by Dave Thomas

As the Oscar race heats up, I have to admit that I'm more interested in Borat and Bond (though one of those might actually be a contender).
NOVEMBER 3
THE SANTA CLAUSE 3: THE ESCAPE CLAUSE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Tim Allen vs. Martin Short. Whoever wins, we lose.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, only as much as The Santa Clause 2 or The Wild. Same writers. The director is a holdover from Clause 2 as well. Normally, I'd be pretty psyched for a film that starred Kevin Pollack as Cupid, but somehow that isn't happening here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Flushed Away will be an issue, but there's a lot of Tim Allen love out there. $72mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No. But if this movie were coming out in March for some reason, you can bet Allen and Short would present.
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BORAT: CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sacha Baron Cohen pisses off an entire country.
WILL IT SUCK?
Critics say that this may be the best (and most offensive) comedy of the year. Larry Charles directs, which is a master stroke given the vein of comedy being mined here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Picked probably the most family-friendly weekend of the season to release, thus guaranteeing no competition. And the government of Kazakhstan is providing the best marketing a $7,800 per capita income can buy. $67mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Cohen is on the short list for Best Actor. I shit you not.
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FLUSHED AWAY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A posh rat gets flushed down the toilet by an uncouth rat. Moist culture clash ensues.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is from Aardman studios, who have gone from making claymation to making computer generated animation that looks like claymation. Hugh Jackman, in line to win this year's Jude Law Ubiquity Award, voices the lead. Early buzz is good, in spite of a very mixed bag of writers, only one of whom had anything to do with a previous Aardman film - Chicken Run.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think more people know about The Santa Clause 3 at this point. $57mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Good for an animated nod, though probably not a win like last year's Aardman entry.
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VOLVER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Pedro Almodovar and Penepole Cruz reunite.
WILL IT SUCK?
Though American critics fawn over Almodovar, he is often a prophet without honor in his own country -- except this time. So when Spanish critics, American critics and Cannes (who bestowed three major awards on the film) all agree, something must be up. Never mind the fact that Almodovar almost never sucks.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Almodovar can do decent box office, and the Almodovar WOW! tour currently going on won't hurt. $6mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Spain certainly hopes so. It's their submission for a Foreign Film Oscar. I'd say keep an eye on Cruz as well for Best Actress. Her performance is getting mad buzz.
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November 10
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STRANGER THAN FICTION
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy (Will Ferrell) hears narration in his head. Turns out it's coming from the woman (Emma Thompson) who's literally writing his life.
WILL IT SUCK?
Marc Forster (Monster's Ball, Finding Neverland) lost a little cred with Stay, but I like the fact that he keeps trying new genres. Early buzz is mixed, but generally good. Still, this is the sort of plot I'd love to see come from the pen of Charlie Kaufman. We'll have to see if newbie Zach Helm is up to the task.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little competition from the second frame of Borat and the following week Casino Royale will suck up a lot of oxygen leaving little for this and Tenacious D, however, none of those films have Will Ferrell. $61mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Maybe screenplay. Maybe even Ferrell?
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THE RETURN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Grudge, Too, As Well
WILL IT SUCK?
You could probably do worse than acclaimed director Asif Kapadia (The Warrior) at the helm. And then you've got a guy who wrote an episode of Night Stalker doing the screenplay. But whether either of these guys can make hay of what appears to be yet another vengeful spirit story with the exact same star of the most successful vengeful spirit story ever is anybody's guess.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not a lot of horror competition, but that may be because horror films aren't usually trotted out after Halloween. $25mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Best Film Not Based On a Japanese Film Even Though It Seems Like It Must Be Based On a Japanese Film. It's a new category.
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A GOOD YEAR
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
How Russell Got His Groove Back
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, which is too bad since Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe are usually The Men. This may be tempered, however, by the writer of Serendipity.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Ironically, Stranger Than Fiction might be the more successful date movie. $33mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Russell's usually good for a nod, but not this time.
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HARSH TIMES
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
American Psycho N the Hood
WILL IT SUCK?
This is from David Ayer, the guy who wrote Training Day, Dark Blue, S.W.A.T., The Fast and the Furious and U-571. Furious and the last twenty minutes of Dark Blue notwithstanding, the guy's sharp and has a facility for L.A. corruption. This is his directorial debut, for which I have been waiting for quite some time. Only making the pot sweeter are Christian Bale and Freddie Rodriguez as the leads. Early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This isn't exactly a popular genre. Training Day did well but had, you know, Denzel Washington. $47mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Nods for Bale or Rodriguez (who might finally have a breakout role here) aren't out of the question.
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FUR: AN IMAGINARY PORTRAIT OF DIANE ARBUS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
What do you want? It's the most self-explanatory title since Snakes on a Plane.
WILL IT SUCK?
Given that the writing/directing team behind Secretary is all up in this along with Nicole Kidman as Arbus and Robert Downey, Jr. as Cousin It, you'd expect better than mediocre buzz.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think limited release is a smart move here. It makes this a big fish in a little pond -- until next week when all indie hell breaks loose. $10mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'd say look for Kidman and Downey, but I'm not sure the buzz will sustain that kind of prediction.
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FUCK
WHAT'S THE FUCKIN' PITCH?
Doc about the word "Fuck."
WILL IT FUCK?
One of the best flicks I've seen all year. See me wax about free speech on it here and an interview with the director here.
HOW FUCKTASTICALLY WELL WILL IT DO?
It's kind of hard to get the word out about a movie that, as the tag line says, dare not speak its name, but that won't stop us from trying. $4mil.
WILL THOSE FUCKWADS AT THE ACADEMY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'll be impressed if this and/or This Film Is Not Yet Rated even make it onto the eligible list.
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November 17
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CASINO ROYALE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bond Begins
WILL IT SUCK?
If you have any doubts about Daniel Craig's ability to portray Bond, watch Layer Cake. Your fears will be allayed. If that doesn't work, watch the kick-ass trailers that suggest a return to a more brutal Bond. I can take or leave Martin Campbell (Goldeneye) at the helm and the writers of the last two Bonds reprising screenplay duty, but I'm very curious to see what happens when you throw Paul Haggis in the mix.
Oh, and parkour, baby! Parkour!
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's Bond. There is no competition. $140mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I don't know that there's ever been an Oscar-worthy performance in a Bond film. You?
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HAPPY FEET
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dancing penguins. Animated dancing penguins.
WILL IT SUCK?
Interesting pedigree here. Let's take a moment to reflect upon the versatility of George Miller. He wrote and directed the Mad Max trilogy, Lorenzo's Oil and Babe: Pig in the City, one of the most clandestinely awesome kid's films of all time. Here he's joined by co-writers from those films and Master and Commander. In spite of my aversion to the glut of talking animals this year and my inability to find one trailer for this film that I like, I have to say I'm impressed. Also, early buzz is surprisingly good.
And chalk up another 2006 role for Hugh Jackman - his second talking animal this month.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some minor competition from Deck the Halls the following week, but holidays + kid's flick is usually a no-brainer. $110mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Seems a good bet for a Best Animated nod.
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LET'S GO TO PRISON
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dax Shepard and Will Arnett go to jail.
WILL IT SUCK?
Normally the pairing of Arnett and director Bob Odenkirk would be enough, but the presence of writers from Taxi, Herbie: Fully Loaded and The Pacifier gives me pause.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
How many people, really, have heard of Mr. Show? And if Arnett had the following that could open a movie, Arrested Development would still be on the air (sniff). And people can get their cult comedy on the following week with Tenacious D. $21mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but can we give Arrested Development an Oscar for being awesome? Even though it's not, you know, a movie?
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FAST FOOD NATION
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Foodiana
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is just not that good. Which is too bad since (a) I love me some Linklater, (b) the source material is so strong and (c) the cast is one of the best, if eclectic, of the fall, with Catalina Sandino Moreno, Esai Morales (remember him?), Bobby Cannavale, Luis Guzman, Greg Kinnear and Bruce Willis.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Pretty serious competition, but this is in good shape. Bad reviews will not keep away the first wave of fans. After that, though... $20mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This is the sort of thing that would get a screenplay nod...if it got good reviews.
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THE AURA
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Taxidermist kills a guy, plans the perfect crime.
WILL IT SUCK?
Sadly, writer/director Fabian Bielinsky died in June of a heart attack at the age of 47. It looks like his last film, though, is living up to the promise of his first one, the outstanding Nine Queens. It nearly swept the Argentinian Film Critics Association Awards and has done well at numerous fests.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Pretty serious competition and nobody really knows about this flick. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
In spite of all those wins, Argentina has decided to back another horse for its Best Foreign Film submission - Daniel Burman's Family Law.
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CANDY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Heath Ledger and Abbie Cornish - lovin' each other, lovin' heroin, 24-7.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Ledger and Cornish are supposed to be fantastic, however.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Druggie movies tend to need hellabuzz (like Trainspotting or Requiem for a Dream buzz) before audiences are willing to commit to the downward spiral. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
With maybe ten times the box office, Ledger and Cornish get some love.
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BOBBY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Huge cast. Oh, and I think there's something about the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy in there somewhere.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, especially considering early warning sirens coming out of Toronto. Contrast that with a seven minute standing O at its Venice premiere. The real story here, though, is the unbelievably huge cast which is easier to link to, but more fun to list:
Harry Belafonte, Nick Cannon, Emilio Estevez (who write and directs for the first time since Men at Work, but we'll let that go), Laurence Fishburne, Heather Graham, Anthony Hopkins, Helen Hunt, Joshua Jackson, Ashton Kutcher, Shia LeBeouf, Lindsay Lohan, William H. Macy, Demi Moore, Freddy Rodriguez, Martin Sheen, Christian Slater, Sharon Stone, Elijah Wood and David Krumholtz.
And somehow Hugh Jackman didn't make it in.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Pretty serious contender. May win this crowded indie weekend, and perhaps the indie month. $30mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think this will build momentum and become a serious contender there, too.
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FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Best in Show crowd take on the Oscars.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, but not as good as any of the other Christopher Guest masterpieces. Still, it'll be pretty hard to keep me from seeing what happens when you add Ricky Gervais to that mix.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Needs more publicity. All the following in the world won't do much good if the Guest fan base doesn't know it's coming out. $18mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That irony would be too rich. So, no.
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11/22
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DEJA VU
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A-List Timecop
WILL IT SUCK?
They've taken one of the writers of Shrek and The Pirates of the Caribbean series and teamed him with a guy who used to write for Courage the Cowardly Dog (which, if you've never watched it, is a funny fuckin' show). That gives me hope. I lost all faith in director Tony Scott, however, after Domino, but maybe Denzel will tip the scale in the other direction.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Casino Royale's second frame is a bit of an issue, but this will open. $68mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Best Cheap Gimmick at the Beginning of a Trailer.
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THE FOUNTAIN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Darren Aronofsky follows two lovers (Hugh Jackman and Rachel Weisz) through three different epochs as one tries to save the other's life.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed with audiences taking to it more than critics. However, everyone seems to agree that this is an awesome flick to get baked to.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
People have been waiting for this for a long time. $34mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The stoner vote doesn't usually carry much weight in the Academy. Technical awards aren't out of the question, though.
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TENACIOUS D IN THE PICK OF DESTINY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
It's Tenacious D. Who cares what they're doing? It'll be funny.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz, what little of it there is, is good. They've chosen perennial D director Liam Lynch to helm this one (he has a kick-ass vlog, btw) and written the material themselves so, if you like Tenacious D (and why shouldn't you?), you'll probably like this.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think this will be the surprise hit of the fall. $72mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but I hope they present.
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DECK THE HALLS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Matthew Broderick and Danny DeVito compete over who has the best Christmas decorations. Seriously, that's it.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Big Momma's House 2...okay, I'm just going to stop right there.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Could end up being this Christmas' Surviving Christmas. $22mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but Jorge Garcia and Alia Shawkat should get to present to make up for having to be in this thing.
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THE HISTORY BOYS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Tony Award-winning Dead Poets Society
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. They've kept the same director, same writer and most of the same cast as the stage play. By the way, the last time this particular writing/directing team got together, the result was The Madness of King George.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Coming out of a busy indie weekend, but the bigger issue is I'm not even sure that fans of play know this is coming out, much less newbies. $5mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Did I mention that The Madness of King George got four nods and one win?
Next Month: Eddie Murphy goes into the "WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?" section.