by Dave Thomas

Factory Girl
By the looks of things, February is going to be a great month to catch up on new episodes of Lost, Heroes and 24.
February 2
THE MESSENGERS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like The Grudge except, um...okay, it pretty much looks like The Grudge.
WILL IT SUCK?
Directed by the guys who did The Eye, but there's no evidence that that's going to help. But, hey, Cancer Man's up in here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will be wiped out by Hannibal the following week. $16mil.
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BECAUSE I SAID SO
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The synopsis says it's about trying to set up Mandy Moore's character with a beau, but the trailer makes it look like it's all about setting up the mom (Diane Keaton) with that guy from 7th Heaven.
WILL IT SUCK?
It's been 20 years since Heathers, and we're still no closer to director Michael Lehman repeating that glory (in spite of best. film. ever. Hudson Hawk). I don't think the writers of Stepmom are going to help much. But hey, anything that gives Tony Hale work.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Catch and Release's underwhelming opening means it won't be in Because's way. $31mil.
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FACTORY GIRL
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The story of Andy Warhol's muse, Edie Sedgwick (Sienna Miller).
WILL IT SUCK?
Guy Pearce plays Warhol and Hayden Christensen plays, um, some other guy. This is from documentarian George "Hearts of Darkness" Hickenlooper, so it'll be interesting to see what he does with a bio-pic. One of the screenwriters is a bio-pic vet, having written Wonderland. Unfortunately, like Wonderland, early buzz is not good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A delayed release distancing it from the Awards-heavy December indie scene might help a little, but bad reviews might take all that advantage away. $2mil.
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AN UNREASONABLE MAN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An Inconvenient Nader
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is impressive, especially given the two-and-a-half-hour run time.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The film's biggest hurdle is anti-Nader sentiment or, worse, disinterest. $500,000.
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February 9
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HANNIBAL RISING
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hannibal Begins
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and I'll admit that I actually liked Hannibal. However, the novel has been pretty derided and Thomas Harris is writing the screenplay as well.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real competition, but can a Hannibal film work without a name cast? $40mil.
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NORBIT
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Eddie Murphy dresses up in a lot of funny costumes.
WILL IT SUCK?
The world really needed someone to team the director of Good Burger with the writing team behind I Spy, National Security and Serving Sara.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Tyler Perry will bring a little bit of game the following week, but not nearly enough. $76mil.
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BREAKING AND ENTERING
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Young Muslim breaks into Jude Law's office. Class/family/romantic drama ensues.
WILL IT SUCK?
Even the positive buzz about this one is tainted. This does not surprise me. Anthony Minghella (The English Patient, The Talented Mr. Ripley, Cold Mountain) is one of those writer/directors for whom I'll see anything even though I really only liked one of his films (Ripley, if you're counting). But even the stuff I don't like I find compelling. Take Cold Mountain, for example. Lop off the last twenty minutes and you have one of the best Civil War films ever made. Overall, the buzz on this one is not good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Jude Law were still hot, much better. The delayed (and downgraded from wide) release from December will not help. $8mil.
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THE LIVES OF OTHERS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
German The Conversation
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is extreeemely good. Nominated for a Best Foreign Film Oscar which, if it wins, can go on the shelf with, like, thirty other awards it's already won.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If it wins the Oscar, that will help. But that's a long shot. $6mil.
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February 16
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GHOST RIDER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bitchinest tattoo ever becomes a superhero.
WILL IT SUCK?
Did you like Daredevil? Same writer/director.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Fanboys will not be denied. $93mil.
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BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Chronicles of Terabithia
WILL IT SUCK?
Here's the best bit of Terabithia trivia. The director (Gabor Csupo) was apparently the inspiration for the look and voice of Dr. Nick Riviera on The Simpsons, for which he was a writer at the time. Anyhoo, this is based on a Newberry Award-winning book and one of the screenwriters worked on The Dangerous Lives of Altar Boys so I'd say this has a shot at not sucking, in spite of smacking of Narnia-baiting.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real competition, but Walden/Disney needs to dial up the ad campaign if they want to turn this into a blockbuster. $71mil.
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BREACH
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Robert Hanssen story.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is from Shattered Glass writer/director Billy Ray, who should be familiar with profiles in duplicity. Casting is excellent, with Chris Cooper as Hanssen and Ryan Phillipe as the agent tasked with bringing him down. Dennis Haysbert, Laura Linney and Gary Cole are thrown in for good measure. As if that weren't enough, Tak Fujimoto (everything from Sixth Sense to Ferris Bueller's Day Off) is doing the cinematography.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's a crowded field, and this is being advertised about as well as Shattered Glass was. $11mil.
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TYLER PERRY'S DADDY'S LITTLE GIRLS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A Tyler Perry flick without all the cross-dressing.
WILL IT SUCK?
If you like the Tyler Perry, this looks to be right in line with his other work, although this is the first of his films that didn't start out as a play.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Norbit's a bit of an issue, but there's no reason to believe this won't do just as well as any other Perry flick. $64mil.
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MUSIC & LYRICS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Hugh Grant and Drew Barrymore try to write a hit and break the one rule of songwriting - don't fall in love. Or, don't write death metal in a major key. One of those.
WILL IT SUCK?
Am I the only one who thought Music and Lyrics by... was a better title? Anyhoo, this is from the writer/director of Two Weeks Notice (which should be Two Weeks' Notice, dammit!), who also wrote the Miss Congeneality movies and Forces of Nature, so I'm going to try to not let the funny trailer get my hopes up.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Surprisingly, this doesn't seem to be getting much awareness in spite of heavy marketing. Still, the Valentine's Day opening should help. $43mil.
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DAYS OF GLORY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Basically one long guilt trip for the French. North Africans help liberate the French during WWII and then proceed to be shat upon by the country they just liberated. Oh, those wacky French!
WILL IT SUCK?
What is it with movies about injustices in the French army and "..of Glory"? Follows Paths of Glory and precedes Ungrateful French Bastards of Glory, one imagines. Early buzz is great. Again, a contender for Best Foreign. Also won an acting ensemble award at Cannes.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Lives of Others has the better shot at an Oscar, but both will probably lose to Pan's Labyrinth. Either way, not much to pump up receipts. $1mil.
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CLOSE TO HOME
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Two female Israeli soldiers befriend each other.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Did well on the festival circuit.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not a good time of year to be a foreign film without an Oscar nod. $100,000.
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THE LAST SIN EATER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Appalachian community in the 1850's gets saved.
WILL IT SUCK?
Don't usually go in for these Christian-themed flicks (this comes from the new Fox/Faith studio brand), which is strange since I'm, you know, Christian. This is directed by Michale Landon's son, who's been making Christian films for a while now, and stars Henry Thomas and Louise "Where's she been since Cuckoo's Nest?" Fletcher.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
At this point, the Christian film industry has developed tiers. I'm guessing this will fall into the "will do better on DVD" tier. $1mil.
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February 23
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THE NUMBER 23
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Jim Carrey gets obsessed with the number 23. Goes nuts.
WILL IT SUCK?
Carrey's pretty versatile, so I feel he can pull off a thriller, no prob. Joel Schumacher, on the other hand, makes about one good film a decade, and he's already done his for the 2000's (Tigerland). Danny Huston and Virginia Madsen should make for a good supporting cast, at least.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Zodiac will be a bit of an issue the following week, but this won't lack for revenue. Besides, it's coming out on February 23rd. Who can resist that synergy? $47mil.
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RENO 911!: MIAMI
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Title pretty much says it all.
WILL IT SUCK?
Never seen Reno 911!, but I hear good things. That having been said, the TV writers behind the show have shown some general suck when writing movies (The Pacifier, Night at the Museum, Herbie: Fully Loaded).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Show has a decent enough following. $20mil.
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BLACK SNAKE MOAN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sam Jackson chains up Christina Ricci in his shack. Yeah, I know what you're thinking. About fucking time.
WILL IT SUCK?
It's kind of hard to tell just how seriously writer/director Craig Brewer (Hustle & Flow) wants us to take his latest opus. There's the over-the-top grindhouse style posters, the tounge-in-cheek trailer, the fact that the Web site is a MySpace page (a tactic usually reserved for a teen-friendly Step Up or Turistas) oh, and it's about a guy who chains up a woman to cure her of her nymphomania/drug addiction (and, to play the race card, a black man chaining up a white woman in...wait for it...the deep South).
That having been said, the early buzz is mixed, with critics suggesting that if you can get past the premise, it's quite entertaining (which, arguably, could be said of Hustle & Flow).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not exactly a date movie. $23mil.
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THE ASTRONAUT FARMER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Farmer decides to build a manned rocket in his backyard.
WILL IT SUCK?
In spite of a silly title and even sillier poster, the early buzz is good and why not, you've got the Polish brothers writing and directing, a solid cast with Billy Bob Thornton, Virginia Madsen and J.K. Simmons and a premise that worked well for October Sky.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Crowded weekend. $18mil.
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THE ABANDONNED
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman travels to a remote village and unlocks deadly secrets from her past blah, blah, blah. No more evil ghosts! I mean it. Just a one month hiatus is all I ask.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. One of the writers directed and co-wrote the cult classic Hardware.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think folks are going to be all horror'd out. $2mil.
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AMAZING GRACE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Story of the abolition movement in England.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed with audiences more on board than critics. Michael Apted stays busy, directing what is, on IMDB at least, his best film other than his 7 Up series while Dirty Pretty Things scribe Steven Knight contributes the screenplay. Supporting cast is solid, with Albert Finney as the man who actually wrote "Amazing Grace" and Michael Gambon and Ciaran Hinds as your requisite bad guys. Also along for the ride is Youssou N'Dour, whom you may remember from such Peter Gabriel albums as So or from, you know, his massively successful recording career in Africa.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Walden Media knows what it's doing. $8mil.
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GLASTONBURY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc about the most famous music festival you've never heard of.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good, and you could do worse than to have David Bowie, James Brown, Bjork and Joe Strummer on the ticket. Directed by music video helmer Julien Temple, who also has Joe Strummer: The Future Is Unwritten coming out this year.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even if people in the States had heard of this festival, music docs are a hard sell. $500,000.
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GRAY MATTERS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Brother and sister fall for the same woman.
WILL IT SUCK?
Halfway-decent cast (Heather Graham and Tom Cavanaugh are the brother and sister, Bridget Moynahan is the love interest and Alan Cumming and Molly Shannon are the wacky best friends), interesting premise and sucky, sucky trailer. Early buzz is actually pretty good, though.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I would have actually gone with a wide release on this one. This low under the radar, it doesn't stand a chance. $1mil.
Next Month: It'll be time to go back to the movies again with the return of David Fincher, the movie behind the best trailer of the year and the best horror film of last year.
Dave Thomas