WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I doubt the Academy will praise anything that brings day-and-date that much closer to reality.

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3 NEEDLES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Babel with AIDS.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, with audiences liking it way more than critics. From writer/director Thom Fitzgerald, whose last feature, The Event, also dealt with AIDS via a slew of A-list indie actresses like Parker Posey and Sarah Polley. This time out it's Chloe Sevigny and Sandrah Oh.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much competition, but not much awareness, either. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
With a better critical reception, maybe. Sevigny is certainly overdue.

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TWO WEEKS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Four siblings get stuck together when they arrive to say goodbye to their ailing mother. Guess for how long.

WILL IT SUCK?
Sally Field plays the dying mom. Tom Cavanaugh is one of ths siblings. Early buzz is actually very good, albeit from a small sample size.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
My guess is, people will stay home and get their Sally Field fix on Brothers & Sisters. $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think that's what the filmmakers are counting on with a very limited L.A. release in December, but Oscar campaigns take marketing dough this film doesn't seem to have.

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December 8
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THE HOLIDAY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Holidayee...doo doo doo...Celebrayeet....doo doo doo.... Sorry. Kate Winslet and Cameron Diaz switch homes and meet cute with Jack Black and Jude Law respectively. Just one day out of life...hol - uh - daaay!

WILL IT SUCK?
Let me tell you about writer/director Nancy Meyers. She takes premises that are tired (guy can read women's thoughts, guy is getting old) and turns them into What Women Want and Somthing's Gotta Give, movies I would never see in a million years except they don't suck. She's like the Gary Ross of chick flicks.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Pursuit of Happyness might be a little bit of an issue the following weekend, but otherwise there's very little competition for this demo, and Meyers is also known for bringing home the bacon. $72mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Something's Gotta Give proved that's not out of the question.

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APOCALYPTO

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy who for some reason does not want to be a Mayan sacrifice goes on the run.

WILL IT SUCK?
If Peter Travers can look past Mel Gibson's anti-Semitic and mysogynystic tirade to judge the film on its own merits, can't we all? Early buzz is good, and paints this as more of a straight-up actioner than anything else. And Mel can bring the mad directorial eye when he wants to. I just wish going to see this didn't make me feel a little dirty.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Epic competish from Eragon the following week, and dramatic from Happyness. Not to mention the church vote that was so essential to Passion's success will be drawn to the second frame of Nativity. Still, the powers that be continue to market this as Mel Gibson's Apocalypto, which means that either (a) they're counting on people to forget about the "sugartits" and the "Jews starting every war" thing or (b) they're counting on people who approve of those comments to get out there and support our Mel. I don't know which is more naive/scary. $50mil. (Full disclosure: I thought The Passion would only make $40mil).

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Well, if Mel's theory is correct, then the Jews probably control Hollywood, too, so, not so much (even though they kind of gave him Best Director and Best Picture ten years ago).

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BLOOD DIAMOND

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like The Pearl, but with, you know, a diamond.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good and again, paints this as a pretty straightforward actioner, in spite of controversy. Ed Zwick is at the helm and I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt, cinematically, at least (Last Samurai, Glory).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will probably win the weekend. $82mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Ever since Zwick directed Denzel to his first Oscar for Glory in 1990, the Academy has run hot and cold on him, giving him no more than a few nods for Last Samurai and rewarding him as a producer (Traffic - nod, Shakespeare in Love - win). So maybe a nod or two at best.

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UNACCOMPANIED MINORS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Airport Alone

WILL IT SUCK?
If I were to describe this cast to you without telling you what the film was about, what would you assume?

Lewis Black, Rob Corddry, Rob Riggle, David Koechner, B.J. Novak, Kevin McDonald, Bruce McCulloch, Mark McKinney, Tony Hale and Cedric Yarbrough. McDonald, McCulloch and McKinney are playing "Guards in the Hall #1, 2 and 3," by the way.

You would assume perhaps, that some sort of film combining the talents of The Office, Arrested Development and The Daily Show among others, was in the works. And I'll even throw in that the director has some Office and Development under his belt. Then I would tell you it was based on a "This American Life" story.

But then you would see this trailer and wonder what the hell is going on.

Still, I am forced to hold out a little more hope than usual for this rare assemblage of talent. Too bad none of them are playing the kids.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will be pummeled by the one-two punch of Eragon and Charlotte's Web the following week. $37mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but there's not a single one of these guys I don't want presenting.

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BREAKING AND ENTERING

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Young Muslim breaks into Jude Law's office. Class/family/romantic drama ensues.

WILL IT SUCK?
Even the positive buzz about this one is tainted. This does not surprise me. Anthony Minghella (The English Patient, The Talented Mr. Ripley, Cold Mountain) is one of those writer/directors for whom I'll see anything even though I really only liked one of his films (Ripley, if you're counting). But even the stuff I don't like I find compelling. Take Cold Mountain, for example. Lop off the last twenty minutes and you have one of the best Civil War films ever made.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Jude Law were still hot (and not opening against himself), much better. $19mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Minghella's last three films have all received Academy love. All of that is going to change.

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December 15
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THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A true-life Horatio Alger story. With a black guy, even!

WILL IT SUCK?
Did you like The Weather Man? That's the writer here. The director did the movie that The Last Kiss was based on, though you probably shouldn't hold that against him. Really, it comes down to Will Smith who, by most accounts, gives a performance that ranks with Ali and Six Degrees of Separation.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
By separating itself from the pack of Oscar hopefuls coming out next week, Happyness has landed itself in the middle of Eragon and Charlotte's Web which, although they don't tap the same demographic, will still draw that demographic by pulling in parents. Once again, it will come down to Will Smith, whose appeal is considerable. $89mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Will's on the Best Actor short list.

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CHARLOTTE'S WEB

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
It's like Babe, but based on a novel you've heard of.

WILL IT SUCK?
All hope is not lost. Director Gary Winick rocked Tadpole and helped make 13 Going on 30 better than it should have been. The writers have work like Chicken Run and In Her Shoes under their belts. The voice talent is pretty impressive. And, let's face it, this is the role Dakota Fanning was born to play. Incidentally, her little sister Ellie, who with Babel has starred in a better film than most of Dakota's career combined, also appears.

Of course, there's Andre Benjamin, who's been in how many good movies so far? Nothing against Outkast, but he's been kind of a post-Moulin Rouge Richard Roxborough kiss of death.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Decent competition from Eragon, and I don't know how many people really want Julia Roberts, Oprah and CGI messing with their childhood favorite. Still, it's freakin' Charlotte's Web. $120mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It's not Babe.

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ERAGON

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dragon Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope

WILL IT SUCK?
I'm starting to get Uwe Boll flashbacks here. He manages to get incredible (for the money) casts for sub-sub-sub-par films. In this case, we've got Jeremy Irons, John Malkovich, Rachel Weisz, Djimon Hounsou and Robert Carlyle in a movie from the writers of Superman IV, Mighty Joe Young and The Beverly Hillbillies.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will the lack of a Potter, LOTR or Narnia flick this holiday season necessitate a trip to any fantasy film? Probably. $104mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Best Slumming?

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ARTHUR AND THE INVISIBLES

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Arthur (Freddie Highmore) has to save his family by becoming shrunk and CGI-ed.

WILL IT SUCK?
A movie written and directed by Luc Besson is something you want to keep an eye on, even if it is a kid's film that looks like it's borrowing equally from Ant Bully and Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius. That having been said, we should also note that this is the first film to star both Madonna and Snoop Dogg (their voices, anyway). Also, Freddie Highmore seems to have a good agent or particularly good taste in films (Finding Neverland, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, A Good Year...well, mostly good taste).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It doesn't have much competition in Indiewood, but that's because kid's films are rarely given a limited release. I'm not sure why they're doing that or whether or not it's a particularly good idea, especially when most art house slots are going to be filled with Oscar hopefuls. $6mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Maybe Best Animated. I gotta admit, looking at the trailer, it's the best animation I've seen since Cars.

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DREAMGIRLS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The story of The Supremes, with names changed to inadequately protect the guilty.

WILL IT SUCK?
Let's talk about writer/director Bill Condon. He adapted Chicago and wrote and directed Kinsey and Gods and Monsters. He knows what he's doing. Then we've got Beyonce, Eddie Murphy, Jamie Foxx and Jennifer Hudson all giving knockout performances according to early buzz. Also, according to early buzz however, it doesn't hold together as a film so much as a collection of incredible performances. Like that would stop me.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Starting out with a limited release this weekend before opening wide this Christmas, this is poised to become this years Memoirs of a Geisha only, you know, better. $85mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Beginning with mad buzz at Cannes, this has gone from The Film to Beat to The Film That's a Little Bit Easier to Beat Than We Thought. Still, get used to the phrase Academy Award Nominee Eddie Murphy and prepare for Jennifer Hudson to become the first American Idol contestant to garner a nod.

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HOME OF THE BRAVE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sam Jackson, Jessica Biehl and Fiddy Cent do The Best Years of Our Lives thing with the Iraq War.

WILL IT SUCK?
There's nothing here that screams out quality, exactly, though director Irwin Winkler's Life as a House was supposed to be pretty good. The rest of the cast is pretty WB-riffic with Sam Jones III and Chad Michael Murray on board. And do we need another war film with "The Space Between" in the trailer?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sam could be a good draw here (Jackson, not Jones, although a lot of us do miss Pete on Smallville). $35mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If I thought this was going to be a weightier film, I'd say yes. But the vibe I'm getting right now is very Movie of the Week.

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THE GOOD GERMAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Steven Soderbergh's Casablanca.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed with critics a little more on board than audiences, who rank it as one of Soderbergh's worst, which is surprising since screenwriter Paul Attanasio (Quiz Show, Donnie Brasco) is on board.

Oh, and let's get this out of the way right now. There's also a movie called The Good Shepherd coming out this month. So let's say it all together. The movie we're most looking foward to this winter is...The Good German Shepherd.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Since when have middling reviews stopped Clooney? $31mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If it's really only the Soderbergh faithful who are disappointed, Clooney could be up for a nod.

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December 22
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ROCKY BALBOA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Rocky vs. Predator. Just kidding, he's fighting some random black guy again.

WILL IT SUCK?
Let's do the math. Each Rocky film has grown consistently worse. All of them were written by one Sylvester Stallone. The middle three were directed by him as well. At best that gives us Rocky Balboa, written and directed by Sly, as turning out somewhat better than Rocky V.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Here's the sad part, above and beyond the kitsch factor, I think there's a huge segment who genuinely wants to see Rocky get back in the ring. $79mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think it's safe to say Sly's wrung all the Oscars he's gonna get out of this character.

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THE GOOD SHEPHERD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The CIA Begins. Yeah, I gotta quit that bit.

WILL IT SUCK?
I haven't seen DeNiro's previous directorial effort, A Bronx Tale, but I hear good things. Screenwriter Eric Roth knows how to deliver the psychological trauma resulting from a life in black ops, also known as Munich. And having Matt Damon in your film is just a good idea in general.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much competition, but not much awareness, either. $59mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I don't think DeNiro, Roth or Damon are out of the question.

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NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy gets trapped in a museum where the exhibits come to life.

WILL IT SUCK?
I'd be more psyched if it weren't from the director of The Pink Panther, Just Married and Big Fat Liar and the writers behind Taxi, Let's Go to Prison and Herbie: Fully Loaded.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The only really fun movie coming out at Christmastime. $107mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This is Ricky Gervais' second supporting role this fall, so maybe he'll get to present?

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WE ARE MARSHALL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The true story of the Marshall University football team, rebuilt after nearly the entire team perished in a plane crash in 1970.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, in spite of the fact that it's directed by McG.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Rocky Balboa is going to be an issue. $49mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If it weren't McG, I'd say maybe.

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BLACK CHRISTMAS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A group of African Americans enjoy a nice holiday celebration at home. Oh, all right. It's a remake of a slasher film where some guy goes all psycho at Christmas. There are no black people anywhere.

WILL IT SUCK?
I have to admit, they've thrown a lot more at this than you'd expect. You've got Glen Morgan, who's a cut above (tee hee) most horror directors, and you've got Ronald D. Moore (Battlestar Galactica) co-writing the script. Plus, you've got a who's who of up-and-coming young B-listers on board, with Michelle Trachtenberg, Lacey Chabert, Katie Cassidy and Mary Elizabeth Winstead as slasher fodder.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not so much with the horror films at Christmas, Silent Night, Deadly Night aside. $17mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That "slay ride" line in the trailer should win some kind of award.

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CHILDREN OF MEN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In this dystopian future, men are shooting blanks, and the human population is dipping. Then (sound of record scratching) a woman gets pregnant.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, placing this as better than director Alfonso Cuaron's previous efforts Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban and Y Tu Mama Tambien.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even with release dates for this weekend's films spread out between the 20th, 22nd and 25th, it's still way too crowded for this to get noticed. $37mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It's not out of the question, though sci-fi rarely gets Academy love.

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LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Flags of Our Fathers from the point of view of the Japanese.

WILL IT SUCK?
First off, Flags rocked, don't let anyone tell you different. There's plenty there to be seen from the other side, and the fact that Eastwood's willing to go there is brilliant in and of itself.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
An extremely crowded field, and if the story from the point of view of the Americans couldn't get any traction, how well will this fare? $13mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That's the idea. I think. I'm actually not sure what the strategy is here. This was originally supposed to come out in February.

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VENUS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Peter O'Toole strikes up a friendship with a much, much younger woman.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is extremely good. Peter, it appears, still gots it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The good buzz might help, but a huge indie gross is a long shot. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
O'Toole's on the short list for Best Actor.

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CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Family dispute grows into all out war in this latest Chinese epic from Yimou Zhang.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not good, which is surprising considering that Zhang has turned himself into a master of this genre, and is working with Gong Li for the first time since Shanghai Triad and has Chow Yun Fat, to boot.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Zhang's efforts have seen diminishing returns since Hero. $6mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Bad reviews or no, China has submitted it for the Best Foreign Film Oscar.

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THE PAINTED VEIL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ed Norton drags his cheating wife into cholera-infested China. That's how they did things in the 20's.

WILL IT SUCK?
Man, filmmakers do love them some W. Somerset Maugham. Of Human Bondage has been done about three times, The Razor's Edge twice and this will be the second Veil after the 1934 version with Garbo. Naomi Watts takes over here along with Norton and Liev Schreiber, so I'm not complaining about the cast. Script is from the guy who penned Philadelphia and directed by the guy who helmed We Don't Live Here Anymore (which was quickly forgotten given how sharp the cast was).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Warner Independent really has to ramp up the campaign to be heard above the din. $10mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Same as the answer to HOW WELL WILL IT DO?

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December 29
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PAN'S LABRYNTH

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Little girl discovers a magical world in the middle of the Spanish Civil War.

WILL IT SUCK?
Considered by many to be writer/director Guillermo del Toro's best work, this will probably end up on a lot of critic's ten best lists.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Leslie Vernon will actually be a bit of an issue the following week, but this could end up being a modest hit for del Toro. $9mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
In spite of the critical love, this will probably be a bit too out there for most Academy folk.

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PERFUME: THE STORY OF A MURDERER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Crazy 18th Century dude starts turning chicks into perfume.

WILL IT SUCK?
Haven't been keeping up much with writer/director Tom Tykwer since Run Lola Run, but it looks like he's struck gold here co-writing with Downfall scribe Bernd Eichinger and throwing Dustin Hoffman and Alan Rickman into the supporting cast. Early buzz is very encouraging.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, there's a whole other serial killer to deal with when Vernon appears the following week, but this at least has a couple of knowns in the cast. $3mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Don't think it'll make it onto the radar.

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FACTORY GIRL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The story of Andy Warhol's muse, Edie Sedgwick (Sienna Miller).

WILL IT SUCK?
Guy Pearce plays Warhol and Hayden Christensen plays, um, some other guy. This is from documentarian George "Hearts of Darkness" Hickenlooper, so it'll be interesting to see what he does with a bio-pic. One of the screenwriters is a bio-pic vet, having written Wonderland.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Needs more buzz. $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Waaay outside chance for Miller. Slightly better chance for Pearce in the showier role.

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NOTES ON A SCANDAL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Battle of wills between teachers Judi Dench and Cate Blanchette, the latter of whom has had an affair with a student.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is meh, but no one doubts that Dench and Blanchette own this thing.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In a crowded season, this has two of the hottest indie names. $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If it does better than I think, you could be looking at Blanchette, Dench and an adaptation nod for screenwriter Patrick Marber (Closer).

Next Month: Everything that came out this month, just in wide release.

— Dave Thomas