
by Dave Thomas
This month, we begin the long road to Oscar and start weighing each film's chances but, judging by the pickings, most studios are not going to turn on the nitro this early in the race.
September 1
CRANK
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jason Statham has to keep his adrenaline up or he'll die. So he kills a bunch of people.
WILL IT SUCK?
Could it really be any worse than a Transporter film?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little bit of competition from The Protector next week, but I think more people know who Jason Statham is than Tony Jaa. $44mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If there was a stunt Oscar, perhaps. One of the writer/directors is a former stunt coordinator.
---------------------------------------
THE WICKER MAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Remake of the cult classic where a guy (Nic Cage) goes to a weird town where weird shit happens.
WILL IT SUCK?
Remakes of classic horror films (or any classic) especially ones from overseas are notoriously hard to pull off. I'd like to say if anyone can do it, it's Neil LaButte, who directs and writes here. He's a great writer/director, but he's never done anything like this before. On the other hand, I give him mad props for trying something new. If anything, in the past he's been a great emotional horror film director (In the Company of Men, Your Friends and Neighbors), so perhaps he can make that incarnate. And further mad props to Nic Cage for pulling off this and World Trade Center in short order.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You could sort of pose an argument about The Covenant being a threat next week, but not really. I think the bigger obstacle is finding an audience for quirky Brit horror. $25mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Cage gets a nod, it'll be for WTC.
---------------------------------------
CROSSOVER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Baller sports drama.
WILL IT SUCK?
The good news is that Wayne Brady plays a bad guy. The bad news is that he probably doesn't say, "Is Wayne Brady gonna have to choke a bitch?" Other than that, rest assured that while you may not have heard of writer/director Preston A. Whitmore II's scripts for Lockdown or A Civil Brand, the critics have and wish they hadn't.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's not much genre competition, but this genre rarely produces hits. $23mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Wayne Brady should get a nod for his performance on Chappelle's Show, even though it wasn't a movie. Or this year.
---------------------------------------
THIS FILM IS NOT YET RATED
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about the MPAA.
WILL IT SUCK?
Saw this at SXSW and lemme tell ya, it's the good shit. Ranks right up there with The Aristocrats and Fuck (later this fall) as a free speech trifecta.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Idiocracy may steal some of the audience, but this has a good buzz to ride going back to Sundance. $7mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'll be surprised if it's even eligible.
---------------------------------------
RIDING ALONE FOR THOUSANDS OF MILES
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A man tries to reconcile with his son by doing the title and then recording a famous opera star's performance because that's how you reconcile, fool.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is Yimou Zhang we're talking about here, son. He don't mess. Hero, To Live, Raise the Red Lantern, and this ranks right now with House of Flying Daggers on IMDB. Yes, I regret that there will be no major ass-whuppings in this drama, but Zhang will get back to the beat-downs with his next project, which involves Chow to the Yun to the Fat.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Never mind the, er, intimidating title, it's hard to sell a Zhang flick without the major ass-whuppings. Kicking Ass for Thousands of Miles? Now thta's a title American audiences can get behind. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
You can't put it past Zhang, but I think it'll be hard without stars.
---------------------------------------
LASSIE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
It's Lassie. And she's doing stuff.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and the cast, while not Roddy McDowell and Elizabeth Taylor, is still Samantha Morton, Peter O'Toole and Peter Dinklage, which I kind of prefer.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Interesting strategy going with the limited release. Not a usual move for a family film. And the arthouse audience, not so much with the families. We'll see. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Movies about animals usually have a hard time at the Oscars unless they're docs about penguins. And that was, like, once.
---------------------------------------
IDIOCRACY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy wakes up after hibernating for 500 years to discover everyone got dumber while he was asleep.
WILL IT SUCK?
This has been delayed quite a few times, which is surprising given that Mike Judge is writing and directing here, with Luke Wilson and Stephen Root along for the ride.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The constant release date changes aren't doing it any favors, and if this is from the director of the wildly popular Office Space, limited release isn't necessarily the way to go, either. $9mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but if you could give one Oscar to Office Space, what would it be?
---------------------------------------
September 8
---------------------------------------
THE COVENANT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Shitty Lost Boys
WILL IT SUCK?
I've said it before and I'll say it again -- How the fuck does Renny Harlin keep getting work? And the only thing you've heard of from the writer is Sniper 3, and that's because maybe you've heard there was a movie called Sniper.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This looks just dumb enough to attract a Final Destination-y kind of crowd. $33mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but can we have Harlin drawn and quartered at the half-time show? Come to think of it, can we have a half-time show? The Oscars are just too short.
---------------------------------------
HOLLYWOODLAND
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A fictionalized account of the investigation into the death of Superman actor George Reeves.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. That makes sense given the television pedigree of the director (Rome, Sopranos) and the writer (21 Jump Street, A-Team). Still, this should be Ben Affleck's best movie in years. And after the implosion of Mel Gibson and Tom Cruise, he no longer has to hold the mantle of Most Reviled Actor.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Interesting move by Focus to release this wide, especially with Black Dahlia opening the following weekend. Although Affleck won't hurt this as much as you might think, the niche appeal might be better served by a limited release. $23mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
As enticing the notion of Affleck winning a second Oscar (bet you forgot) would be, no.
---------------------------------------
THE PROTECTOR
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The only difference between this and Ong Bak is that Tony Jaa is trying to get back two elephants instead of one giant head.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed but, dude, I had a pretty good time watching him get that head back, and it's basically the same team on this deal.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Tony Jaa is not ready for wide release. $6mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If only there were an Oscar for Best Kicker of Ass.
---------------------------------------

SHERRYBABY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Maggie Gyllenhaal in an Independent Movie with Oscar Potential.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but how can you beat Danny Trejo in a breakout performance as someone other than "that guy who scares me."
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some fairly high profile indie docs next week, but no direct competish and certainly no bigger names. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Mediocre buzz will carry you if you're Memoirs of a Geisha. This, not so much. Maggie's got a better shot with her WTC performance.
---------------------------------------
September 15
---------------------------------------
GRIDIRON GANG
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Remember the Juvies
WILL IT SUCK?
First of all, it's good to see Phil Joanou direct again, even though he hasn't made anything good since the "If God Will Send His Angels" video. Maybe that's why the trailer looks like a music video for "Ghetto Pop Life" (with lines like "I'm givin' bitches good dick" omitted for some reason). The writer has some experience with sports films, having contributed a story credit on Victory (Who among you will put Michael Caine and Sylvester Stallone in a movie together again? I challenge you!) but his best effort is the screenplay for In the Line of Fire (he also contributed to the Timeline screenplay, but we'll ignore that for now).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some manly stuff coming out next week with Jet Li's seal of approval, but this week it's a question of stay at home and watch football, or go to the movies. $34mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If they didn't remember the Titans, they won't remember this.
---------------------------------------
THE LAST KISS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Zach Braff struggles with adulthood. Again.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is a remake of an Italian film directed by a guy who directed Will Smith in this fall's The Pursuit of Happyness. Nothing to do with the quality, just thought that was neat. Paul Haggis did the adaptation on this mother, so it has potential. It's a little soon to say that Braff has a keen eye for material since he's only led one flick so far it's one he wrote and directed. Still, this seems to have a bit more weight behind it than necessary for your garden variety romcom vehicle. Tony Goldwyn directs, for those of you wondering what he'd do after A Walk on the Moon, Someon Like You, a few eps of Grey's Anatomy and, of course, betraying Patrick Swayze in Ghost.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Braff is poised for the transition into medi-stardom, which is probably why he's prepared to leave Scrubs (sniff). This should help. $27mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There's maybe a one in a hundred shot for Braff which, in the grand scheme of things, isn't all that bad.
---------------------------------------
THE BLACK DAHLIA
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Part One of James Ellroy's L.A. Quartet has two cops investigating the brutal murder of a young would-be starlet. Based on a true, grisly story.
WILL IT SUCK?
I've had my doubts about this project from the start. After reading The Black Dahlia I realized that an adaptation would be next to impossible. When they put Josh Friedman, a relative unknown on the case, I became even more wary. Then I started reading his blog. I have more confidence now. And I really liked War of the Worlds (I'll blame the last five minutes on Spielberg).
DePalma is, of course, hit-or-miss, but I feel like he's in his element here. IMDB'ers seem to agree. Dahlia's rated there as his best film since Carlito's Way.
And Josh Hartnett? Well, Bucky Bleichert's supposed to be an ex-boxer. Real tough guy. From Sin City to Lucky Number Slevin, Hartnett's slowly been convincing me, but I'm not there yet. Scarlett Johannssenn, Aaron Eckhart, Hilary Swank and Mia Kirshner should all be fabulous.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Forget noirs, how about a slew of period pieces from one weekend to the next? Hollywoodland, this and All the King's Men next weekend. Men is the king in that trio. $41mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Ellroy has worked that magic before, and Swank's no stranger to the Academy. Consider it in play.
---------------------------------------
EVERYONE'S HERO
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
In this animated adventure, a kid named Yankee (yes, Yankee) has to get Babe Ruth's bat back from they guy who stole it. Yankee. Seriously.
WILL IT SUCK?
Did I mention that the bat talks? With the voice of Whoopi Goldberg! He has a talking baseball companion as well.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's nothing else out there for kids (until, you know, Jackass 2 next week). $20mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Yes, Christopher Reeve started directing this before he died. No, that will not be enough to get the sympathy nod for Best Animated Picture.
---------------------------------------
CONFETTI
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Best Wedding in Show
WILL IT SUCK?
After thinking this was one of the funniest trailers of the year, I wasn't surprised to find out it was nominated for a trailer award. Early buzz is good, and how can you not be all about Martin Freeman getting more work?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Science of Sleep is going to be an issue the following week, but this is nicely distanced from For Your Consideration, the latest from mockumentary mogul Christopher Guest. None of that will matter if Fox Searchlight, who bought this after watching only 20 minutes at Cannes, doesn't start buying ad time on Comedy Central or, better yet, TLC, Bravo and HGTV. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There may not be a harder form of acting than improv. Some of the best character actors in the world have found their way into Christopher Guest films and the like. They have yet to be recognized by the Academy.
---------------------------------------
THE U.S. VS. JOHN LENNON
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Did you know that John Lennon was a - gasp - anti-war activist? Yes, of course. Everybody knew that.
WILL IT SUCK?
Given that Lennon has one of the most recorded lives in history, it should be no surprise that there's material for more than one doc about the man. Early buzz is good, though I'm really curious to see what sort of insights they can wring out of Geraldo.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There is an audience, believe it or not, for films that reflect poorly on the current state of the world. Still, I don't know that I'd release this the same weekend as The Ground Truth. $2mil.
---------------------------------------
THE GROUND TRUTH
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about our troops -- from recruitment to the return home.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Looks like it will be difficult, but wholly necessary and rewarding, to watch.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little competish from Lennon, plus Focus really needs to get the word out. The release plan also complicates matters, but if any film deserves day and date, it's this one. It'll be on DVD 11 days after release. Unfortunately, this means only Landmark will have the balls to carry it. Seriously, folks, aren't there more important issues than market cannibalism? $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Gunner Palace couldn't get any love, I don't see how this will.
---------------------------------------
THE AMATEURS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Small town decides to shoot a porno.
WILL IT SUCK?
The writer/director wrote Dead Man on Campus. And though the following actors are strong - Jeff Bridges, Joey Pants, Tim Blake Nelson, William Fichtner - the idea of seeing them in a porno is not an inducement to buy (sadly, I've already seen full-frontal Nelson in The Good Girl). Lauren Graham, Jeanne Tripplehorn, Glenne Headly and Judy Greer, on the other hand...
This was supposed to come out in March. Why was it delayed? Was it sucking? I bet it was sucking.
Early buzz is mixed, with audiences liking it and critics, not so much.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You know what? The Chumscrubber had a huge cast, too, and nobody saw it. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If we see Joey Pants' junk, yes, but not in a good way.
---------------------------------------
HAVEN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Bill Paxton, Orlando Bloom and Agnes Bruckner in a caper that takes place in the Caymans.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty solidly awful. Too bad. The trailer looks halfway decent.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not too much competition cast or genre-wise. On the other hand, this feels a little straight-to-DVDish. $750,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not so much. But where were they when Paxton directed the shit out of Frailty? Sorry, I'm still bitter.
---------------------------------------
AURORA BOREALIS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Pacey does the Garden State thing.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and it's won awards at three festivals so far (not that you'll have heard of any of these festivals).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Flying pretty low under the radar right now. $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Unless it does a lot better than I'm expecting, Donald Sutherland's performance as the doddering old grandfather will also fly under the radar.
---------------------------------------
ARTIE LANGE'S BEER LEAGUE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Artie Lange has a softball team. They drink beer.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. If I watched MadTV or listened to Howard Stern more, I'd probably know who the fuck Artie Lange is. As it is, all I can really say about this film is "Look! It's Ralph Macchio! And he's in a movie!"
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably has about as good a following as any limited release this week. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Howard first, then Artie.
---------------------------------------
September 22
---------------------------------------
JACKASS: NUMBER TWO
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
More lawsuits in a can.
WILL IT SUCK?
Imagine. Jackass in the age of Saw.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Fearless may actually be an issue, but expect this to surpass its predecessor. $70mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Oscars would only sully this.
---------------------------------------
JET LI'S FEARLESS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Sort of like Mortal Kombat, but this actually happened.
WILL IT SUCK?
First off, don't be freaked out by the fact that this is being touted as Li's last martial arts epic. His next film is the action-thriller Rogue, and I don't think he's playing the police chief that sits behind his desk the whole movie (although that would be awesome). I think this is his last period piece, is all.
Ronny Yu, on the other hand, is just getting started. Like many Hong Kong directors, his American fare hasn't measured up to his native efforts. In Hong Kong -- Bride with the White Hair. In the States -- Bride of Chucky. This, however, is considered his best film by the folks who vote at IMDB. The other critics have also been kind.
None of that really matters, though. They had me at Yuen Woo Ping.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it weren't opening against Jackass it might do better. Still. $54mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No. But Yuen Woo Ping deserves a lifetime achievement award.
---------------------------------------
ALL THE KING'S MEN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Remake of the 1949 classic (or new adaptation of the novel, depending upon how you want to look at it) about Huey Long (well, not actually about Huey Long, but really, it was).
WILL IT SUCK?
This film was built to kick ass. Steve Zaillian is a damn good writer. Schindler's List. Awakenings. Clear and Present Danger (hey, I liked it). And when he writes and directs? Sheeiiit! We're talkin' about Searching for Bobby Fischer and A Civil Action, son.
But "What about the cast?" you say. I say how about Sean Penn? How about Jude Law? How about Anthony Hopkins? How about James Gandolfini? How about Patricia Clarkson? How about Kate Winslett? How about Mark Ruffalo? How about Kevin Dunn? Does that do it for you? Are you satisfied?
Now, how about the fact that the first film is considered damn near flawless and there's really no need to remake it? Yeah, I got no answer for that. But I'm still curious.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's a lot of product out there, but Zallian's never had a better cast. $71mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If this is half as good as it should be, will they remember anything else?
---------------------------------------
FLYBOYS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The adventures of American volunteers in the French air force during WWI. See, we used to get along.
WILL IT SUCK?
The director did My Bodyguard. What more do you need? Actually, he did some other stuff, too, which wasn't so good. The same can be said of writer David S. Ward, who wrote The Sting...and King Ralph. That just doesn't seem right, somehow.
The aerial sequences in the trailer look amazing. It's what happens on the ground that concerns me.
Incidentally, a gazillionaire named Larry Ellison threw in almost $30mil of the $60mil budget. Is anyone else having an Aviator moment here?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's already a pretty guy-heavy weekend, though this has more date potential than, say, Jackass. $23mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Some fx nods are not out of the question.
---------------------------------------
AMERICAN HARDCORE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Punk doc.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. The director does music videos, and the writer literally wrote the book on American Hardcore.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A lot of the audience for this movie will already be out at punk shows. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Music docs have a notoriously hard time getting nods.
---------------------------------------
RENAISSANCE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Animated noir set in Paris in the future.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. This took home the top prize at the Annecy International Animated Film Festival, and don't let the fact that you've never heard of that particular festival deter you. The animation looks amazing. By the way, what's the deal with French dystopian future action flicks, anyway? There've been, like, two this year. Banlieue 13 and this. Okay, maybe it's not a thing. But before this year how many could you name?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's already one super-hip indie coming out this week. I don't think there's room for two. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This could be good for an animated nod.
---------------------------------------
THE SCIENCE OF SLEEP
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Michel Gondry does the quirky romcom thing again, this time with Gael Garcia Bernal as a dreamer who longs for the girl next door.
WILL IT SUCK?
The general buzz is "good, but no Eternal Sunshine."
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Along with This Film Is Not Yet Rated, pretty much the indie release of the month. $12mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Sunshine had Carrey to help it get Oscar attention. I don't see that happening here without him.
Very Limited
---------------------------------------
FEAST
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Project Greenlight makes a horror film.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good which, for a Project Greenlight film is, like, fucking amazing. Navi Rawat from Numb3rs and Thoughtcrimes (okay, only two people saw that) is up in here along with a Silent Bob-less Jason Mewes.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Strangely, this film's toughest competition is probably Jackass. That and the fact that its only showing for two midnight screenings before coming out on DVD in October. $10,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Needs one full week of theatrical release, but no, that wouldn't help, really.
---------------------------------------
September 29
---------------------------------------
OPEN SEASON
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Brother Bear with more shooting.
WILL IT SUCK?
Oh, good. I thought I'd have to go a whole month without a movie where sassy animals stick it to the man. Oh, and this one is actually from the same writers as Brother Bear and Chicken Little. Whee.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Alex Rider provides a little bit of competition the following weekend, but (thankfully) there are no more talking animals for miles. $57mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think only one of the talking animal flicks will make it in this year. It could be this one.
---------------------------------------
SCHOOL FOR SCOUNDRELS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jon Heder tries to learn how not to be a doormat with a little help from Billy Bob Thornton.
WILL IT SUCK?
Todd Philips has directed such gems as Road Trip, Old School and Starsky & Hutch. He co-wrote those with Scott Armstrong. Same deal here. Along with Heder and Thornton, you've got Todd Louiso, Luis Guzman and David Cross in the mix. I have high hopes.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
We'll see just how big a star Dane Cook is when his Employee of the Month takes on the second frame of this flick. I don't think this one has that much to worry about, though. $48mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I like Todd Philips, but I'm not ready to give him an Oscar just yet. Neither are they.
---------------------------------------
THE GUARDIAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kevin Costner must protect Ashton Kutcher, but instead, they fall in love. No, wait, that's The Bodyguard. Kevin Costner has to rescue two stolen elephants. No, that's The Protector. I've got it. Costner mentors Kutcher through a rescue swimmer program. Wow. My gay elephant movie is starting to look pretty good right about now, huh?
WILL IT SUCK?
Not to belabor the point, but the writer did the unreleasable D-Tox. On the other hand, director Andrew Davis shoots about 50% from the free throw line, so...nah, that D-Tox thing sinks it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Those who want to see some real mentoring (Jack Nicholson shuffling Leo DiCaprio through the mob) will turn their attentions to The Departed the following week, but this week the Cult of Kutcher will show up. $58mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'm not sure Kutcher's even been invited to the Oscars yet.
---------------------------------------
THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Idi and Me
WILL IT SUCK?
The director did the outstanding One Day in September and the equally powerful (I'm told) Touching the Void. It'll be interesting to see what he does with a narrative feature, even if it is based on true events. I also have a feeling that Forest Whitaker will kick all sorts of ass as Idi Amin. Plus Gillian Anderson is in there and I'm sure that will be nice, too.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
To be perfectly honest, I don't think all that many people give a crap about Idi Amin. Oscar buzz might help, though. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Whitaker could pull it off.
---------------------------------------
SLEEPING DOGS LIE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Woman shares a dirty secret with her fiance which, if you were paying any attention at all during Sundance, you already know what it is.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is kind of "meh," which is a step up from Bob Goldthwait's last writing/directing gig, Shakes the Clown.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Shortbus will push the envelope even further the following week, but curiousity should make for a nice opening. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There is no category for that secret.
---------------------------------------
A GUIDE TO RECOGNIZING YOUR SAINTS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Writer/director Dito Montiel's semi-autobiographical flick has him, in Robert Downey, Jr. form, going back to his old neighborhood to take care off his ailing father (in Chazz Palminteri form).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good in spite of a mixed reaction at Sundance. Mean Streets comparisons get tossed around a lot. Shia LaBeouf plays young Dito.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Scotland might be a little more high profile, but this has buzz going back to January, so we'll see. $5mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That's probably pushing it.
Next Month: Martin Scorsese directs Jack Nicholson for the first time. Unfortunately, it's in a remake.