by Dave Thomas

Woody Allen directs Scarlett Johansson again in Scoop
Remember how I said that last month was all about the comedy? I spoke too soon. All the B-list comedy tries its hand at making a buck this month. It can't all be bad, right?
JULY 7
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
ARRR, WHAT BE THE PITCH THIS TIME?
Jack Sparrow vs. Davy Jones (not the one from The Monkees).
ARRR, BE IT OF THE VARIETY OF FILMS THAT SUCK?
Early buzz is generally good, so I guess it was a smart move to keep the same cast, writers and director for this installment. And adding Bill Nighy to the mix probably didn't hurt. Oh, and who's a pirate's favorite addition to the cast? Stellan Skaaaarrrrrrrsgaaaaaarrrrrrd!
ARRR, HOW MANY DUBLOONS WILL IT PLUNDER?
This is probably the only movie that has nothing to fear from the second frame of Superman, and the following week two weak-ass comedies are all it has to stare down. Every pundit from here to Tuscaloosa has declared this the sure-fire number one hit of the summer in spite of Da Vinci Code, X-Men, Superman, Mission Impossible, Cars and, of course, SOAP. And polls of moviegoers seem to agree. $335mil.
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A SCANNER DARKLY
ARRR, I MEAN, UM, WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The latest adaptation of a Philip K. Dick novel. As if the rotoscope effect weren't mindfuck enough.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very split. I guess Linklater plus rotoscoping equals controversy. But me, I loved Waking Life. And having Robert Downey, Jr. and Linklater vet Rory Cochrane involved can only help.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With the following and star power this film has, Warner Independent could have probably released it wide as counterprogramming to Pirates. $20mil.
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ONCE IN A LIFETIME: THE EXTRAORDINARY STORY OF THE NEW YORK COSMOS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Hey, remember the North American Soccer League? Anyone?
WILL IT SUCK?
Actually, I love soccer. Though it's arguably the Waking Life of sports in America. But who doesn't want to see a doc that includes Pelé, Studio 54 and Steve Ross? Early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even if soccer weren't generally ignored in the US, you'd have to deal with the fact that the fan base isn't a clean match with indie/doc filmgoers. $1mil.
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JULY 14
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LITTLE MAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
What's funnier than two Wayanses posing as white women? One Wayans posing as a baby, of course.
WILL IT SUCK?
This may be the first movie that didn't need the help of Revolution Studios to suck, but it has it anyway. Keenan Ivory Wayans has not directed a good film since I'm Gonna Git You Sucka, and no, Scary Movie doesn't count.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As with White Chicks, this is positioned well. The Owen Wilson/Wayans crossover audience is pretty slim, so there'll be little competish from Dupree. $40mil.
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YOU, ME AND DUPREE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
What About Owen?
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, I'll give the directors (they're brothers) the fact that they directed the Arrested Development pilot. And I like that Seth Rogen is getting some screen time. And I went to high school with the guy who plays "Eddie." Other than that, this looks like the unfunniest comedy since, well, Little Man. (No, nothing looks that bad.)
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's not that I don't think Owen Wilson can open a movie on his own, I just don't think he can open this movie on his own. $56mil.
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EDMOND
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
William H. Macy goes batshit crazy.
WILL IT SUCK?
So this is what happens when you team the director of Re-Animator with a David Mamet screenplay. I'm curious to see if Dule Hill and George Wendt can speak Mamet (though Hill is fluent in Sorkin, so it's not much of a stretch). Even more curious to see if Denise Richards and Mena Suvari can handle that prose. In any case, early buzz is mixed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Cast-wise it's not hurting, but even Spartan had better promotion. $1mil.
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THE OH IN OHIO
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Paul Rudd can't make Parker Posey cum, so they basically leave each other for different lovers.
WILL IT SUCK?
The trailer's pretty damn funny, but the early buzz is not.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has a comparable cast to Edmond, but the advantage of being a comedy. Of course, there'll be about fifty comedies out by the time it hits week two. $4mil.
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THE GROOMSMEN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ed Burns gets ready for his wedding with the help of his B-list friends.
WILL IT SUCK?
With a cast that includes John Mahoney, John Leguizamo, Donal Logue and Jay Mohr, you'd expect a trailer that didn't suck. Ed Burns has basically been making the same movie since The Brothers McMullen, which isn't a bad film. But this still doesn't look good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nice cast, but nobody knows about this film, and those who do aren't too psyched. $3mil.
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JULY 21
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LADY IN THE WATER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Paul Giamatti finds some chick in a pool.
WILL IT SUCK?
It's M. Night Shyamalan. That used to mean something. Well, it still kinda does. The Village does not undo his three previous films (unless, of course, you didn't dig Signs or Unbreakable - but at this point you'd have stopped reading anyway). Still, I go into this one with very mixed feelings. Sure, we've got Paul Giamatti with Bob Balaban, Freddy Rodriguez and Jeffrey Wright to boot. And sure Chris Doyle is joining the long line of kick-ass Shyamalan cinematographers on this one. But then there's The Village. And the fact that the premise is cheesy as hell. And Shyamalan is not cheese-proof.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No true direct competition. And even The Village made some green. $105mil.
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MONSTER HOUSE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Can't sleep. House'll eat me.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Does have the advantage of the Heat Vision and Jack writers (serously, does anyone know where I can get my hands on that pilot?) and the motion capture technology that made Polar Express so, um, creepy. Some nice voice talent, including Jon Heder, Steve Buscemi, Catherine O'Hara, Fred Willard, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Jason Lee. One of the few CGI-fests this year that's not about a bunch of cuddly animals.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has to deal with The Ant Bully the very next week. Also, could use a little more advertising. It's kind of sneaking up on people. $104mil.
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CLERKS II
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Randall and Dante get a job at Mooby's.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding. It falls behind only Clerks as the best-rated Kevin Smith flick on the IMDB. The bit where Jay does the Buffalo Bill dance from Silence of the Lambs alone looks worth the price of admission.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
For all the hype, this doesn't have that much market penetration. It's a small core audience. Still, I see this poised to become a breakout hit. $82mil.
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MY SUPER EX-GIRLFRIEND
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The title pretty much says it all.
WILL IT SUCK?
Ivan Reitman directed one of the greatest comedies of all time. I'm talking, of course, about Legal Eagles. Or maybe Ghostbusters. Anyway, most of his work since has been mediocre (think Twins). You'd think he'd be the go-to guy for a mix of sci-fi-ish action and comedy, but his last film was Evolution. Point is, even Eddie Izzard and Rainn Wilson in supporting roles probably can't save this. On the other hand, the writer has done some Simpsons work and has been inexplicably tapped to write the Fantastic Four sequel.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In a weekend and a month that's already overstuffed (especially with comedy), I think this is going to be one of the losers. $66mil.
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POSTER BOY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Senator's son is gay. Controversy ensues.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz isn't terrible, and it snagged a Jury Award at Outfest. And remember Karen Allen? She's the mommy.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Little Miss Sunshine will take all comers the following week, and this will be no exception. $500,000.
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JULY 28
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MIAMI VICE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
It's been twenty years and still there's drugs and prostitution in Miami. Those guys are fucking up.
WILL IT SUCK?
Michael Mann has built up a hell of a lot of good will with me over the course of Manhunter, The Insider, Heat and Collateral, to name a few. Here he's dealing with his own baby. And I actually like the casting of Farrell and Fox, though the former is resembling Treat Williams more and more with each film. And "verboten" does not mean what the trailer thinks it means.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Talladega Nights will be an issue the following week, but this weekend it should own. $97mil.
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THE ANT BULLY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ants get revenge on some kid who's been bullying them by shrinking him down to their size.
WILL IT SUCK?
I have to give writer/director John A. Davis credit. He's done some of the better CG animated flicks of the past few years. He did the surprisingly good Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius and the hilarious short Santa Claus vs. the Snowman. So for that reason only I have some faith in this project. Other than that, I'm tired of seeing trailers for CG films where animals get back at The Man (Over the Hedge, Barnyard, Open Season and this, for starters).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Comes in the middle of a three-week assault of CG animation (with Barnyard bowing the following week). Nobody likes the middle child. $62mil.
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JOHN TUCKER MUST DIE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Three high school girls seek revenge on the boy who done them wrong. Opportunities for vaguely lesbian titilation ensue.
WILL IT SUCK?
This movie doesn't look...oh, what's the word...good. Betty Thomas directs, and when she's not making movies about Howard Stern (Private Parts), she's making I Spy.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This will be another victim of the overcomedification of the summer. $29mil.
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LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Hit comedy from Sundance of the dysfunctional family road trip variety.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. It better be, for what Fox Searchlight paid for it at Sundance (something like $10mil - a record at the fest). Steve Carrell looks hilarious and the rest of the cast (including Toni Collette, Alan Arkin and Greg Kinnear) look game.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little competition from Woody Allen, but not much. Probably one of the bigger indies of the summer. $14mil.
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SCOOP
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
In a weird sort of mix of Match Point and Ghost Dad, Scarlett Johansson is led by Ian McShane, in spirit form, to track down a charming Brit (Hugh Jackman) who might be a killer.
WILL IT SUCK?
Woody Allen doesn't exactly suck. He turns in "meh" from time to time, but he rarely flat out sucks. Will this be as good as say, Match Point? Probably not.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
"Meh" Woody just doesn't cut it box office-wise. Especially with Little Miss Sunshine out there. $5mil.
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BROTHERS OF THE HEAD
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Don't call it a mockumentary. Fake doc about a pair of conjoined-twin punk rock stars.
WILL IT SUCK?
It really isn't a mockumentary (even Christopher Guest hates that term). It's a fairly somber tale of exploitation and the typical roller coaster of fame that is rock stardom with the twist of the leads being conjoined (makes things real uncomfortable if, say, they both like the same girl but she only wants to do one of them - and does). Directed (very well, I might add) by the pair behind Lost in La Mancha. Well worth checking out, if only for the kick-ass soundtrack.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's not so much the competition as the fact that nobody knows about this film and those that do aren't interested. Interesting note: Fuse bought the TV rights. This does not make Pants Off Dace Off any classier. $1mil.
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ANOTHER GAY MOVIE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Gay American Pie
WILL IT SUCK?
It's just painful. I actually saw a script reading for this film, and that was funnier. The only thing still funny about it when it reached the screen was Scott Thompson, but he's only in a handful of scenes. The rest just hurts. More here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not so well. With the number of walkouts I saw at the preview screening, buzz is likely to be poor, and you really need word-of-mouth on a project like this. $250,000.
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AMERICA: FREEDOM TO FACISM
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about a guy who goes in search of the law that mandates income tax and finds that America is not so much anymore with the civil liberties.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, with audiences liking it better than critics. Apparently makes a better argument for the income tax thing than the civil liberties thing. Still, interesting.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think the income tax angle will turn off a lot of people, even some liberals. In fact, it will turn on some libertarian conservatives who might then be turned off by the America Doesn't Rock angle, but then again, if they're libertarians, they'll be all about the civil liberties...so...I guess my bullet point here is that this will only appeal to libertarians, and there are only so many of those. $500,000.
Next Month: MSOAMP. And there ain't a damn thing you can do about it.