Regardless, the cast is stellar, including Jake Gyllenhaal, Jamie Foxx, Peter Sarsgaard, Chris Cooper, Sam Rockwell, and Dennis Haysbert.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Anticipation for this film is fairly high, and I think it will deliver. $76mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This is practically designed for such a feat. And with distance from the election and record unease with the current war, nobody's gonna be afraid to rain down nods. Look for Foxx, Gyllenhaal, and maybe (keep your fingers crossed) Sarsgaard, to get some love, along with Mendes for Best Director and Broyles for Best Adapted. Best Picture? Let's see what happens with "Syriana."

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THE MATADOR

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"The Whole Nine Yards," indie-style.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, which is ironic considering the cheesy-as-hell trailer, which really does make it look like "Nine Yards Redux" with Pierce Brosnan in the Bruce Willis role and Greg Kinnear in the Matthew Perry role. Do you suppose those are the indie equivalents?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is one of the more high-profile indies, but the marketing campaign could be a bust. You can't sell wacky comedy to the art house crowd unless it's, like, French or something.

This is one of the first trailers to bear the new Weinstein Bros. logo (although it also has the Miramax insigna) so it'll get a healthy marketing push, but if they try too hard to make it look suburban-friendly to draw a larger crowd, they'll just end up alienating their hard core following and disappointing their potential recruits. $30mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Way outside shot for Brosnan.

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I LOVE YOUR WORK

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Giovanni Ribisi plays a movie star who becomes a stalker (while being stalked by Jason Lee). Adam Goldberg directs.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is bad. Also not comforting that it took this long to get distribution (although plenty of good films take time). Decent cast, though: Judy Greer, Vince Vaughan, Christina Ricci, Elvis Costello, and Nicky Katt all join Ribisi and Lee.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The underrated comedian niche will be overtaken by Sarah Silverman the following week. This week, it'll need better reviews. $600,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Adam Goldberg's most Oscar-worthy work was in "Dazed and Confused," and look how that turned out.

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THE DYING GAUL

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Campbell Scott, Patricia Clarkson, and Peter Saarsgard in a movie about a screenwriter (Saarsgard) who tries to sell a gay-themed script to Campbell, only to have to change certain key elements (guess which ones). Betrayal, adultery, maybe even murder ensue.

WILL IT SUCK?
Directing debut of screenwriter Craig Lucas ("Longtime Companion," "Secret Lives of Dentists"). Nominated for a Grand Jury prize at Sundance, but since has gotten very mixed buzz. Still, the thought of seeing these three indie heavyweights share screen time is tempting.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Strand needs to amp up the marketing on this one. I don't think awareness is where it needs to be. If the arthouse crowd gets a wind of this especially in strong gay markets, it could at least start off well before word of mouth broke or saved it. $2mil.

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NOVEMBER 11
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ZATHURA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Jumanji" in space.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is actually pretty good. Like "Jumanji" (same author) the premise is a little cheesy but, like "Jumanji," not terrible and, handled well, could be pretty entertaining.

Here John Favreau ("Elf," "Made") is at the helm and seems capable of delivering the goods, especially with 50% shooter David Koepp ("Spider-man," "Lost World") writing with help from the guy who wrote the Power Rangers movie (which is a good or a bad thing, depending on your point of view).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's a little movie called "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" that might drum up some kid business the following week (and a kid's film called "Chicken Little" the week before) but other than that, this should be fine. $61mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This film eschews CG (for the most part) in favor of old school fx, so don't be surprised if it makes a run for that category.

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DERAILED

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Blackmailer Vincent Cassel just won't leave that poor adulterous couple (Clive Owen, Jennifer Aniston) alone.

WILL IT SUCK?
Unlikely. In spite of a cheesy trailer, which tries to pull the "Red-Eye" trailer rope-a-dope "aw it's a nice romantic comedy oh, no, he's got a gun!" schtick, this has Mikael Hafstrom (Best Foreign Film nominee "Evil") at the helm and "Collateral" scribe Stuart Beattie penning the screenplay. The combo of Owen and Cassel should almost be as much fun as the combo of Xzibit and RZA.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don't know that anticipation is gonna be high enough. This is one of the first titles out of the Weinstein Bro. company and it's unclear just how much marketing muscle they'll weild. Plus, there's nothing in the trailer to make this look like anything other than a run of the mill thriller, which might only bring in medium bucks with Owen and Aniston as the draw. $34mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
"Closer" this ain't.

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GET RICH OR DIE TRYIN'

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"50 Cent Mile"

WILL IT SUCK?
Arguments about 50 Cent himself aside, putting his story in the hands of master director Jim Sheridan is a genius move, right up there with having Curtis Hanson tell Eminem's tale. Although the writer of "8 Mile", or any of Sheridan's previous efforts for that matter, isn't here, a key writer for both "The Sopranos" and "The PJ's" is and, really, isn't this story just a combination of those?

And the cherry on top? Terence Freakin' Howard.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Note to marketers, the poster of 50 Cent with the baby is gonna get you less complaints than the poster of him with a gun. On the other hand, the one with him and a gun is getting you more free press, so what do I know?

Anyway, the 50 Cent following will come out en masse to greet him, even in a drama. Look for a strong opening mitigated by the release of "Harry Potter Cent" the following week. Also, it will be interesting to see who more people come out to watch, 50 Cent or Johnny Cash ("Walk the Line" opens the following week as well). $46mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Sheridan loses nods when he leaves his home turf. All he got for "In America," which many consider to be his best work, was a screenwriting nom. And Curtis couldn't direct Eminem to more than a (rather surprising) Best Song Award. Likely nothing here for Fiddy.

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BEE SEASON

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Family drama centered on a spelling bee.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, with the Jewish mysticism angle turning a few folks off. Still, if you like Richard Gere and/or the directing duo's previous effort, "The Deep End," you might want to check it out. Or, if you're like me and you barely remember that there was a movie called "The Deep End" (it had Tilda Swinton and Goran Visnjic), you might not care so much.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably the second biggest kid on the indiewood block (after "Pride and Prejudice") this week. $9mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If the reviews improve dramatically, maybe an Adapted nod or something for Gere, but I doubt it. If they wanna spice up the event, though, I say make every presenter spell a really hard word.

SARAH SILVERMAN: JESUS IS MAGIC

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Pseudo-sketch comedy/stand-up concert flick from Sarah Silverman.

WILL IT SUCK?
Buzz is overwhemlingly positive for this raunchy (I had to verify my age before I could watch the trailer) flick. Plus, it has Bob Odenkirk, so sign me up.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
After "Bee Season" and "P&P," probably the most anticipated indie release of the week. Also has the support of "The Aristocrats'" success. $6mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
"The Aristocrats" first.

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PULSE (KAIRO)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Another J-Horror flick(apparently that's what the kids call the scary Japanese imports these days), this one with the internet as the menace instead of phones and videotapes.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz says no. Apparently this takes the ghost story and adds a little philosophical/technical isolation theme for kicks. Might as well see it now before the American remake with Veronica Mars.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sadly, the remake is when most people will actually hear about this flick. $600,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Considering this came out in 2001, not so much.

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DUANE HOPWOOD

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Leaving Atlantic City." With David Schwimmer as Nicolas Cage.

WILL IT SUCK?
Writer/director Matt Mulhern is kind of an x-factor. But he's from Philly so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. A bigger problem is Schwimmer. I don't know that I'm convinced he can pull of the alcoholic dad bit, but I give him props for branching out. Early buzz is fair.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Too small to get a decent release. Though it's nice to see another "Friends" alum go indie. $200,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
An unbelievably good performance from Schwimmer would land him an Independent Spirit nod.

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GOOD MORNING, NIGHT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Dramatization of the real-life kidnapping and assasssination of Italian political leader Aldo Moro.

WILL IT SUCK?
In spite of praise abroad, criticism here is harsh.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sadly, confusion with "Good Night, and Good Luck" won't help, and neither will the fact that this is an extremely crowded weekend for indies. $400,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Italy's already made its choice for Best Foreign submission, and it ain't this.

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PRIDE AND PREJUDICE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Darcy. Some chick. An inheritance, probably. Didn't you read this in school?

WILL IT SUCK?
Actually, it's quite good. It's no BBC version, of which I watched all 5 hours straight, thank you very much. But Donald Sutherland does a better job than expected and Keira Knightley runs away with the lead.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It should do handsomely, at least in indie dollars. $33mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Look for Keira to make a Best Actress run.

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TAKE MY EYES

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Domestic abuse drama from Spain.

WILL IT SUCK?
Unbelievably good press and a shitload of international awards, including a near sweep of the Goyas (Spanish Oscars). Probably doesn't suck.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Without a bigger marketing push or at least a move to a less crowded weekend, I don't see all the good reviews in the world helping much. $300,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
2003 release date.

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NOVEMBER 18
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HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Tri-wizard Tournament, Hormones, and Voldemort all make an appearance.

WILL IT SUCK?
Probably not. The big factor here is new director Mike Newell. Ever since Chris Columbus jumped ship, the franchise has been shuffling helmers. So far (with a sample size of one) this has worked. Alfonso Cuaron brought a real visual flair and cohesiveness to installment number three. However, Newell isn't known so much for his visual style as for his sometimes mediocre romantic comedies ("Pushing Tin"). But anyone who can make both "Four Weddings and a Funeral" and "Donnie Brasco" probably has the range to take this on.

On a much more positive note, Steve Kloves is back doing the adaptation again, which is more important than ever as (a) many fans consider this to be the best novel in the series and (b) it's as long as the Bible. On an even more positive note, Kloves has been tapped to adapt "The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Nighttime."

Cool casting continues, with additions ranging from Brendan Gleeson to the lead singer of Pulp (and some Radiohead members) in a cameo as a band. Oh, and perhaps the most perfect casting in the series yet with Ralph Fiennes as Voldemort.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
All of this movie's potential competition (with the exception of the ballsy "Walk the Line," which isn't really competition anyway) have evacuated this weekend. A lot of talk has been made of the box office slump. As of a month or so ago, Hollywood was about $250 million shy of having its second best year ever. Watch this film single-handedly make that happen. $251mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The usual slew of music and visual effects nods.

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Walk the Line

WALK THE LINE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Johnny Cash bio-pic.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very good. Like, better-than-"Ray" good. I've always thought that Joaquin Phoenix, who plays Cash, was underrated, so this may be his moment to shine. And writer/director James Mangold had me since the underrated "Copland," and this might make up for "Kate and Leopold," as much as anything could.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The only movie with the cajones (or perhaps the demographics) to open against "Potter." The following week, a smorgasbord of films could offer a challenge, but the anticipation for this one is actually pretty high. Johnny Cash fans, unite! $75mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Definitely Phoenix. Likely Reese Witherspoon, who plays June Carter. Maybe Mangold (more likely for Adapted Screenplay than Director, though).

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BREAKFAST ON PLUTO

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
In Neil Jordan's latest, a transvestite prostitute named Kitten (Cilian Murphy) goes in search of his mother in turbulent 70's London.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz, not so good, in spite of Jordan's track record. This is more of a critic's lament, as audiences tend to put it up in "Crying Game" territory. No one, however, is complaining about Murphy's performance. Good supporting cast: Liam Neeson, Brendan Gleeson, Stephen Rea. There's a freakin' Dalek in the trailer, so I'm sold, but most people need more.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Whereas the previous weekend, every single indie film known to man is opening, virtually nothing else but this enters the arthouse circuit this week. $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Without better reviews or box office, Murphy will be forgotten.

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NOVEMBER 23
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RENT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Adaptaion of the Tony Award winning musical in which, according to "Team America," "Everybody's got AIDS!!!"

WILL IT SUCK?
How many things are wrong with this project? Maybe not 525,600, but let's see.

1. It's Revolution Studios. That right there should be the first and last nail in the coffin, but there's more.

2. The guy who directed this directed "Stepmom."

3. The guy who helped adapt this wrote "Christmas with the Kranks." (Same guy as reason number two, btw. Chris Columbus).

4. It's PG-13.

The only thing they did right, far as I can tell, is to keep most of the original cast. That's about it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's hard to keep a crap musical adaptation down. But not impossible. "Phantom of the Opera" couldn't rely on its fan base to overcome bad reviews, and neither, I suspect, will this, even with a wider, more fortuitously timed opening. $52mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not unless it's about a billion times better than expected.

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YOURS, MINE AND OURS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Cheaper by the Dozen-and-a-Half"

WILL IT SUCK?
Hey, the director had the dedication to helm both "Scooby Doo" movies.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Good placement. Thanksgiving weekend. It sure would be embarrasing, though, if the movie this were ripping off had a sequel coming out. Oh, right. Well, "Cheaper by the Dozen 2" doesn't come out until December 21st, so, this should be safe. I really wish I were making that last part up. $76mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Worst Punctuation. Isn't there supposed to be a comma after "Mine?"

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THE ICE HARVEST

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Quick Change" in Wichita.

WILL IT SUCK?
A lot depends upon which Harold Ramis shows up to direct, the one who did "Groundhog Day" and "Caddyshack," or the one who directed "Stuart Saves His Family" and "Club Paradise." Early buzz seems to indicate the former. John Cusack and Billy Bob Thornton might even make up for "Pushing Tin," especially with Oliver Platt there to help.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Cusack dark comedies like "Grosse Pointe Blank" tend not to do that well, and Harold Ramis dark comedies like "Analyze This" have the full support of Billy Crystal and Robert DeNiro. $28mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I dream of the day when Cusack starts taking on roles again that could lead to this eventuality.

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JUST FRIENDS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ryan Reynolds in a fat suit.

WILL IT SUCK?
Hey, the director had the dedication to helm both "Cruel Intentions" movies.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not too much competition, though "Ice Harvest" and the second frame of "Harry Potter" will nip a bit at the demo. The bigger problem is Reynolds, who couldn't close with "Waiting..." $14mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but I think one celebrity should be chosen at random each year, and put in a fat suit to present.

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IN THE MIX

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Usher plays a DJ-cum-bodygaurd to a mafia princess.

WILL IT SUCK?
I repeat, "Usher plays a DJ-cum-bodygaurd to a mafia princess." And though director Ron Underwood has had a long and varied career, I'm guessing this will be more "Adventures of Pluto Nash" and less "City Slickers."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Who do you think has more fans, Usher or 50 Cent? $17mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Okay, one more time for the cheap seats, "Usher plays a DJ-cum-bodygaurd to a mafia princess."

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SYRIANA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
George Clooney in a fat suit. No, actually, he gained the weight himself for the lead in this "Traffic"-esque expose of the oil industry.

WILL IT SUCK?
When I say "Traffic"-esque, I ain't just whistling Oscar-bait. Same writer, Stephen Gaghan, who also directs here. That should actually be a little bit of a concern, since the last time he did that we ended up with "Abandon," but I think this will be different. Clooney is joined here by Matt Damon, Chris Cooper, Jeffrey Wright, and Tim Blake Nelson. In terms of potential, this is the one to watch.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think it's a mistake to open this limited. This has a strong enough cast and pre-release buzz to open against any of this week's wide releases. It can certainly clean the floor with its limited release competition, but that's still a wasted opportunity. $36mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Depending on how the politics start shaking out over the next few months you could be looking at Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor, Best Director, and Best Picture nods.

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THE LIBERTINE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Earl of Rochester was a 17th century poet whose biographers often close with the phrase "riddled with syphillis." This is Johnny Depp's take on a man who liked to drink, screw, and occasionally write poems.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and you can't complain about the cast, which also includes Samantha Morton and John Malkovich.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Syriana's" gonna be the 400lb indie gorilla this weekend, so everyone else will have to fight for table scraps. This will get most of them. $5mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
With the old Miramax pushing this, yes. With the new Miramax pulling the strings, it's hard to say. On the one hand, the Academy likes Depp. On the other hand, will a far more high profile turn in "Willy Wonka" confuse the issue?

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STREETS OF LEGEND

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Fast and the Furious" with, like, really low production values.

WILL IT SUCK?
Won a cinematography award at Sundance a couple years back. That's probably because they strapped digital cameras onto souped-up cars and actually drove them at 140mph. As far as story, acting, or any of that crap, the buzz ain't so hot.

Still probably better than "The Fast and the Furious."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The bottom of the barrel this week in terms of exposure or star power. Lions Gate will do their best, but it's a hard sell. $200,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Indie Spirit Awards gave it a few nods back in da day. I don't think Oscar's gonna come a-knockin' now.

Next month, we'll actually be able to confirm or refute your claims about King Kong "not havin' shit" on you.