WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Huffman's a near lock for a nod.

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THE KID & I

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kid with cerebral palsy wants to be an action star so, of course, he teams up with Tom Arnold.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty bad. Director Penelope Spheeris directed, as the cringetastic trailer happily points out, "Wayne's World," but that's not a get-out-of-jail-free card for "The Beverly Hillbillies" or "The Little Rascals." Tom Arnold did the screenplay.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even if this has bigger stars (including a supposed cameo from Jamie Lee Curtis and The Guvernator) than most limited releases this weekend, it's still a limited release, and not exactly appealing to the right crowd for a limited release. Not that it would do much better wide. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Henry Winkler can't get an Emmy for playing a schlub on "Arrested Development," he won't get an Oscar for playing one here.

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FIRST DESCENT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"March of the Snowboarders"

WILL IT SUCK?
Do you like snowboarding? That's pretty much the only criteria for this snowboarding doc. If not, I don't see it holding much interest for ya.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Very strong appeal to a very niche audience. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Did not make the list of eligible documentaries.

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BE HERE TO LOVE ME: A FILM ABOUT TOWNES VAN ZANDT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
In spite of the title, actually a film about Roger Van Norton, a contractor from Des Moines.

Or a profile of famed (well, among musicians) songwriter Van Zandt.

WILL IT SUCK?
Fascinating story. Suffered from depression and alcohol. Fell off a building to see what it was like. Okay, maybe this is fairly typical "Behind the Music" fare, but it's still interesting. Interviews with Willie Nelson, Emmylou Harris, and Steve Earle, among others.

Early buzz is good, in spite of being delayed from July.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Palm Pictures not so much with the heavy promotion, but I'll give them props for taste (they also distributed a Tom Dowd doc). $50,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even if it had made the list, it would have had to compete with the higher profile "Devil and Daniel Johnston," also about a troubled musician.

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DECEMBER 9
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THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH, AND THE WARDROBE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The "other" epic fantasy classic.

WILL IT SUCK?
I've got pretty high hopes for this one. You've got Andrew Adamson directing, one of the driving forces behind the "Shrek" movies. You've got writing support from him and writers from "Life and Death of Peter Sellers" (and "In My Country," but what are ya gonna do?).

You've also got Tilda Swinton as The White Witch, which, apparently, is a good thing (I've never read the books). And with voice support from the likes of Rupert Everett, Ray Winstone, and Liam Neeson, it looks like we're in for a fun ride.

By the way, did you know that J.R.R. Tolkien and C.S. Lewis knew each other? Actually, if you're a fan at all of these series you probably did. Never mind.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it weren't for Mr. Kong, I'd call this the hit of December. As it is, it'll still make much bank. $273mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This seems very much like a spoiler for me. I could see it getting ignored completely or taking it all (minus acting), but little in between.

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BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Gay cowboys!!!

WILL IT SUCK?
Not at all. Caught this at Toronto and lemme tell ya, it's one of the best movies of the year. And for a guy like Ang Lee to surpass himself is quite a feat.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's a busy time for indies regardless, but I wouldn't wish anyone to have to open against "Memoirs of a Geisha." That having been said, Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger have a decent following, and Focus isn't slacking on the press. $15mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If all goes well, it could be up for Cinematography, Director, Adapted Screenplay, a Best Actor nod for Ledger, and Picture.

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MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Pretty much what the title indicates.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, but just barely. With Rob Marshall (Chicago) at the helm, you'd expect that at least. With screenwriters from "Practical Magic," you might not expect much more. The cast, however, fuggeddaboutit: Gong Li, Ken Watanabe, Michelle Yeoh, and Zhang Ziyi as the geisha herself.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little bit of competition from "Brokeback" this week and "Three Burials" the next, but nothing this crew can't handle. $54mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
What this may lack in strong reviews it will make up for in box office. Look for Director and Actress/Supporting Actress nods. Maybe Picture.

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MAREBITO

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
J-Horror about a guy with a camera obsession who takes in a naked, bloodsucking nymph he finds in a parallel universe.

WILL IT SUCK?
The movie is just as random as the premise makes it sound. It's a little bit scary at times, but that's about it. And at no point does it even attempt to make sense. Which, if you've seen a lot of J-Horror, shouldn't be a shock.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
December just isn't the time for Japanese horror flicks. $600,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think it would be neat if Japan submitted a horror film, but this year they picked a movie with Beat Takeshi as a brutally abusive drunk which, from what I've heard, is a hell of a lot more harrowing than any ghost-in-the-machine flick.

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MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Judi Dench opens an all-female nude revue in 1930's London.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, but not overwhelming. Still, it's Stephen Frears ("High Fidelity," "Dirty Pretty Things," "Dangerous Liasons"), so I'm in. Adding to the Dame Denchiness is Bob Hoskins (who apparently has a nude scene) and Christopher Guest as the Easily Offended Rich White Guy.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A side effect of shooting for an Oscar is a crowded marketplace. $9mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That's the idea. This will be a good test of whether or not the new Weinstein entity can pan for Oscar gold the way Miramax used to, which is to say, shamelessly. Look for Best Actress and Actor, at least.

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THE WORLD'S FASTEST INDIAN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Anthony Hopkins plays the man who set the land speed world record in the 1970's by riding a cheetah. Okay, he was actually on a modified motorcycle.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very good. Looks like writer/director Roger Donaldson is building on the potential he showed with "Thirteen Days" (and didn't so much with "The Recruit").

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's not that Anthony Hopkins can't open a picture anymore (he can't) or that the title is problematic (it is) but even without all of that, Magnolia doesn't have the marketing muscle of the Weinsteins, Focus, or Sony. $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That's the whole point of this limited December run. The real release will happen in January.

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DECEMBER 16
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KING KONG

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Big-ass ape goes berserk in New York.

WILL IT SUCK?
With the same writing/directing team as the "LOTR" trilogy, not bloody likely. Add to that Jack Black, Adrian Brody, Naomi Watts, and shoulda-got-the-Oscar-for-Gollum Andy Serkis as that big, crazy gorilla and I'm there opening night or sooner.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's got a two-day head start on "The Family Stone." Like it needs it. $375mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Look for "LOTR"-style non-acting nods: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, plus a crapload of technical awards. A Serkis nod for Best Actor would be cool, but it ain't gonna happen.

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THE FAMILY STONE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
No apes? Then who cares?

WILL IT SUCK?
When your meet-my-wacky-family flick is being compared favorably with "You Can't Take It with You," you're on good turf. Luke Wilson, Rachel McAdams, Clare Danes, Diane Keaton, Dermot Mulroney, Craig T. Nelson, and Sarah Jessica Parker round out what looks to be a solid cast. Are we looking at a tolerable holiday comedy?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I give it credit for opening against "King Kong," although the tougher thing would be to open against "Cheaper by the Dozen 2" the following week. $42mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
We'll have to see how the acting categories shake out, but comedy's a tough sell.

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THE THREE BURIALS OF MELQUIADES ESTRADA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Tommy Lee Jones (in his directorial debut) takes on a corrupt border patrolman in an effort to return a corpse to Mexico.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writer of "Amores Perros" and "21 Grams," so expect it to be harsh. Early buzz is oustanding, and the flick won Best Actor (Tommy Lee Jones) and Screenplay at Cannes (along with a Palme D'Or nod for Jones). Also with Barry Pepper and Dwight Yoakam.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Any other time of year, this would be the 500lb gorilla (excuse the reference). $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Maybe a Best Actor nod for Jones. And they tend to like their actors-turned-director. Still, I don't see this being on their radar.

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MASTER OF THE CRIMSON ARMOR (a.k.a. THE PROMISE)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Fairly fakey-looking Wuxia epic from the director of "Farewell My Concubine."

WILL IT SUCK?
In spite of the cheesy-looking fx, this is China's submission for Best Foreign Language Film, so at least they have confidence in it. It's also the most expensive Chinese film to date, which make those fx even more boggling.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If they could pick a title, it might do better. $600,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'm not seeing the Weinstein Co. Oscar Engine revving up the way it usually does, so I'm not so sure.

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THE PRODUCERS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Remember that movie "The Producers" which became a musical? Now it's a movie again.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good, which is not surprising given the smart choices. One, hiring Susan Stroman, who won 5 Tony Awards (two for directing and choreographing this on Broadway) to direct. Two, having Mel Brooks do the screenplay with Thomas Meehan who collaborated with him on "To Be or Not to Be" and "Spaceballs" (and who's been tapped to write the next movie-t0-musical-back-to-movie transfer "Hairspray"). Three, getting Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick back on board after their succesful Broadway run as the leads in this. Four, adding Will Ferrell to the mix as Franz Liebkind, the wacky Nazi.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don't really know why they're releasing this limited. Sure, Kong is an issue, but this is really a different demo. Regardless, it should do well. $87mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think that might be the reason we're looking at a limited release. They may want to go wide in January, when there's less competition. Anyway, look for Screenplay (Adapted this time, when it won in '68 it was Original), and some acting nods.

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DECEMBER 21-28
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CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN 2: THE CHEAPERING (12/21)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The family goes on vacation and competes with Eugene Levy's family, which is really a metaphor for Steve Martin and Levy competing for who's selling out more lately.

WILL IT SUCK?
In an evil genius masterstroke, they've replaced the original director with the guy who did "The Pacifier" and "Bringing Down the House." They've kept the same screenwriter who, it pains me to remind you, also did "Just Married." Remember that?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This has Big Holiday Hit writ large. $139mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but I wouldn't mind seeing Martin co-host with Chris Rock, just to be different.

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FUN WITH DICK AND JANE (12/21)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Remake of the 1977 comedy in which a married couple turns to a life of crime to make ends meet.

WILL IT SUCK?
I'm a big Jim Carrey fan (well, post "Ace Ventura 2," anyway), so I have slightly high hopes for this already which are raised by the pairing of two interesting comedy schools. One comes in the form of the director, who also worked on "Monk" and "Galaxy Quest." We'll call that the Tony Shalhoub School of Gentle Irony. A couple of the writers, including Judd Apatow, have their feet in "Freaks and Geeks," "The 40-Year Old Virgin," and "Strangers with Candy." We'll call that the Twisted School of Subversive Absurdism. Both schools seem at home with the material. And, finally, to lower our hopes slightly is a writer from "Stealing Harvard."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Don't know that audiences are still feeling the Carrey love and after "Mr. and Mrs. Smith" they may feel that this is more of a re-tread than it actually is. $56mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
As a rule, remakes don't make waves. Especially if their predecessors didn't. ("The Producers" notwithstanding).

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THE RINGER (12/23)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Johnny Knoxville pretends to be retarded in order to fix the Special Olympics. Of course he does.

WILL IT SUCK?
Cartman was able to make this funny for, like, 20 minutes on "South Park." I'm not sure Johnny Knoxville can pull it off for 90 minutes, Brian Cox or no. Still, I give the writer credit for working on a lot of "Family Guy's" and note the executive producer-ship of the Farrelly bros. as a potentially benefitial influence.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
More dumb-ass comedy from "Grandma's Boy" the following week, but this should be able to carve out a small niche in the meantime. $12mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'm thinking if "Daltry Calhoun" can't make it, this won't either.

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HOODWINKED (12/23)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Little Red Riding Hood" gets the "Rashomon" treatment in this animated tale.

WILL IT SUCK?
Not much is known about the writer/directors (all three of them), but the premise is intriguing. The Weinsteins thought enough of it to pick it up at Cannes and release it at the end of the year with, apparently, every other film in their arsenal. Good voice talent, including Anne Hathaway, revisiting the fairy tale spoof genre after "Ella Enchanted," Patrick Warburton, Andy Dick, Glenn Close, Xzibit, & Chazz Palminteri.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If the Weinstein Co. can get the advertising up, this could do quite well. I'm not convinced that'll happen. $39mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It's eligible for a nod, but it remains to be seen if the Weinsteins can get it on the radar in time.

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RUMOR HAS IT (12/25)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jennifer Aniston discovers that she might be the progeny of the characters who inspired "The Graduate." In a metaphysical, socio-political sense, I suppose that could be true.

WILL IT SUCK?
The firing of director Ted Griffin early on and his replacement by Rob "I Haven't Made a Good Movie in Ten Years" Reiner was a little disheartening. But the screenplay is still Griffin's (and really, that's his strength - "Matchstick Men, Ocean's 11") and as for the rest, well, I guess it 's a clever idea, even if it started as a joke in "The Player."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's got a better shot than the second frame of "Family Stone." Seriously, though, I don't know how many Jennnifer Aniston fans resonate with "The Graduate," or vice versa. $33mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Depending upon how much of Griffin's original screenplay remains, there could be a nod in there for him somewhere.

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WOLF CREEK (12/25)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Another one of those crazy-psycho-tortures-unsuspecting-travelers deals.

WILL IT SUCK?
This has the unusual gorefest cache of a Grand Jury nod at Sundance.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A clever bit of counter-programming. Unfortunately "Bloodrayne" and Eli Roth's "Cabin Fever" follow-up "Hostel" (also about a torture factory) show up the very next week. $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but is anyone else freaked out that "torture-fest" is becoming it's own horror sub-genre?

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THE WHITE COUNTESS (12/21)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ralph Fiennes plays a blind nightclub owner in 1930's Shanghai trying to track down the wizard who defeated him 13 years ago...no, wait, just the blind nightclub owner part.

WILL IT SUCK?
The last (sniff) Merchant (pour some out) and Ivory film. Features the screenwriter behind one of their best-received efforts, "Remains of the Day." Sadly, though, early buzz is not so good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Merchant/Ivory has not been a money powerhouse for a while. And in this crowded a field, it could have issues. $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Outside of sympathy votes on behalf of Merchant, the reviews would need to improve considerably. Otherwise, Fiennes' more likely Actor nod scenario involves "The Constant Gardener."

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MUNICH (12/23)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Eric Bana goes after the Palestinian terrorists who killed hostages at the 1972 Munich Olympics.

WILL IT SUCK?
As if it weren't enough to have Spielberg on board (and, admittedly, for a lot of people it isn't) they went and threw in Tony "Angels in America" Kushner to do the screenplay. Add to that Bana, new 007 Daniel Craig, and Geoffrey Rush and you're talking about a project that doesn't fuck around.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, it's strange to see this as a limited release. I can't think of the last time a Spielberg film was let out that way. Still, the dark subject matter will lend to a smaller b.o. than, say, "War of the Worlds." And a lack of stars won't help much, either. I'm thinking this is the sort of film that will get more critical than financial love. Maybe that's why they went limited. $78mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Some Oscar pundits see this as the only surefire nod-magnet. Look for Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Adapted Screenplay. Probably Score and Cinematography while you're at it.

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CASANOVA (12/25)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Heath Ledger plays the legendary lover.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Not surprising given director Lasse Hallstrom's track record (regardless of late mishaps such as "An Unfinished Life" and "The Shipping News").

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The star power of Ledger helps, but there are more high profile indies around. $9mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It's conceivable, but those misfires of late may have taken Hallstrom off Oscar radar for a while.

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THE NEW WORLD (12/25)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Terence Malick's "Pocahontas."

WILL IT SUCK?
Well, how do you feel about Terence Malick? Me, I think "Badlands" is one of the best movies ever made, whereas "The Thin Red Line" is beautiful, but overrated. (Haven't seen "Days of Heaven." Hang my head in shame.) So I've got mixed feelings about this one. However, if there's one thing Malick does right every time, it's casting: Colin Farrell, Christian Bale, David Thewlis, Roger Rees, and Noah Taylor are all on board.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The two main draws here are Malick and Farrell. With Malick, you're up against Spielberg and Woody Allen, both of whom have bigger followings. But Farrell's a bigger star than anyone in either of those flicks (and post-"Batman" Bale's no slouch, either). This gives "The New World" a fighting chance, especially if nods are forthcoming. $37mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'd say it's fifty/fifty. If they do, it'll be for Direction, Screenplay, Cinematography, and, surpisingly, the most likely Acting nod is rumored to go to a newcomer in this field of well-knowns: Pocahontas herself, Q'Orianka Kilcher.

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MATCH POINT (12/28)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Woody Allen goes all Hitchcocky in this tale of a man with one woman too many in his life.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz on this has Allen back in form, and not just better-than-"Anything-Else" form. We're talking "Manhattan" and "Annie Hall" here, folks.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
DreamWorks needs to start hyping this now. It's going to be busy enough once awards season is in full swing. If they do, this is positioned to have a shot, even in a crowded field. $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER THIS AT OSCAR TIME?
Talk about getting it in under the wire. With four days to spare, DreamWorks releases this with a qualifying run. Look for Screenplay, at least.

Next month: Half the movies you just read about get their actual wide release. And which sequel is less necessary, "Underworld: Evolution" or "Big Momma's House 2"? The answer won't surprise you.

-- Dave Thomas