by Dave Thomas

Talladega Nights
Given that, movie-wise, August is usually the January of the summer, this month's selection doesn't look all that horrible.
August 4
TALLADEGA NIGHTS: THE BALLAD OF RICKY BOBBY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Anchorman, but with NASCAR.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and that's not surprising given the fact that the same team behind Anchorman reunites here. Ferrell and director Adam McKay once again share writing duties, and the supporting cast includes such Frat Pack stand-bys as Gary Cole and David Koechner and adds to them Michael Clarke Duncan, John C. Reilly, Amy Adams, Sacha Baron Cohen, Andy Richter and, of course, Elvis Costello and Mos Def (!?)
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With audiences maxed out on CG by the time Barnyard comes out this week, there's really no other competition, and I think people miss Ferrell in form. $99mil.
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THE NIGHT LISTENER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Indie thriller with Robin Williams investigating the claims of an unusual story involving a young boy and his mother (Toni Collette).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, though critics seem to be preferring it to audiences, in an unusual twist. It seems strange, given the fact that Armistead Maupin is co-adapting his own novel here, and having it directed by The Business of Strangers helmer Patrick Stettner, but that's how it turned out. I also like Bobby Cannavale in the cast, but that's just me.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's a nice bit of counter-programming - this feels like a fall movie. However, I don't know if that will be enough to defeat mediocre buzz, especially in wide release. $10mil.
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THE DESCENT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A group of spelunkers are terrorized by, well, let's just say bad things, man, bad things.
WILL IT SUCK?
Could end up being the best horror film of the year. Certainly the best I've seen in a while. Full review here. Don't watch the trailer!
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it weren't for Pulse the following week...this would still have trouble. Although the buzz is hella-good, there's just not that much market penetration. But if anyone can take a no-name horror flick and turn it into gold, Lionsgate can. The rumored Saw III trailer tie-on should help. $25mil.
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BARNYARD
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Oh, look. It's another CG-animated flick about rebellious animals.
WILL IT SUCK?
The other half of Santa vs. the Snowman and Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius (the first half did Ant Bully the previous week - and we saw how that turned out), Steve Oedekirk, is behind this one, writing and directing. As much as I secretly enjoyed his last feature-length writing/directing gig, the terrible, terrible Kung Pow: Enter the Fist, I still don't consider that a lock.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even though Zoom comes out the following week, the real problem comes from being the third in a series of CG-animated flicks released on consecutive weekends. I said people hate the middle child, but I think there'll be even less love for the baby. $51mil.
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QUINCEANERA
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Quinceañera is a ceremony celebrating a young Hispanic girl's 15th birthday. Except when her father finds out she's pregnant. Then all hell breaks loose.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, but not as good as you'd expect for a film that won both the Grand Jury Prize and the Audience Award at Sundance.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This week? Fine. Next week it's gotta deal with Half Nelson and House of Sand. $2mil.
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AUGUST 11
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WORLD TRADE CENTER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The true story of two police officers who were trapped in the Twin Towers on 9/11.
WILL IT SUCK?
Given the million ways this could have gone horribly wrong, I'm happy to report that the initial buzz is very, very, very good. Like, Oscar good. This is, on the surface anyway, the polar opposite of United 93. Instead of a director known for his documentary style, we have a director known for an extremely subjective POV. Instead of a no-name cast (except for Sledge Hammer!, much love) we have a cast full of recognizable faces (Nicolas Cage, Michael Pena - the unsung hero of Crash, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Jay Hernandez, Maria Bello, William Mapother - okay, maybe only I know who that is, Frank Whaley, Stephen Dorff, Jude Ciccolella - think 24). I hope the early buzz is on target, not only because a bad 9/11 film would be insulting and offensive, but because after Alexander, Stone could use an artistic triumph.
Another curious thing about the early buzz is that conservatives like a Stone film. Weird, huh?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Although the subject matter is harsh, to say the least, I think United 93 may have softened up the ground a little. I think you'll see surprisingly high numbers for a film that, under normal circumstances, would probably be released in the fall. $46mil.
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ZOOM
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Hey, guess what would happen if Revolution Studios decided to make Sky High? That's right. It would suck. We would have also accepted "It would really, really suck."
WILL IT SUCK?
I'll refer you to the part where it's from Revolution Studios, but if that ain't enough - director of Garfield, writers from Haunted Mansion and Mousehunt. This is what we feared Sky High would be.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think audiences are up for something that looks fun and bad (SOAP) and not just bad. However, the Tim Allen factor is undeniable. $52mil.
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PULSE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The dead are talking. And they're using cell phones. And fax machines. And washing machines. Anything with electricity, really.
WILL IT SUCK?
Very early buzz is good, but minimal. You'd figure there'd be more what with the constant delays (this was supposed to come out in March, and a few other times). The delays, though, seem to have more to do with capitalizing on star Kristen Bell's Veronica Mars Season 3 premiere than sucking. Wes Craven wrote the script with the guy who made the J-Horror flick on which this is based. Looks promising.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
SOAP will be a bit of an issue the following week, in that, tangentially at least, it's also a horror film (but that's not why anyone's going to see it). But this week it should own. $66mil.
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STEP UP
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Save the Last Cutting Edge Dance
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, but there's not a lot of it. And I'm not just whistling dixie about Save the Last Dance. One of those writers is up in here. There's also a writer from Brids of Prey, so it's going to take a lot more than minimal buzz to convince me.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A lot of content for the yung'un's this weekend could make for a tough fight. But this seems to have a surprisingly high amount of anticipation and awareness given that there are no stars. Still, a Hillary Duff film the following weekend could hurt. $25mil.
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POSTER BOY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Senator's son is gay. Controversy ensues.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz isn't terrible, and it snagged a Jury Award at Outfest. And remember Karen Allen? She's the mommy.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Much higher profile indies going on and second frame of pseudo-gay-themed Quinceañera doesn't necessarily help. Neither does delay from July. $500,000.
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HOUSE OF SAND
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Women in the desert.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Made a splash at Sundance and several other festivals. Has the female lead from Central Station and her daughter.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's had some time to make the festival rounds and garner some buzz. Also, wisely waited three years to avoid confusion with House of Sand and Fog. $1mil.
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HALF NELSON
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ryan Gosling's a public school teacher. And he's on crack. Wouldn't you be?
WILL IT SUCK?
Excellent performances in a good film. Gosling's child co-star, Shareeka Epps, is outstanding, and that's saying a lot acting next to Gosling. More here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Trust the Man could be a bit of a problem the following week, but this week it's the highest profile indie out there. $2mil.
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August 18
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MUTHAFUCKIN' SNAKES ON A MUTHAFUCKIN' PLANE
WHAT'S THE MUTHAFUCKIN' PITCH?
Read the muthafuckin' title!
WILL IT SUCK, MUTHAFUCKA?
Does it really matter? At this point, Snakes on a Plane could prove to be the worst film in history, and it would still live up to expectations. It is now more than a movie. It is a meme. I think the first one to really reach that status before release. Blair Witch came close, but not like this. It is also the first movie title, I believe, to become a zen koan.
Pedigree-wise, I think if director David R. Ellis' last film had been called Motherfuckin' Cell Phones in Motherfuckin' Cars instead of Cellular, it would have done better. And co-writer Sebastian Gutierrez's Gothika and The Big Bounce should bring just the right amount of suck to make this worthwhile.
And if it doesn't meet your expectations? Snakes on a plane.
HOW WELL WILL THAT MUTHAFUCKA DO, MUTHAFUCKA?
It's safe to say it has no competition. There is nothing else like it on the planet. Even if people think it will suck, they will probably still see it. In fact, I think more people will come expecting it to suck than not. That is the mystery of Snakes on a Plane. It also makes coming up with a figure next to impossible. What price irony? $53mil.
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THE ILLUSIONIST
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ed Norton steals Jessica Biel from Rufus Sewell. Now that's some trick. No, actually, it's not. I think the proper term is "trading up."
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, which is surprising given the pedigree here. First of all, you've got Norton, who is the man, in spite of not turning in anything earth-shattering since 2002's The 25th Hour. You've also got Paul Giamatti. The writer/director did the little-seen but very good Interview with the Assassin. But the critical response so far has been "meh." And even I have to admit based on the trailer alone, if you compare it to the other movie about turn-of-the-century European magicians coming out this year, it comes out behind. Seriously, though, I can see there being competing volcano projects or asteroid projects, but this?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This really feels more like a fall film, and I don't care who's in the cast, I would not want to open against Snakes. $14mil.
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MATERIAL GIRLS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Simple Life in fictional movie form instead of fictional reality TV form.
WILL IT SUCK?
I know. I know. It's been forever since Hilary and Haylie have been in a movie together. I mean, like, literally. It's never happened before. And with Brent Spiner and Lukas Haas? Isn't that, like, perfect casting? I can't wait. If only they could get the writer of Aquamarine involved somehow. No. Wait. Really? Shut up. And what about that director who did Real Genius and almost nothing else you'd wanna see since? Shut! Up! I'm there.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's not exactly tween-competition-free, but it's got the strongest cast of any of them. $17mil.
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ACCEPTED
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Justin Long (the Mac) inadvertently starts a university when he tries to fool his parents into thinking he's been accepted into college.
WILL IT SUCK?
So, you look at the fact that two of the three screenwriters worked on New York Minute and you think to yourself all is lost. Then you remember that there's a third writer. You think, maybe he wrote Lawrence of Arabia or something. And then you read his credentials. Herbie: Fully Loaded and The Country Bears. This could suck worse than Zoom.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Material Girls won't do it any favors, but it's a slightly different demo. Even if this does turn into the next PCU, though, PCU didn't make that much money in theaters. $15mil.
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TRUST THE MAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Two relationships. David Duchovny and Julianne Moore. Billy Crudup and Maggie Gyllenhaal.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is generally positive, though not overwhelming. I'm just curious to see Billy Crudup play comic relief.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has the lock on the best cast for indies this week. $10mil.
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FACTOTUM
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Matt Dillon plays a Bukowski-esque figure doing Bukowski-esque things in an adaptation of a novel by John Grisham. I mean Charles Bukowski.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding, crediting not just Dillon's performance but the film overall.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not enough awareness. IFC could potentially snowball this into Oscar talk, but that'll help DVD sales, not theatrical. $3mil.
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10TH AND WOLF
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Cyclops goes all mob informant to save his brother from the pen.
WILL IT SUCK?
The trailer makes a big deal out of the fact that writer/director Bobby Moresco is the guy who wrote Crash and the whole time I'm thinking "didn't Paul Haggis write that?" Well, we're both right. Anyhoo, an interesting cast, leading to my favorite moment in the trailer when they're tallying off the supporting cast "Brian Dennehy, Brad Renfro, Tommy Lee" (sound of record scratching). Whaa!?! And he looks terrible, which is to be expected, and then when you see Val Kilmer, he looks even worse.
Frankly, I think it's a tired genre and even the promise of more of that Crash-errific dialogue (which wasn't perfect) isn't enough to lure me, nor is the prospect of seeing Giovanni Ribisi play "hard." Nor is the fact that this is based on a true story from the real life Donnie Brasco (you mean there's shit they left out of that movie?) that took place in my very own Philly. And no, I have no clue where 10th and Wolf is.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not really on anyone's radar. $2mil.
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July 25
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INVINCIBLE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Another true story based in Philly, this one about a Philadelphia Eagles fan (Mark Wahlberg) who becomes a Philadelphia Eagle.
WILL IT SUCK?
Although this comes from the same studio that did Remember the Titans and The Rookie and a host of other sports films, neither the writer nor the director had anything to do with those films. They also had nothing to do with Like Mike, so their sports flick pedigree is a blank slate. So, really, this film has more in common with Rock Star than anything else, but I won't hold that against it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Although baller flick Crossover comes out the next week, I don't consider it much competition sports-genre-wise, or cast-wise. And Wahlberg's a pretty consistent opener. $65mil.
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IDLEWILD
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Andre 3000 and Big Boi fight off gangsters. And it's a musical.
WILL IT SUCK?
This could be a 90-minute Outkast video (and given that it's written and directed by the guy who made the "Hey Ya" video, that seems likely) and it would still be entertaining. Oh, and Terence Howard is up in here, too.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
90-minute long music videos do not make good box office. $15mil.
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BEERFEST
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
From the guys who brought you Super Troopers comes a bunch of guys drinking beer competitively.
WILL IT SUCK?
I understand there's a lot of love out there for Super Troopers, so, let's say, no. I have to admit, the trailer made me chuckle in spite of myself.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has this week to itself, but Accepted the week before and Idiocracy the week after hedge it in with more stupid comedy (not to mention Snakes on a Plane). $18mil.
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THE PROTECTOR
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The only difference between this and Ong Bak is that Tony Jaa is trying to get back two elephants instead of one giant head.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed but, dude, I had a pretty good time watching him get that head back, and it's basically the same team on this deal.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Tony Jaa is not ready for wide release. $5mil.
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HOW TO EAT FRIED WORMS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Based on the popular children's novel. If you haven't read it, it involves eating fried worms.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, it's from the writer of The Banger Sisters, so I'm not sold. But hey, anything that gives Tom Cavanaugh work.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You've got Lassie the following week but a bunch of parents who grew up on the book and may want their kids to see it, but that's kind of a big if. $19mil.
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THE QUIET
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Deaf girl moves in with a seriously fucked up family.
WILL IT SUCK?
Reviews here are pretty mixed. You've got But I'm a Cheerleader writer/director (here only directing) Jamie Babbit calling the shots only with less of the ha-ha and more of the okay-you're-creeping-me-out.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The trailer, which you should avoid since it seems pretty spoiler-happy, hints at some pseudo-lesbian shit involving Elisha Cuthbert's character which, if frat boys watched art house movie trailers, would turn this into the next Wild Things. $6mil.
Next month: Sean Penn and Jet Li do what they do best. Just not in the same movie.