
by Dave Thomas
This month, we begin the long road to Oscar and start weighing each film's chances but, judging by the pickings, most studios are not going to turn on the nitro this early in the race.
September 1
CRANK
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jason Statham has to keep his adrenaline up or he'll die. So he kills a bunch of people.
WILL IT SUCK?
Could it really be any worse than a Transporter film?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little bit of competition from The Protector next week, but I think more people know who Jason Statham is than Tony Jaa. $44mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If there was a stunt Oscar, perhaps. One of the writer/directors is a former stunt coordinator.
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THE WICKER MAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Remake of the cult classic where a guy (Nic Cage) goes to a weird town where weird shit happens.
WILL IT SUCK?
Remakes of classic horror films (or any classic) especially ones from overseas are notoriously hard to pull off. I'd like to say if anyone can do it, it's Neil LaButte, who directs and writes here. He's a great writer/director, but he's never done anything like this before. On the other hand, I give him mad props for trying something new. If anything, in the past he's been a great emotional horror film director (In the Company of Men, Your Friends and Neighbors), so perhaps he can make that incarnate. And further mad props to Nic Cage for pulling off this and World Trade Center in short order.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You could sort of pose an argument about The Covenant being a threat next week, but not really. I think the bigger obstacle is finding an audience for quirky Brit horror. $25mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Cage gets a nod, it'll be for WTC.
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CROSSOVER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Baller sports drama.
WILL IT SUCK?
The good news is that Wayne Brady plays a bad guy. The bad news is that he probably doesn't say, "Is Wayne Brady gonna have to choke a bitch?" Other than that, rest assured that while you may not have heard of writer/director Preston A. Whitmore II's scripts for Lockdown or A Civil Brand, the critics have and wish they hadn't.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's not much genre competition, but this genre rarely produces hits. $23mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Wayne Brady should get a nod for his performance on Chappelle's Show, even though it wasn't a movie. Or this year.
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THIS FILM IS NOT YET RATED
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about the MPAA.
WILL IT SUCK?
Saw this at SXSW and lemme tell ya, it's the good shit. Ranks right up there with The Aristocrats and Fuck (later this fall) as a free speech trifecta.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Idiocracy may steal some of the audience, but this has a good buzz to ride going back to Sundance. $7mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'll be surprised if it's even eligible.
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RIDING ALONE FOR THOUSANDS OF MILES
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A man tries to reconcile with his son by doing the title and then recording a famous opera star's performance because that's how you reconcile, fool.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is Yimou Zhang we're talking about here, son. He don't mess. Hero, To Live, Raise the Red Lantern, and this ranks right now with House of Flying Daggers on IMDB. Yes, I regret that there will be no major ass-whuppings in this drama, but Zhang will get back to the beat-downs with his next project, which involves Chow to the Yun to the Fat.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Never mind the, er, intimidating title, it's hard to sell a Zhang flick without the major ass-whuppings. Kicking Ass for Thousands of Miles? Now thta's a title American audiences can get behind. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
You can't put it past Zhang, but I think it'll be hard without stars.
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LASSIE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
It's Lassie. And she's doing stuff.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and the cast, while not Roddy McDowell and Elizabeth Taylor, is still Samantha Morton, Peter O'Toole and Peter Dinklage, which I kind of prefer.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Interesting strategy going with the limited release. Not a usual move for a family film. And the arthouse audience, not so much with the families. We'll see. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Movies about animals usually have a hard time at the Oscars unless they're docs about penguins. And that was, like, once.
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IDIOCRACY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy wakes up after hibernating for 500 years to discover everyone got dumber while he was asleep.
WILL IT SUCK?
This has been delayed quite a few times, which is surprising given that Mike Judge is writing and directing here, with Luke Wilson and Stephen Root along for the ride.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The constant release date changes aren't doing it any favors, and if this is from the director of the wildly popular Office Space, limited release isn't necessarily the way to go, either. $9mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but if you could give one Oscar to Office Space, what would it be?
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September 8
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THE COVENANT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Shitty Lost Boys
WILL IT SUCK?
I've said it before and I'll say it again -- How the fuck does Renny Harlin keep getting work? And the only thing you've heard of from the writer is Sniper 3, and that's because maybe you've heard there was a movie called Sniper.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This looks just dumb enough to attract a Final Destination-y kind of crowd. $33mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but can we have Harlin drawn and quartered at the half-time show? Come to think of it, can we have a half-time show? The Oscars are just too short.
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HOLLYWOODLAND
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A fictionalized account of the investigation into the death of Superman actor George Reeves.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. That makes sense given the television pedigree of the director (Rome, Sopranos) and the writer (21 Jump Street, A-Team). Still, this should be Ben Affleck's best movie in years. And after the implosion of Mel Gibson and Tom Cruise, he no longer has to hold the mantle of Most Reviled Actor.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Interesting move by Focus to release this wide, especially with Black Dahlia opening the following weekend. Although Affleck won't hurt this as much as you might think, the niche appeal might be better served by a limited release. $23mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
As enticing the notion of Affleck winning a second Oscar (bet you forgot) would be, no.
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THE PROTECTOR
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The only difference between this and Ong Bak is that Tony Jaa is trying to get back two elephants instead of one giant head.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed but, dude, I had a pretty good time watching him get that head back, and it's basically the same team on this deal.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Tony Jaa is not ready for wide release. $6mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If only there were an Oscar for Best Kicker of Ass.
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SHERRYBABY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Maggie Gyllenhaal in an Independent Movie with Oscar Potential.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but how can you beat Danny Trejo in a breakout performance as someone other than "that guy who scares me."
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some fairly high profile indie docs next week, but no direct competish and certainly no bigger names. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Mediocre buzz will carry you if you're Memoirs of a Geisha. This, not so much. Maggie's got a better shot with her WTC performance.
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September 15
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GRIDIRON GANG
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Remember the Juvies
WILL IT SUCK?
First of all, it's good to see Phil Joanou direct again, even though he hasn't made anything good since the "If God Will Send His Angels" video. Maybe that's why the trailer looks like a music video for "Ghetto Pop Life" (with lines like "I'm givin' bitches good dick" omitted for some reason). The writer has some experience with sports films, having contributed a story credit on Victory (Who among you will put Michael Caine and Sylvester Stallone in a movie together again? I challenge you!) but his best effort is the screenplay for In the Line of Fire (he also contributed to the Timeline screenplay, but we'll ignore that for now).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some manly stuff coming out next week with Jet Li's seal of approval, but this week it's a question of stay at home and watch football, or go to the movies. $34mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If they didn't remember the Titans, they won't remember this.
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THE LAST KISS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Zach Braff struggles with adulthood. Again.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is a remake of an Italian film directed by a guy who directed Will Smith in this fall's The Pursuit of Happyness. Nothing to do with the quality, just thought that was neat. Paul Haggis did the adaptation on this mother, so it has potential. It's a little soon to say that Braff has a keen eye for material since he's only led one flick so far it's one he wrote and directed. Still, this seems to have a bit more weight behind it than necessary for your garden variety romcom vehicle. Tony Goldwyn directs, for those of you wondering what he'd do after A Walk on the Moon, Someon Like You, a few eps of Grey's Anatomy and, of course, betraying Patrick Swayze in Ghost.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Braff is poised for the transition into medi-stardom, which is probably why he's prepared to leave Scrubs (sniff). This should help. $27mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There's maybe a one in a hundred shot for Braff which, in the grand scheme of things, isn't all that bad.
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THE BLACK DAHLIA
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Part One of James Ellroy's L.A. Quartet has two cops investigating the brutal murder of a young would-be starlet. Based on a true, grisly story.
WILL IT SUCK?
I've had my doubts about this project from the start. After reading The Black Dahlia I realized that an adaptation would be next to impossible. When they put Josh Friedman, a relative unknown on the case, I became even more wary. Then I started reading his blog. I have more confidence now. And I really liked War of the Worlds (I'll blame the last five minutes on Spielberg).
DePalma is, of course, hit-or-miss, but I feel like he's in his element here. IMDB'ers seem to agree. Dahlia's rated there as his best film since Carlito's Way.
And Josh Hartnett? Well, Bucky Bleichert's supposed to be an ex-boxer. Real tough guy. From Sin City to Lucky Number Slevin, Hartnett's slowly been convincing me, but I'm not there yet. Scarlett Johannssenn, Aaron Eckhart, Hilary Swank and Mia Kirshner should all be fabulous.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Forget noirs, how about a slew of period pieces from one weekend to the next? Hollywoodland, this and All the King's Men next weekend. Men is the king in that trio. $41mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Ellroy has worked that magic before, and Swank's no stranger to the Academy. Consider it in play.
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EVERYONE'S HERO
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
In this animated adventure, a kid named Yankee (yes, Yankee) has to get Babe Ruth's bat back from they guy who stole it. Yankee. Seriously.
WILL IT SUCK?
Did I mention that the bat talks? With the voice of Whoopi Goldberg! He has a talking baseball companion as well.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's nothing else out there for kids (until, you know, Jackass 2 next week). $20mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Yes, Christopher Reeve started directing this before he died. No, that will not be enough to get the sympathy nod for Best Animated Picture.
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CONFETTI
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Best Wedding in Show
WILL IT SUCK?
After thinking this was one of the funniest trailers of the year, I wasn't surprised to find out it was nominated for a trailer award. Early buzz is good, and how can you not be all about Martin Freeman getting more work?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Science of Sleep is going to be an issue the following week, but this is nicely distanced from For Your Consideration, the latest from mockumentary mogul Christopher Guest. None of that will matter if Fox Searchlight, who bought this after watching only 20 minutes at Cannes, doesn't start buying ad time on Comedy Central or, better yet, TLC, Bravo and HGTV. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There may not be a harder