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Terry Zwigoff's Art School Confidential

by Dave Thomas

The summer of 2006 is shaping up to look like the summer of 2004, where big, obnoxious sequels actually happened to be good films (Spider-Man 2, Shrek 2, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, The Bourne Supremacy). And so it is with unabashed glee that I look forward to the third installments that open and close the month, even though each are on their third director.

April 5

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE III

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Tom Cruise vs. Philip Seymour Hoffman and his own tattered reputation.

WILL IT SUCK?
Of all the directors slated to helm this sequel (David Fincher, Joe Carnahan), J.J. Abrams is probably my favorite. Why? Two words. Alias and Lost. Who better to combine character and plot into a seamless whole (except maybe Joss Whedon, but that would just be weird)? It doesn't hurt that Phillip Seymour Hoffman is joined here by Billy Crudup, Michelle Monaghan, and Laurence Fishburne. The only sad part is that Hoffman is probably going to lose.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This will own the first half of May. $205mil.

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HOOT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Someone's managed to combine the rallying cries "Save the spotted owl!" with "Will somebody please think of the children!?"

WILL IT SUCK?
On many levels. You've got the writer/director with a lot of Fraiser and Becker under his directing belt, but only The Wil Shriner Show for a writing credit, and he is Wil Shriner. The screenplay is based on a novel from the guy who wrote the book for Striptease, which I just find amusing. Luke Wilson and and Tim Blake Nelson are on board for what, from the trailer, looks like groan-inducing comic relief as inept cops trying to stop the kids from stopping the construction that's going to kill the owls. Yeah, it's that kind of movie. And Jimmy Buffett did the music and plays a science teacher in the film. Neil Flynn from Scrubs shows up, but that's just not enough.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
M:I3 is PG:13. As a result, you have a much greater draw on the kid audience than you would otherwise. Not to mention Stick It from the week before and Lindsay Lohan drawing tweeners in Just My Luck the following week. $17mil.

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AN AMERICAN HAUNTING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
I don't know. But I'll tell you this much. It's nice, for once, to see a haunting that wasn't outsourced.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but the concept is novel. It's a period piece ghost story, based on actual events, where the ghost ends up killing someone. The director, unfortunately, has but Dungeons and Dragons to his credit.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
M:I3 is an issue. And horror doesn't always do well in the summer. Especially if it's not irretrievably stupid. $12mil.

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THE PROMISE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Fairly fakey-looking Wuxia epic from the director of Farewell My Concubine.

WILL IT SUCK?
In spite of the cheesy-looking fx, this was China's submission for Best Foreign Language Film, so at least they had confidence in it. It's also the most expensive Chinese film to date, which make those fx even more boggling. The delay from December has more to do with Warner Independent buying it from the Weinstein Bros. than any lack of quality on the film's part, we hope. Though the early American buzz is disappointing.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The big indie release this weekend is Art School Confidential. And if the Lady Vengeance folks can get their shit together and pick a release date (supposedly around now) that might be the final nail in the coffin. $1mil.

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CRAZY LIKE A FOX

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Roger Rees (Robin Colcord or Lord John Marbury, if you prefer) goes crazy. But it's all to save his farm, so it's okay.

WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to say. Totally new writer/director. It's Roger Rees, so he should be fun. Delayed for a full year, not as good a sign. But early buzz is decent. I tell you what, though, if they ever make a movie version of that 80's series Crazy Like a Fox, I'll be there. Or if they make a movie about how Rupert Murdoch is totally fucking jacknuts.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not a huge distributor and not a huge star. $250,000.

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ART SCHOOL CONFIDENTIAL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The latest from the minds behind Ghost World covers life in the eponymous facility.

WILL IT SUCK?
Given the pedigree, it's sort of disappointing to see the early buzz be this bad. And with Jim Broadbent, John Malkovich, and Ethan Suplee lending support, even moreso.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given the lack of competition, the names may be enough to initially overcome bad word of mouth. $3mil.

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DOWN IN THE VALLEY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ed Norton returns to indiewood in this story of a guy who thinks he's a cowboy.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Norton is joined by Evan Rachel Wood as the love interest and David Morse as the love interest's concerned father.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It might do better to come out next week, when there's far less indie product with which to compete. Regardless, Norton's a name but the fact that very few outlets are touting this right now is a bad promotional sign. $3mil.

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THE PROPOSITION

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Outback western

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is quite good. Nick Cave (yes, the singer/songwriter) has apparently written a compelling epic for Guy Pearce, Ray Winstone, Danny Huston, John Hurt, and Emily Watson to act out under the direction of John Hillcoat. Won a bunch of Aussie awards.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, having all the stars in the world doesn't matter if no one knows about it. And move it up a week. $2mil.

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April 12
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POSEIDON

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The mighty god of the sea loses his job and has to find work in a car wash to win back his high school crush. Actually, this is a remake of The Poseidon Adventure, but I like my idea better.

WILL IT SUCK?
I fail to see how this will be any different than Titanic. Has technology improved so much in the last ten years that watching a boat sink is going to look that much cooler? On the other hand, I have confidence in Wolfgang Petersen as a director (though maybe not enough to give him Ender's Game - I shit you not). I don't have as much confidence in the screenwriter, who's last effort was The Cell. And as much as I look forward to Andre Braugher's next great role, this ain't it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little bit of competition from the second frame of M:I3 and a little from Just My Luck, drawing a date crowd that might otherwise think of Poseidon as the next Titanic. But the real problem is next week's Da Vinci Code. $123mil.

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JUST MY LUCK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Lindsay Lohan switches her good luck for some guy's bad luck. Romantic comedy ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Well, you've got Donald Petrie, the guy behind such classics as How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days and Welcome to Mooseport at the helm, so, yes certainly. Dude, there are people who helped write the Larry the Cable Guy movie with story credit here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's more or less alone on the romcom front, and Lohan's no slouch. $57mil.

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GOAL! THE DREAM BEGINS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kid from the bario gets to try out for Newcastle United.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good, which may be why, unlike Remo Williams: The Adventure Begins, there actually is a part two and three underway for the dream that begins here. Although does anyone really think that Fred Ward is really too old for The Adventure Continues? Who's with me?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Although there's not much competition this week or next, the overflow from the previous week could hurt. On the other hand, soccer is more popular in this country than you might think. Is it indie-movie-theater popular? Bend It Like Beckham might say yes. $13mil.

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KEEPING UP WITH THE STEINS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A story about competing Bar Mitzvahs.

WILL IT SUCK?
This won the audience award at the U.S. Comedy Arts Festival, so somebody thought it was funny. But haven't I seen Jeremy Piven go nuts over a Bat Mitzvah on Entourage already? Still, I like the premise, and the one scene I've seen (a Titanic-themed Bar Mitvah) was chuckle-worthy. We'll see if director Scott Marshall can be the second comic director legacy (after Jason Reitman with Thank You For Smoking) to break out this year.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is the only thing with any kind of star power coming out in indiewood this week. However, no one knows it yet. $6mil.

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DEAD MAN'S SHOES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Paddy Considine goes all sickhouse on the goons who terrorized his brother.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is quite good. Won all sorts of awards overseas, including the BAFTA for Best British Film. Also supposed to have some creepy supernatural elements.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Magnolia needs to get on the ball with the advertising already. This is the first I've heard of this flick and I love Paddy Considine, revenge flicks, and creepy supernatural elements. $1mil.

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April 19
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THE DA VINCI CODE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Want I should explain Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter while I'm at it?

WILL IT SUCK?
For a book that no one I know liked, they've sure thrown a lot of talent at this. The Beautful Mind/Cinderella Man writing/directing team of Akiva Goldsman and Ron Howard is on board here, along with major acting chops in the form of Tom Hanks, Audrey Tatou, Jean Reno, Ian McKellan, Alfred Molina, and Paul Bettany as freaky albino dude. It'll be the best movie you can possibly make of The Da Vinci Code.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Over the Hedge will bleed a bit of the adult demo who need to accompany their kids, and X3 won't help next week, but there's a reason I mentioned LOTR and Harry Potter. $236mil.

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OVER THE HEDGE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Cute CGI woodland creatures vs. suburbia.

WILL IT SUCK?
With a pedigree that includes the director of Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas and writers behind everything from Chicken Run to the latest Pink Panther movie, it's no surprise that the early buzz is of the "at least it's not as bad as Madagascar" variety.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Madagascar, last summer's Dreamworks ani-fest, had the luxury of a Pixar-less season. This, though well distanced from Cars, does not. $161mil.

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SEE NO EVIL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The WWE's Kane plays a slasher who plucks out his victims' eyeballs. Get it?

WILL IT SUCK?
This is perfect on so many levels I think I'll burst. The director has a plethora of adult titles to his credit, including the clown porn opus New Wave Hookers 4. The writer has done some uncredited scribbling for...wait for it...WWF Smackdown! Although, I suppose the bigger shock here should be that modern slasher flicks have writers. Finally, there's the ontological genius of casting a wrestler as a horror villain. Only Snakes on a Plane gets more zen than this. If only they could have caught on sooner. "Can you smell what The Rock is cooking? Your spleen!" And I can't wait for the movie where the villain kills you with folding chair.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is a brilliant bit o' counter-programming. $38mil.

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TWELVE AND HOLDING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kids doing what they oughtn’t. Courtesy of L.I.E. auteur Michael Cuesta.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has this as the next Mean Creek or Mysterious Skin, if not, you know, the next L.I.E.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A dearth of competition will be this film's friend. $2mil.

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THE KING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Gael García Bernal and William Hurt get into it over Hurt's daughter.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good and why not? Bernal is the man.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Add a dearth of competition to star power, you get even better results. $4mil.

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April 26
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X-MEN: THE LAST STAND

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Juggernaut! Shadowcat! Angel! Dark Fuckin' Phoenix! And Beast, yo! Beast!

WILL IT SUCK?
The question is not "WILL IT SUCK?" but "Will it be mediocre?" See, the best the talent behind this film has put together thus far includes Red Dragon and Rush Hour (director Brett Ratner), Mr. and Mrs. Smith (co-writer Simon Kinberg), and, well, X2 (co-writer Zak Penn). If everyone surpasses themselves (and Zak brings his A-game and not his Elektra-game), we're in for the best X-flick yet. If not, it'll be "Empire was so much better than Jedi" all over again.

The trailers, I will admit, kick ass.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Hear that? It's the sound of nothing else opening wide this week. $254mil.

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AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A 100-minute PowerPoint on global warming.

WILL IT SUCK?
Trust me. It's a good PowerPoint. Doesn't hurt that Al Gore is giving it. He's got charisma to burn when he's not running for anything. And if you remember my mention of the best movie poster of the year in last month's preview, I think the version currently up on the film's IMDB page may be it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, a lack of competition to the rescue. But this will really depend on word of mouth, so tell your friends. And they'll tell two friends. And they'll tell two friends. $3mil.

Next Month: Guess who’s back. Back again. Kal-El’s back. Tell a friend.

-- Dave Thomas

Posted by freewilliamsburg on May 4, 2006 11:27 AM | Permalink