WILL IT SUCK?
In spite of a cheesy-ass trailer and multiple delays, I have high hopes for this one. Curtis Hanson can spin just about anything into gold, and screenwriter Eric Roth (Munich) has more hits than misses.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little bit of competition from Georgia Rule next week and there’s some movie about a spider this week that might get more attention. $23mil.

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WAITRESS

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kerri Russell plays the waitress in question, trying to escape an unfulfilling life with the help of her doctor (Nathan Fillion).

WILL IT SUCK?
Not at all. Great comedy. More here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
More buzz couldn’t hurt. $4mil.

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AWAY FROM HER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy puts his wife in a home cos’ she’s getting Alzheimer’s. She proceeds to forget him and fall for someone else. How much does that suck?

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is even better than Waitress. The feature-length writing/directing debut of indie darling Sarah Polley.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
About as well as Waitress, I imagine. $4mil.

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PARIS JE T’AIME

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
20 filmmakers make movies about Paris.

WILL IT SUCK?
Even the people who like it say it’s uneven, but the general buzz is still good. Directors include Olivier Assayas, Gurinder Chadha, the Coen brothers, Wes Craven, Alfonso Cuaron, Gerard Depardieu, Christopher Doyle, Richard LaGravenese, Alexander Payne, Walter Salles, Tom Twyker and Gus Van Sant. Actors include Steve Buscemi, Catalina Sandino Moreno, Miranda Richardson, Juliette Binoche, Willem Dafoe, Nick Nolte, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Bob Hoskins, Elijah Wood, Emily Mortimer, Rufus Sewell, Natalie Portman, Gerard Depardieu, Alexander Payne, Ben Gazzara and Wes Craven.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The individual directors will draw on their core followings, but it won’t be enough to overcome an extraordinarily crowded weekend. $1mil.

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CIVIC DUTY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A post-9/11 Arlington Road.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and with Peter Krause and Richard Schiff on board, why not?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Hugely crowded field. $500,000.

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THE FLYING SCOTSMAN

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The World’s Fastest Schwinn

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Decent cast, tho: Johnny Lee Miller, Billy Boyd and Brian Cox.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Indie sports flicks are a hard enough sell when they’re not surrounded by fifty other art house releases. $2mil.

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THE TREATMENT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy from those Whit Stillman films gets therapy.

WILL IT SUCK?
Hard to say. Though Chris Eigelman as a neurotic New Yorker shouldn’t be a hard sell. Ian Holm, Roger Rees and Harris Yulin are also up in here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nobody knows about this. $750,000.

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May 11
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28 WEEKS LATER

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
More zombies.

WILL IT SUCK?
I’d have a lot more confidence if they’d kept Danny Boyle on, not to mention Cillian Murphy (both are in Sunshine, however) but you could do worse than to have the writer/director of Intacto at the helm. I like Robert Carlyle (and keep an eye out for Lost‘s Harold Perrineau, who apparently sailed that boat all the way to London), but I just don’t know how much more story there is left to this premise.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The best it can hope for is bridesmaid to Spidey‘s second frame. $46mil.

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GEORGIA RULE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
It’s Lindsay Lohan! And she’s wearing panties!

WILL IT SUCK?
So, is Hector Elizondo required by law to be in every Gary Marshall film? From the writer of As Good as It Gets, so I guess it’s got a shot.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As a rule, chick flick counterprogramming usually works. With all the heat on Lohan (and a fair amount of Jane Fonda/Felicity Huffman fans out there) that could hold true again. $40mil.

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DELTA FARCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Three Rednecks

WILL IT SUCK?
This has Danny Trejo playing a character named Carlos Santana. I may have to watch this. No. Will suck about as bad as any Blue Collar Comedy Tour flick, of which this director has helmed his share.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Larry the Cable Guy couldn’t get them to come out for Health Inspector, I don’t see this faring much better. $30mil.

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THE FLOCK

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Richard Gere and Clare Danes try to track down a sex offender.

WILL IT SUCK?
The english-language debut of Infernal Affairs/Initial D helmer Wai Keung Lau. Wish he’d picked a script that wasn’t by writers from Komodo/Anaconda. Surprised this isn’t just called Perv.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given that they still don’t have a Web site or trailer, it’s no shock no one knows this is coming out. $2mil.

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HOME OF THE BRAVE

(Delayed from December)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sam Jackson, Jessica Biel and Fiddy Cent do The Best Years of Our Lives: Iraq War Edition.

WILL IT SUCK?
There’s nothing here that screams out quality, exactly, though director Irwin Winkler’s Life as a House was supposed to be pretty good. The rest of the cast is pretty WB-riffic with Sam Jones III and Chad Michael Murray on board. And do we need another war film with “The Space Between” in the trailer? Early buzz is awful. Plus, I think this came out already.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is the second time this has come out, and still no one knows about it. $6mil.

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BLIND DATING

(Delayed from March)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The 20-Year-Old Blind Virgin

WILL IT SUCK?
This is the kind of movie you wish were directed by the Farrelly brothers. Early buzz is good, though the trailer looks awful.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Indie romantic comedies are hard to pull off without stars. And no, Eddie Kaye Thomas does not count. $500,000.

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DAY NIGHT DAY NIGHT

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Maria Full of Bomb

WILL IT SUCK?
A very disturbing, matter-of-fact look at 48 hours in the life of a suicide bomber. More here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is what we call a "hard sell." $500,000.

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MAY 18
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SHREK THE THIRD

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Shrek tries to avoid becoming king.

WILL IT SUCK?
Andrew Adamson, who did such a good job co-directing the first two, is only executive producing here. Newcomers Chris Miller and Raman Hui are large and in charge now, with some Shrek 2 writers returning and the scribes behind Who Framed Roger Rabbit (and a lot of crap since) joining the team. I’d feel more comfortable with more of the old guard.

Still, decent enough casting with Eric Idle as Merlin (you have to appreciate that given the King Arthur bent the tale is taking), John Krasinski as Lancelot, Ian McShane as Captain Hook, Seth Rogen as some random supporting character and Amy Poehler, Amy Sedaris and Maya Rudolph as Cinderella, Snow White and Rapunzel, respectively.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This would do so much better if Pirates weren’t coming out the very next week. On the other hand, this skews broader, if only by a few years on the younger end. If this were to make proportioinally as much more than Shrek 2 as Shrek 2 did than Shrek, it would make $710mil., making it by far the highest-grossing film of all time. (Keep in mind, Shrek 2 is already the third highest-grossing film of all time.) I’m going to err on the side of caution, though, and just say $450mil.

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CAPTIVITY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Model and her chauffeur fall in love while being terrorized by a serial killer. Awww.

WILL IT SUCK?
Did you know that the guy who directed The Killing Fields also directed (uncredited) Super Mario Bros? Well, he directed this, too with a script co-written by Maniac Cop schlockmeister Larry Cohen. Early buzz has this as a lame Saw rip-off.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Note how the trailer tries to spin that whole ad fiasco into some sort of hardcore cred. Might work until people actually see the film and realize it’s much ado about crap. $8mil.

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SEVERANCE

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Office thrown into the woods with a bunch of crazed ex-soldiers.

WILL IT SUCK?
The funniest horror movie since Scream. Read on.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’m not sure anyone knows this is coming out. $2mil.

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FAY GRIM

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sequel to Henry Fool.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Probably good for any Hal Hartley fan.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has to deal with The Wendell Baker Story, a simultaneous release on HDNet (and on DVD a few days later) and Lars Von Trier the following week; no to mention Hartley’s dedicated, but small, following. $2mil.

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THE WENDELL BAKER STORY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Luke Wilson as a paroled con working in a retirement home run by an evil Owen Wilson.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. It concerns me that it took this long to find distribution. I remember it screening at SXSW two years ago. Still, it’ll be interesting to see what an all-Wilson effort can achieve; brother Andrew co-directs with Luke, who wrote the screenplay.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The marketing for this is weird. They’re pitching it like an all-Wilson Dukes of Hazzard. Not sure how that will play with an indie crowd, who are not looking for the next You, Me and Dupree. Still, you’re talking about the most marketable casting of any indie this weekend. $7mil.

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EVEN MONEY

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ensemble piece about gambling addiction.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty bad. Interesting cast, though: Forest Whitaker (probably the sole reason this is getting a release), Nick Cannon, Tim Roth, Jay Mohr, Kim Basinger, Danny DeVito, Kelsey Grammer, Ray Liotta and Carla Gugino. From the director of On Golden Pond and...um...For the Boys.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Might make it to DVD even faster than Fay Grim. $1mil.

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May 25
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PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD’S END

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Pirates vs. Dutch East India Co.

WILL IT SUCK?
It’s a simple enough maxim: Dance with the one that brought ya. This franchise has stuck with Gore Verbinski at the helm and Terry Rossio & Ted Elliot (Both in the first Shrek writing pool, btw) for all three. Chances are, this will be just as good as the first two (yes, I liked the sequel). Adding Keith Richards and Chow Yun-Fat to the mix should be fun, and bringing back Geoffrey Rush probably won’t hurt, either.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, if we calculate the improvement in performance of the sequel (now the sixth-highest-grossing film of all time) to the original, the next step proportionally is $583mil. Again, I’m going to wuss out on that prediction. $437mil. If I’m right, Shrek 3 and Pirates 3 will become the 3rd and 4th highest-grossing films of all time.

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BUG

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
I’ve got bugs crawling under my skin, man!

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed - some consider this to be William Friedkin’s third best film after The Exorcist and The French Connection, others are less impressed. Interesting, though, to see a horror film adapted from a stage play.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real horror competition, but Lionsgate has got to bump up the ad campaign. $16mil.

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ANGEL-A

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Touched by a Really Hot French Angel

WILL IT SUCK?
Buzz has it that like most post-Professional Luc Besson, it looks beautiful but is as cheesy as hell.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
People want action from Besson and they’ll get it - from Timur Bekmambetov’s Daywatch the following week. $2mil.

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PAPRIKA

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Anime Dreamscape.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Writer/director Satoshi Kan has scored before with Tokyo Godfathers and the transcedent Millenium Actress, one of the few animes I’ve actually understood.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Unless your name is Miyazaki, your anime is gonna have trouble getting traction in the States. $750,000.

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THE BOSS OF IT ALL

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy hires an actor to pretend to be the president of a company.

WILL IT SUCK?
Comedy has a new name and it is - Lars Von Trier. Well, this time, anyway. Read more.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Last time Von Trier tried to be funny, it didn’t turn out so well. $500,000.

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THE GOLDEN DOOR

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Romance on the high seas - an immigrant boat, actually.

WILL IT SUCK?
Cleaned up at Venice. Trailer looks cheesy, though, and a lot of early reviews support that notion.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The fact that they slapped Scorsese’s name on it and got a Tribeca slot might help. $1mil.

Next Month: I wonder what the lesser franchises are doing this summer?
—Dave Thomas