (Warner Bros.), but it's limited. My guess is they're trying to build word of mouth. If they can get their shit together, I think that might actually work. $60mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There is a little buzz surrounding Downey Jr. I think that's optimistic, though well-deserved. I'd be even happier to see a screenplay nod for Black, but I think that 's equally unlikely.

----------------------------------

USHPIZIN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
An Israeli Orthodox Jewish couple's faith is tested by two unexpected guests.

WILL IT SUCK?
This was a huge critical success in its native Israel, where it won an Israeli Oscar for Best Actor (and nods for screenplay and supporting actor). Early buzz here is positive as well.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A huge commercial success in Israel as well. But that don't mean much here, where Israeli cinema is only just now starting to get noticed in the art houses. $50,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Israel decides to submit it, which seems likely, it's got a shot at Best Foreign.

----------------------------------

KIDS IN AMERICA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kids vs. Principal

WILL IT SUCK?
Absolutely. Just watch the trailer. The only reason this movie got made is because of Nicole "Reflected, um, Glory?" Richie, who plays one of the cheerleading teens, of course. The writer/director wrote not for "Sabrina the Teenage Witch," which might even be respectable depending upon the season, but instead wrote for "Sabrina the Animated Series" and "Honey I Shrunk the Kids." Not the movie. The TV show. Yeah, there was a TV show.

And if you're wondering what happened to George Wendt, he's here. Sigh.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This could have Paris Hilton in it and it still wouldn't make much bank. $5mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No. No, no, no, no. No.

----------------------------------

BARELY LEGAL

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kids try to make a porn.

WILL IT SUCK?
Almost certainly. But I am curious to see what the director of "First Kid" (not to mention "Beethoven 3 & 4") does with this material.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it even shows up on the radar, I'll be very impressed. $600,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but since when is limited release the preferred venue for teen sex romps?

----------------------------------

EMMANUEL'S GIFT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about a man with one leg who cycles across Ghana, a place where the disabled are either killed or shunned for life.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is positive. For those of you not down with the Winfrey, be warned that Oprah narrates.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This could have the kind of sleeper effect of the "Penguins." I say this because Oprah will likely rally her troops on TV. Still, we're not talking penguin bucks here. $3mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I could see it making a run for doc gold.

----------------------------------

WASABI TUNA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kind of like a gay "Midnight Madness."

WILL IT SUCK?
Very mixed reviews here. Critics are calling it a camp classic, while early audiences find it horrific. That's a reversal of the trashy comedy review dynamic we usually see. But to look at the trailer, it does kind of seem like a genuinely funny SNL sketch that goes on way too long. And that's not just because of Tim Meadows' presence. Oh, and Anna Nicole Smith is in it. As herself. Maybe that's what sinks it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Gay comedies have a hard enough time of it with good word of mouth. $100,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Tim Meadows might win an award for Longest Suffering.

----------------------------------
OCTOBER 28
----------------------------------

THE WEATHER MAN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Character study with Nicolas Cage as a weather man in Chicago.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz compares this favorably to "American Beauty." Michael Caine should help. And having Gore Verbinski at the helm should make for a decent look, as he brought a little extra visual depth to genre flicks like "The Ring "and "Pirates of the Caribbean" (and the movies themselves didn't suck, either).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Who's gonna have time for a character study when Zorro's about? Even on the drama front, the far more high profile "Jarhead" opens the following week (from the guy who actually directed "American Beauty"). $37mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That's precisely why this was delayed from the spring. Look for Cage to make another run at Oscar Number Two. Maybe Caine, as well. Waaaaay outside shot for Verbinski, but I doubt it.

----------------------------------

SAW II

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
More sadistic games from everyone's favorite indie serial killer, Jigsaw.

WILL IT SUCK?
They were unable to keep the original writer and director except in exec producer capacity, with a relative newcomer on board to direct from his own screenplay (co-written or touched up at least by the original screenwriter). Not a good sign. But hey, Donnie Wahlberg! How about that?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Problem is, "Saw" turned off as many people as it turned on in its initial run, so you're going to lose that curiosity factor and be left with the die hard fans. $32mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Goriest Poster (Before They Were Forced to Change It). It's one of those technical awards they hand out at a "previously held ceremony."

----------------------------------

PRIME

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Psychoanalyst (Meryl Streep) finds out her patient (Uma Thurman) is dating her son (Some Guy You've Never Heard Of).

WILL IT SUCK?
This is from writer/director Ben Younger, who had the same credits on "Boiler Room." This doesn't seem like it could be nearly as good as "Boiler Room," but you never know.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don't think the cast, premise, or trailer is gonna be enough to draw audiences away from other fare, like "Zorro," which has a surprisingly high female demo.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It's conceivable that either Thurman or (shockers!) Streep give Oscar-worthy performances here, but I don't see it happening just yet.

----------------------------------

THE LEGEND OF ZORRO

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Just when he thinks he's out (and with a kid) they pull him back in.

WILL IT SUCK?
Usually adding a kid to the mix is a surefire way to jump the shark, be it series or franchise. And Martin Campbell is really not my favorite director, although the one thing he did do that I liked was the first Zorro, so... To boot, they've thrown some pretty serious writing talent at this. You've got a couple of "Alias" regulars, plus two of the guys responsible for "Shrek" and "Pirates of the Caribbean." That's practically overkill for a movie like this. And I like it.

Plus, you've got one of my favorite villain character actors, Nick Chinlund, up in here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Its biggest challenge comes from "Chicken Little" the following week, and even that's not a surefire hit. $112mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Most Unnecessarily Delayed Sequel?

----------------------------------

THREE...EXTREMES

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Three short horror films, three Asian directors. Takeshi Miike ("Audition"), Fruit Chan ("Made in Hong Kong"), and Chan-Wook Fucking Park ("Oldboy").

WILL IT SUCK?
The premise of this collection is about as intimidating as the film itself must be. Three of the most hard-core independent Asian directors given free reign and encouraged to make their product "extreme" (and not in a wimpy Mountain Dew way). Advance buzz is quite good, with Fruit Chan's "Dumplings" segment getting the most acclaim from festivals so far. And that's the one buy the guy I've never heard of. And not for nothing, but the scariest horror trailer of the year by far.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is a very niche genre. Sadly, a lot of these guys don't get noticed until their films are remade for American audiences. $800,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Which country would submit it?

----------------------------------

SOMERSAULT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Chick falls for some guy. Complications ensue.

WILL IT SUCK?
Won a crapload of Australian awards, including a near-sweep of the Australian Film Institute Awards. Early critical buzz is strong.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With a Sony Pictures Classics pushing it, maybe. With Magnolia Pictures, it's a tougher sell. $100,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even though they have different words for "beer" than us, I don't think Australia qualifies for the Foreign Language Film category.

----------------------------------

PARADISE NOW

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A drama about suicide bombers. I'm sure that won't ruffle any feathers.

WILL IT SUCK?
Promises to be a challenging work. Already received serious praise at Berlin, and getting mad critical buzz here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The good folks at Warner Independent are no dummies. They'll parlay the controversy surrounding the film (once the controversy itself has been hyped - I predict column inches in the NY and LA Times for starters) into dollars. $7mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A little too hot button I think.

Next month, Harry Harry Potter, y'all!

-- Dave Thomas