The June 2006 Movie Preview
Nacho Libre
Comedy is king this month, though early Break-Up reviews may beg to differ. But Jack Black, Adam Sandler and the good folks at Pixar are ready to pick up the slack should Vince Vaughn fall short.
June 2
THE BREAK-UP
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Vince Vaughn and Jennifer Aniston go all Brad Pitt and, um, Jennifer Aniston.
WILL IT SUCK?
Newcomers to writing, including Vaughn, who contributed to the story. Directing-wise we have a little bit of hope with Peyton Reed, he of Bring It On and Down with Love. Can he make the transition to two-word titles? But the real hope here, and this almost never happens for me with a comedy, is the trailer. It's actually funny. How can you not laugh when that guy starts singing Owner of a Lonely Heart?
It doesn't hurt that Vaughn reunites with Justin Long and Jason Bateman from Dodgeball and Jon Favreau from Swingers. Judy Davis, Vincent D'Onofrio, and Cole Hauser should be fun, too.
Early buzz, sadly, not so good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much competition. Other movies are as afraid of this as X3 for some reason. Maybe they remember what comedies did last summer. The next week, Cars will suck up a lot of oxygen, but this flick's demo will probably be one of the least affected. $162mil.
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PEACEFUL WARRIOR
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Nick Nolte plays Yoda to an injured gymnast.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, with the film coming off as too New Age-y for some. On the other hand, this is from the guy who directed Powder (and both Jeepers Creepers movies, go figure). The writer who adapted Dan Millman's memoir The Way of the Peaceful Warrior for this exercise also wrote Hellraiser 3, another spiritual journey.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Little competition, and these mystical romps are notoriously unpredictable at the box office. $4mil.
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DISTRICT B13
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Magnolia takes an awesome French action film and saddles it with an unwieldy title to explain a plot point.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is one of the best action films of the year. How do I know? Because it was the best action film I saw at Toronto last year. Fantastic parkour. A tight plot. Great sense of humor. And plenty of "wow" factor, especially in the first half.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The buzz for this is strictly underground, and the trailer is only so-so (but I may be biased since I've actually seen the film). In any case, Magnolia's is going to have to do a bigger push than usual to get this on the radar. If they do, they could be looking at one of the few foreign action crossovers to actually work. $5mil.
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TYPHOON
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A supervillain plans an attack on Korea involving a typhoon and nuclear waste while the rest of the world asks "too soon?"
WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to say. This movie just sort of came out of nowhere in spite of fame and glory in its native South Korea. Dreamworks/Paramount Classics picked it up, but so far early buzz here has been middling.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It may be hard to get American audiences to take this seriously and then if they do it may be hard not to get them to take it as exploitative. $2mil.
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June 6
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THE OMEN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Hey, in 2006 it's possible to release a movie on June June 06. Let's redo The Omen!
WILL IT SUCK?
The guy who directed the original (Richard Donner) is better known for action films, so I guess it makes sense that John Moore (Behind Enemy Lines) is directing this. They were classy enough to get the original screenwriter to come back for the remake. Did you know that guy also wrote (and directed) Lucas? Also, you can't beat the cast. I'm a big Liev Schreiber fan, and Michael Gambon and Pete Postlethwaite should be great in supporting expository roles. I rather enjoyed the original and I don't imagine this is going to be terribly different. Early buzz is decent.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It doesn't have very much competition, and though horror rarely does well in the summer, this is the rare exception - an event horror film. $53mil.
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June 9
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CARS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Pixar. 6 and 0.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, which is the same as saying it's a Pixar film. That 6 and 0 refers to quality as well as box office. If it matters, you've got Owen Wilson, Paul Newman, George Carlin, Michael Keaton and I'll overlook Larry the Cable Guy doing voices. But you had me at Pixar, in spite of less-than-stellar trailers.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nobody fucks with the Pixar. $340mil.
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A PRARIE HOME COMPANION
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Lindsay Lohan's in a Robert Altman film? Really?
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has this ranking just below Gosford Park in the director's oeuvre.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even though this is a wide release, I highly recommend Picturehouse get this into arthouse theaters. Call me nutty, but I think there may be some crossover between NPR listeners and Altman fans. $14mil.
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THE HEART OF THE GAME
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about six years of a girl's high school basketball team in Seattle.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is insanely good. Like Oscar short list good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Pretty serious competition from Wordplay the following week, but if Miramax can get the word out, this stands a chance. $5mil.
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June 16
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NACHO LIBRE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A Mexican priest (Jack Black) becomes a Mexican wrestler.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, if you can buy Charlton Heston as a Mexican... This is from the writer/director of Napoleon Dynamite, and to look at the trailer, the sense of humor is the same. Plus, they took the screenplay and let Mike White (School of Rock, Chuck & Buck) put some stank on it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This will be a pretty good match-up. The following week Adam Sandler's Click comes out. Will it draw from Nacho's second weekend? Does the old guard still have something up on the new? $85mil.
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THE FAST AND THE FURIOUS: TOKYO DRIFT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Initial D with stupid Americans.
WILL IT SUCK?
The straight-to-DVD Hollow Man 2 has more reason to exist than this waste of Justin Lin and Lucas Black's talent.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
People are idiots, but a lot of the same crowd are going to want to see Nacho Libre this week and Click the next. $75mil.
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THE LAKE HOUSE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock exchange notes through a mystical mailbox that carries their messages back and forth through time. And if the mailbox goes under 50mph, it explodes.
WILL IT SUCK?
Not content to remake Japanese horror films, Hollywood is now pilfering their romantic sci-fi. They've hired an acclaimed Argentinean director you've never heard of and thrown the guy who wrote Proof (the play and the screenplay) at the adaptation. So at least they're trying.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is angling to be this summer's Notebook. It ain't gonna pull that off, but it will surprise you. $49mil.
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GARFIELD: A TAIL OF TWO KITTIES
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Not content to squander Bill Murray's talent, the franchise draws in Billy Connolly as well.
WILL IT SUCK?
I'm going to pretend that you didn't ask that question. Although I maintain that Tokyo Drift is still the more pointless sequel.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think the kids would rather see Nacho Libre. $28mil.
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THE MOSTLY UNFABULOUS SOCIAL LIFE OF ETHAN GREEN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Pretty straightforward romantic gay comedy.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good, but the comic strip is popular.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's hard enough to get support for a gay romantic comedy when the reviews are good. $500,00.
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WORDPLAY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about the NY Times crossword and its inimitable editor, Will Shortz.
WILL IT SUCK?
It's awesome. Even if you don't care about crosswords, I'd see it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Somewhat high profile indies coming out next week, but this has a pretty good buzz lead-in going all the way back to Sundance. $9mil.
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LOWER CITY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
We're on a road movie to El Salvador.
WILL IT SUCK?
This has been described as a cross between City of God and Y Tu Mama Tambien. Won the Award of the Youth at Cannes last year because, you know, the Youth, they're important.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Whatever hyperbolic comparisons you want to make, there's much stiffer competition in the waters. $250,000.
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LOVERBOY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
You know that creepy relationship on Arrested Development between Lucille and her son Buster? Go creepier.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good. This is directed by Kevin Bacon and stars his wife Kyra Sedgwick and, yes, the term "vanity project" has been thrown around.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Bacon's name will carry this for a while, but without good reviews, it will ultimately falter. $2mil.
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June 23
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CLICK
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Adam Sandler Controls the Universe (with a remote).
WILL IT SUCK?
This actually has a pretty good shot at not sucking. It's got the director of The Wedding Singer, one of Sandler's best, and writers behind the similarly-premised Bruce Almighty, which turned out better than anyone could have expected. Then again, it's Revolution Studios, so forget everything I just said.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Although Nacho Libre's second frame is a bit of an issue, the only real competition comes the following week when Superman blows everything away. $121mil.
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WAIST DEEP
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
People have simply got to stop letting their kids ride in cars what with all the carjacking-turned-kidnappings in films these days. This one has Tyrese robbing banks to raise the ransom to get his tyke back.
WILL IT SUCK?
When I first saw the trailer for this it reminded me of the trailer for Caught Up and, sure enough, one of the writers here penned that. Vondie Curtis Hall directs, and he has a bit of a mixed track record. Some good TV (Firefly) and, um, Glitter. Here he writes and directs for the first time since the somewhat beloved Gridlock'd, but early buzz doesn't indicate that that helps any.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Tyrese would have probably been better off sticking with the Fast/Furious franchise. $18mil.
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THE ROAD TO GUANTANAMO
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Pseudo-doc based on the true story of three British Muslims imprisoned at Gitmo before being released (without being charged)...two years later.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding, which is not surprising as co-director Michael Winterbottom is the shit and the subject matter is incendiary. Consider it the most important film you'll see all summer.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Could still get lost in the shuffle. $2mil.
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LEONARD COHEN: I'M YOUR MAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Everybody Loves Leonard
WILL IT SUCK?
U2's in it, so I'm pretty much sold, but for the rest of you, if Leonard Cohen isn't enough to get you into the theater, I can't help you. Early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If the Beasties can't pack 'em in, I don't know that Lenny can. $750,000.
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WASSUP ROCKERS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
This latest slice of fringe from Kids director Larry Clark focuses on LA Latino skate punks.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but Clark is at least in familiar territory.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Familiar territory for Clark is also low box office. Delay from April doesn't help. $5oo,ooo.
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THE HIDDEN BLADE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Drama set in the latter days of the samurai era.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good and the international kudos myriad, but it's no romp. Think "staid." From the same team that put together Twilight Samurai.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don't think anybody heard of Twilight Samurai, either. $500,000.
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June 30
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SUPERMAN RETURNS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kevin Spacey as Lex Luthor. Oh, and I think there's some stuff with Superman, too.
WILL IT SUCK?
After the fiasco that was X3, this had better not suck. The relentless mediocrity of Ratner's Last Stand (when shit wasn't blowing up, anyway) only pointed out how sorely the franchise missed Singer, and if this is the reason he had to go, we can only hope it was worth it. He's co-written the script with a couple of his X2 cohorts, so that's a promising sign. And, frankly, he could just make the whole thing about Luthor and make it work, but it's probably a good idea to have the Man of Steel up in there, too.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It makes up for having Dead Man's Chest the following weekend by owning an ostensibly 5-day 4th of July weekend. $250mil.
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THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The chick-flick Superman Returns.
WILL IT SUCK?
Scoring Meryl Streep to play Miranda Priestly really is like scoring Spacey to play Luthor, and the director has done nice work on Entourage and Band of Brothers (oddly, very guy-centric shows), but I'm none too pleased to see the screenwriter behind Laws of Attraction and Three to Tango on the adaptation.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much competition and fairly good anticipation. $60mil.
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QUEENS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Five mothers cope with the impending nuptials of their gay sons.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is generally good. One of the writers did the acclaimed Km. 0.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Higher profile indies will squash this, though it's likely to be the only movie with a mass gay wedding this summer. $250,000.
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WHO KILLED THE ELECTRIC CAR?
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about the rise and fall of the electric car. Turns out it was those same fuckers what framed Roger Rabbit.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is strong. Should make a nice companion piece to An Inconvenient Truth.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Speaking of Truth, right now it's pulling down $91,000 per screen. Are enviro-docs the new black? $3mil.
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STRANGERS WITH CANDY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Prequel to the Comedy Central show about a 32-year-old woman (Amy Sedaris) who goes back to high school.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, though some seem far more impressed with the first thirty minutes than the rest for some reason. Series regulars Paul Dinello, Stephen Colbert and Amy Sedaris wrote the script, and Dinello directs. Most of the old cast is back, plus Matthew Broderick, Dan Hedaya, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Ian Holm, Allison Janney, Sarah Jessica Parker and Justin Theroux. Rent the first season on DVD. You'll know right away if it's your cup of tea. Me, I'm just hoping they'll be dancing over the end credits.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has a pretty good following, a red-hot Colbert and, until Scanner Darkly comes out the following week, very little competition in indiewood. $13mil.
Next Month: Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
