by Dave Thomas

Sicko
Now that we've made our way through The Big Three Part Threes, the B-list franchises get a shot.
June 1
MR. BROOKS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kevin Costner gets his Lecter on.
WILL IT SUCK?
I'll give writer/director Bruce A. Evans the screenplays for Starman and Stand By Me and even, God help me, Kuffs (which he also directed), but since then we've got to talk about the scripts for Jungle 2 Jungle and Cutthroat Island. Still, early buzz is good. And isn't it time we got Dane Cook and William Hurt in a movie together? Keep an eye out for Reiko Aylesworth (Michelle on 24).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will be lucky to come in third to Knocked Up and the second frame of Pirates. $36mil.
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KNOCKED UP
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The lighter side of unplanned parenthood.
WILL IT SUCK?
Probably the best movie I've seen this summer so far (granted it's early). More here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The combination of Hostel II and Ocean's 13 the following weekend might present a bit of a challenge, but this should open well and taper off gently. $100mil.
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GRACIE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Before there was Mia Hamm, there was...Gracie!
WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of An Inconvenient Truth, so if the bulk of the film is Gracie giving a PowerPoint presentation on why women should be allowed to play soccer, this will fucking rock. Early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Very competitive field. Their 17-city tour might help. But probably not. $5mil.
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DAY WATCH
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Fight for the Chalk of Fate. Seriously.
WILL IT SUCK?
Watch this trailer and tell me you don't want to see this movie. I was actually underwhelmed by Night Watch, but still wanted to see the sequel, even before I saw the trailer or the positive buzz.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Like its predecessor, this was a box office record-breaker in its native Russia. Like its predecessor, that probably won't help here. $2mil.
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RISE: BLOOD HUNTER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
I Spit On Your Vampire Crypt
WILL IT SUCK?
Why the trailer says "from the writer of Gothika" instead of "from one of the writers of Snakes on a Plane" is beyond me. That having been said, early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If you're gonna be an indie vampire flick, don't open against Day Watch. $1mil.
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CRAZY LOVE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Would you marry the man who threw acid in your face?
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. This doc was co-directed by Fisher Stevens. How cool is that?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Should be pretty free of competition. $3mil.
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PIERREPOINT: THE LAST HANGMAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Story of the last hangman in Britain.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and if you want to see Peter Pettigrew (Timothy Spall) whack 433 people, there's really no other way.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Does have the advantage of not being about vampires, but that might not be enough to make it stand out. $250,00.
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June 8
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SURF'S UP
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Again with the penguins
WILL IT SUCK?
I actually liked the last two penguin films I saw, so I'm not going to dismiss this one out of hand. And you could do worse than to combine the directors from Toy Story 2 and Tarzan. On the other hand, one of the writers did both Big Momma's Houses, so, there you go.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nancy Drew could be a bit of a problem the following week, and penguins could be played out - but we thought that before Happy Feet, too. $74mil.
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OCEAN'S THIRTEEN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ocean's Twelve made how much now?
WILL IT SUCK?
Steven Soderbergh hasn't made a universally beloved film since Ocean's 11. That's not to say he's not still a great director. And I actually liked Ocean's 12. But I'm in the minority. The writers did Rounders and Runaway Jury, but also did the Walking Tall remake and Knockaround Guys, so it's kind of a wash. Early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I'm anticipating Knocked Up will have a very strong second frame and Silver Surfer will take all comers the following week, but this should still open well. $126mil.
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HOSTEL PART II
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Hostel with women instead of men (including the lead from Welcome to the Dollhouse - man, life just does not get any easier for her).
WILL IT SUCK?
Eli Roth is writing and directing again, so I don't see this being much different from Hostel or Cabin Fever. I do feel it's a little different to have women be the victims in a torture-fest than men, but whether that's just sexist is one issue and whether it's handled well in the film is another. Bottom line: Hostel fans will probably be pleased.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A little bit of demo competition from Silver Surfer next week, but this has nothing to fear. $48mil.
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LA VIE EN ROSE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Edith Piaf biopic.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, but almost all of that credits the lead, Marion Cotillard, over the movie itself.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Picturehouse has to give this a bigger push because there is nothing else like it on the horizon. $500,000.
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June 15
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FANTASTIC FOUR: RISE OF THE SILVER SURFER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Silver Sufer is awesome. Oh, and there are some other people in it, too.
WILL IT SUCK?
They've kept one of the writers from the first flick for some reason and added a Simpsons vet...who also wrote My Super Ex-Girlfriend. Tim "I was great for Barbershop, but not for Taxi or Fantastic Four" Story directs again. And yes, that's Laurence Fishburne as the voice of the Silver Surfer.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Evan Almighty is the littlest of issues next week, but other than that, remember how badly the first one should have done? This one won't do that bad, either. $171mil.
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NANCY DREW
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Before there was Veronica Mars, there was...oh, you get the picture.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the writer/director of Dick...and Threesome, The Craft and Bad Dreams.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Normally, I'd say this would appeal to the tween set, but there are no America Ferrara's or Hillary Duff's to fill the cast (I'm kind of glad they went with a relative unkown for the lead, actually) so, this will fall on the lower-grossing end of counter-Surfer programming. $24mil.
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FIDO
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Like Lassie, but with a zombie.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding. Part of a new zombies-as-a-part-of-society comedy trend that began with the end of Shaun of the Dead and is continuing with American Zombie and the Ed Helms spots on Funnyordie.com.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
More comedy horror the next week in Black Sheep, but I think this will have the edge. $5mil.
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DOA: DEAD OR ALIVE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Really hot Mortal Kombat.
WILL IT SUCK?
Oh my, yes. Even Jamie Pressley says it sucks, and she's the star. But, it's got Corey Yuen directing hot babes in fight sequences that even the critics seem to like. Destined to become a crap classic.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If they play up the crappiness a la Snakes on a Plane, they might do okay. $17mil.
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EAGLE VS. SHARK
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Quirky romcom from New Zealand.
WILL IT SUCK?
Very funny. Napoleon Dynamite comparisons are being made, somewhat fairly, but this really has its own thing going on. Read more.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Don't think this will cross over like Dynamite. $3mil.
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June 22
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1408
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A bunch of Native Americans wait around 84 years for Christopher Columbus to show up. Or John Cusack checks into a haunted hotel room.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, the writers are a mixed bunch, having scripted such fare as Ed Wood and Man on the Moon on one hand and Problem Child and Agent Cody Banks on the other. Director did the acclaimed Evil and the less-than-acclaimed-but-supposedly-better-than-you-might-think Derailed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Opens the same week as Captivity, not that anyone will notice. $52mil.
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EVAN ALMIGHTY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Steve Carell builds an ark.
WILL IT SUCK?
Same writer and director as Bruce Almighty which, to be honest, I found to be surprisingly good. And Carell's been batting pretty well so far. Even Over the Hedge didn't suck (we don't talk about Sleepover).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is rumored to be the most expensive comedy ever made. I think it'll just barely make all its money back domestically, but international and DVD will more than compensate. $229mil.
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A MIGHTY HEART
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Daniel Pearl story.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is fantastic. I would, at first, be ready to label this as Movie-of-the-Week exploitation, but with Michael Winterbottom at the helm, I take pause. He don't mess. And he's made some of the most uncompromising visions of the middle east (and our involvement in it) of the past few years (In This World, Road to Guantanamo). Angelina Jolie doesn't usually sell me on a project, but early buzz on her performance brings up the O-word and I'm curious to see Capote scribe Dan Futterman take on the role of Daniel Pearl.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Might do better as a limited release. How many people are going to walk into a multiplex and conciously choose a tragic story about real-life terrorism over Steve Carell in a long-ass beard? $35mil.
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CAPTIVITY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Model and her chauffeur fall in love while being terrorized by a serial killer. Awww.
WILL IT SUCK?
Did you know that the guy who directed The Killing Fields also directed (uncredited) Super Mario Bros? Well, he directed this, too with a script co-written by Maniac Cop schlockmeister Larry Cohen. Early buzz has this as a lame Saw rip-off.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Note how the trailer tries to spin that whole ad fiasco into some sort of hardcore cred. Might work until people actually see the film and realize it's much ado about crap. $8mil.
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YOU KILL ME
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ben Kingsley does the wacky hit man thing.
WILL IT SUCK?
From Last Seduction, Rounders, Joy Ride director John Dahl, who for some reason has been tapped to direct Punisher 2 (which, for some reason, is happening). From the writers of Narnia. In spite of a cheesy Whole Nine Yards-y trailer, could be good. Early buzz is encouraging.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nobody knows this is coming out. $23mil.
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BLACK SHEEP
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Killer mutant sheep.
WILL IT SUCK?
Wants to be Shaun of the Dead, but really isn't.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Between this weekend and next you have two bigger indies and Fido might steal its comedy/horror thunder to boot. $1mil.
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BROKEN ENGLISH
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Sex and the Parker Posey
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but no one seems particularly psyched about this film. Raves for Posey's perf, however.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Eagle vs. Shark is a bit of a big deal, and so is Sicko the next week. But, this has Parker Posey. $5mil.
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SEPTEMBER DAWN
(Delayed from May)
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Fictionalized account of the Mountain Meadows massacre.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Gone Fishin' and The Next Karate Kid (and no, Young Guns does not make up for those). Those of you wondering what happened to Dean Cain, here you go.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
People are a little more curious about Mormons than, say, before the Presidential campaigns started, but this will still do better on DVD. $500,000.
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6/29
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RATATOUILLE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Rat tries to make good on the culinary circuit in Paris.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is Pixar, son. How many times do I have to tell you? Seven for seven! Plus, it's Brad Bird, writer/director of the greateset Pixar film of all time. Incidentally, I think this is the first Pixar (or maybe even Disney) film to have its own video podcasts.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Releasing in the middle of some heavy hitters. Die Hard 4 has a two day head start (which could help) and the next week, Transformers. But still, Pixar don't fuck around. You release against it at your peril. $195mil.
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LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
John McClaine vs. the Interwebs.
WILL IT SUCK?
What, besides the crappy title? Who watches Underworld and says, "I want THAT guy to direct my franchise comeback!"? Bruce Willis, that's who. And the guy who wrote Godsend wrote the screenplay. If it makes you feel any better, this may be the first film based on a Wired article. That was turned into a script called WW3.com ten years ago by the guy who later write Enemy of the State.
You've also got Justin Long (be awesome if the bad guys used PC's) and Kevin Smith in a cameo. Timothy Olyphant does the bad guy thing fairly well and I'm sure Death Proof cheerleader Mary Elizabeth Winstead will be easy on the eyes as McClaine's daughter (although if you think back to Lucy McClaine in the original Die Hard, that's just creepy). Great trailers, btw.
This is one of those movies that I really want to be good even though there's very little chance that will happen.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You've got back-to-back blockbuster weekends after this, so this has to grab everything it can, while it can. $177mil.
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SICKO
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Michael Moore takes on health care.
WILL IT SUCK?
So far, the only real complaint is that he glamorizes the Canadian health care system too much, and that's coming from Canadians.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
When Fahrenheit 9/11 opened at number one in the summer of 2004, remember its only competition was White Chicks (and it was an election year). This weekend its gotta deal with Pixar and Bruce Willis. $25mil.
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DEATH AT A FUNERAL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy goes to his father's funeral only to find out his dad isn't exactly who he thought he was. In a funny way. It's a comedy.
WILL IT SUCK?
I feel bad for Frank Oz. He goes on a promotional tour for this film he directed, and all anyone wants to talk about is Yoda. Early buzz is good, and Oz can do comedy when he feels like (Dirty Rotten Scoundrels). Also nice to see Peter Dinklage and Alan Tudyk get some screen time.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If all this had to deal with was a comedy with stars in it the following weekend (License to Wed), that would be one thing, but it's in the middle of the blockbuster ocean and nobody even knows it's coming out. Better off as a limited release. $23mil.
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EVENING
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kind of like The Notebook, but with a lot more women.
WILL IT SUCK?
Powerhouse cast here: Clare Danes, Toni Collette, Vanessa Redgrave, Patrick Wilson, Meryl Streep and Glenn Close (together for the first time since - I'll let that be a trivia question for you). Also, Meryl's daughter Mamie Gummer plays young Meryl in flashbacks. From the writer of The Hours which had, like, hardly any women at all, right?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Should do all right. No cast like this anywhere in indieville right now. $11mil.
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VITUS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Coming-of-age story about a child prodigy pianist who wants to be a pilot.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. A chance to see the lighter side of Hitler (um, Downfall's Bruno Ganz).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Kind of crowded, but if it can keep up the good buzz, there's hope. $2mil.
Next Month: Forget about The Transformers, Harry Potter and even The Simpsons. The only movie to look out for is the one that can only be described as Black Caddyshack