HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
May not have Yuma's cast, but will probably collect a following, nonetheless. $36mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Action films don't get Academy love.

-----------------------------------

THE BROTHERS SOLOMON

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
If Dumb and Dumber tried to adopt.

WILL IT SUCK?
I'd say that Bob Odenkirk directing is a good sign if it weren't for Let's Go to Prison. And I have no idea of SNL-er Will Forte can write. The fact that it's Revolution Studios is definitely a bad sign, but the trailer's pretty funny. Good cast - Will Arnett, Will Forte, Kristen Wiig, Jenna Fischer, David Koechner, Chi McBride and Bob Odenkirk, among others.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will have to split the dumb comedy pie with Mr. Woodcock the following week. $15mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If any comedies get love, it'll be Superbad or Knocked Up.

-----------------------------------

HATCHET

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
An attempt to add a new icon to the slasher canon.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. This one's been making its bones on the festival circuit and boasts cameos from Robert Englund, Tony Todd and Joshua Leonard (that's Freddy Kruger, Candyman and um, Josh from Blair Witch). Also, Mercedes McNabb for the Buffy/Angel fans out there.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It'll be hard to get out of the shadow of Halloween. $3mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even if there were an indie horror category, it'd have to take on Leslie Vernon.

-----------------------------------

IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
If you believe, they put a man on the moon.

WILL IT SUCK?
This is an amazing documentary. The moon landing seems like tired territory, but director David Sington breathes new life into it by interviewing exclusively those who actually experienced it firsthand and finding a context that makes it relevant today. More here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's unique enough, but it needs more buzz. $500,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If this can do a little better than I predict, a doc nod is not out of the question.

-----------------------------------

I WANT SOMEONE TO EAT CHEESE WITH

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jeff Garlin and Sarah Silverman do the "hot chick somehow falls for schlubby-lookin' dude" thing.

WILL IT SUCK?
First off, that should be I Want Someone With Whom to Eat Cheese, but whatever. Early buzz is mixed, but if you're a fan of Garlin, Silverman, Bonnie Hunt or Amy Sedaris, you probably want this on your radar.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Better on DVD. $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Jeff who?

-----------------------------------

THE GOOD NIGHT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Martin Freeman dreams about Penelope Cruz, like, a lot.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Nice cast, however: Gwyneth Paltrow (director's sister), Simon Pegg and Michael Gambon are also up in here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Good cast but not nearly enough buzz. $250,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Science of Sleep didn't make it...

-----------------------------------

FIERCE PEOPLE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Anton Yelchin does an anthropological study of the rich and shameless.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good. Not crazy about the fake-y versions of "Under Pressure" and "Bittersweet Symphony" in the trailer, either. Been in the cooker since Tribeca 2005, which may not be a good sign.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Overcrowded weekend. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not with these reviews.

-----------------------------------

THE HUNTING PARTY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Journalists hunt for a war criminal in Bosnia.

WILL IT SUCK?
I liked writer/director Richard Shepard's last effort, The Matador, and this looks to take a similar dark comic look at its subject matter, which is based on a true story. I like Terence Howard, though I haven't really been impressed with most of his post-Hustle choices. And I've been looking forward to seeing what else Jesse Eisenberg can do ever since Squid and the Whale.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Like everything else this weekend, needs more buzz. But Richard Gere's presence might help. $3mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Gere gets a nod for anything this year, it'll be The Hoax.

-----------------------------------

ROMANCE AND CIGARETTES

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Musical about infidelity.

WILL IT SUCK?
The delay in release is not a matter of sucking so much as it is a matter of writer/director John Turturro having to self-distribute because of studio turmoil and legal wrangling. The cast is magnificent: Susan Sarandon, Kate Winslet, Steve Buscemi, Bobby Cannavale, Mary Louise-Parker, Christopher Walken, Eddie Izzard and Amy Sedaris.

That having been said, early buzz is not generous and part of that may be the fact that they sing over the original tunes resulting in what Hollywood Reporter calls "a karaoke nightmare."
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given that "self-distribution" really means, "out-of-pocket screenings at the NY Film Forum," not so good. $5,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even if we could get past the whole self-distribution hurdle, the reviews would have to greatly improve.

-----------------------------------

THE BUBBLE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Gay love affair between an Israeli and a Palestinian in Tel Aviv.

WILL IT SUCK?
It's very good. And surprisingly funny. And unsurprisingly tragic and depressing. Read more.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not so well. Should have picked a less crowded weekend. $250,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I wouldn't mind seeing it get a Best Foreign nod, but I doubt it.

-----------------------------------
September 14
-----------------------------------

EASTERN PROMISES

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Naomi Watts vs. the Russian mob.

WILL IT SUCK?
A crime thriller from the director of A History of Violence and the writer of Dirty Pretty Things with Viggo Mortensen, Naomi Watts, Vincent Cassel and Armin Mueller-Stahl? Sign. Me. The. Fuck. Up.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I'm not sure why they're opening this wide. Director David Cronenberg has a following, but it's an art house following. And Mortensen and Watts, lovely as they are, don't really open films. $27mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Cronenberg's due, Mortensen was overlooked for Violence and Watts already got a nod for 21 Grams.

-----------------------------------

THE BRAVE ONE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jodie Foster grows up into Travis Bickle.

WILL IT SUCK?
One of the writers has some experience with films where the protagonists take the law into their own hands. He wrote The Star Chamber. Sigh. Terence Howard and Nicky Katt find their way into this as well.

In spite of my reservations, early buzz is quite good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has more star power than the other crime thriller this weekend. $50mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
While I doubt this will quite rank with The Accused or Silence of the Lambs there is already awards talk for Foster.

-----------------------------------

MR. WOODCOCK

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy tries to keep his mom from marrying his old gym coach.

WILL IT SUCK?
Not knowing much about the director or writers, let's look at the fact that Wedding Crashers director David Dobkin was brought in for massive reshoots and that the trailer looks like crap to say that, yes, this will be 18 different kinds of suck.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sadly, this will probably be one of the highest grossing films this weekend. $43mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Yes. Most subtle poster.

-----------------------------------

IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Iraq-inflected murder mystery

WILL IT SUCK?
From the writer/director of Crash, starring Tommy Lee Jones, Charlize Theron, James Franco, Susan Sarandon and Jason Patric. Odds are against sucking, but it's not impossible. Early buzz out of Venice is mixed.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Assassination might be a problem next week, but I think Warner Independent will be able to drum up a little buzz for this tiny little project. $28mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There are no less than four Oscar winners involved in this one.

-----------------------------------

DECEMBER BOYS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
It's Daniel Radcliffe! And he's in an indie drama!

WILL IT SUCK?
Not much to recommend this one way or another unless the thought of Harry Potter getting his swerve on does it for ya.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Daniel will pull in some folks, but not that many. $1mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Seems unlikely.

-----------------------------------

IRA AND ABBY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Couple that probably shouldn't get married, does.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very good. Written by Jessica Stein herself, Jennifer Westfeldt, who also stars. Won awards at U.S. Comedy Arts, L.A. Film Fest, and the Boston Jewish Film Festival, which I bet you never knew existed until now.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is the kind of movie Magnolia could weave into gold based on the buzz, but the company's not known for major theatrical pushes. $7mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If this makes an end run around the big budget contenders on pure word of mouth and screeners, I could see this being a long shot for a screenplay nod.

-----------------------------------

ACROSS THE UNIVERSE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Writer names his main character Jude just so a Beatles-only musical can build to a certain song.

WILL IT SUCK?
I could go on and on about why this will probably suck, but this sums it up so much more nicely. My favorite line, if you don't want to read the whole thing, is "By the time the dancing puppet heads come out, you're just like no, no, NO."

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Hey, it tested well with the teens. $21mil.

WILL ANYONE REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Maybe some technical shiznit.

-----------------------------------

SILK

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The romantic entanglements of a silk smuggler.

WILL IT SUCK?
Writer/director Francois Girard (tell me that isn't the Frenchest name ever, even though he's Canadian) is used to more episodic fare (32 Short Films About Glenn Gould, The Red Violin), so it'll be interesting to see how he handles following one narrative for a whole movie. Early buzz says he does well.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Outmatched. $5mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Red Violin won an award, but I doubt anyone's memory will stretch back to 2000.

-----------------------------------

DRAGON WARS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Just like the title says, baby. Rock-'em, Sock-'em Dragons.

WILL IT SUCK?
Director Hyung-rae Shim's decade-in-the-making highest grossing opening weekend in South Korean history monsterfest looks to be the guilltiest pleasure of the fall. And can somebody tell me how Robert Forster ended up in here?

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will develop a great cult following...on DVD. $3mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Nope, but will somebody cross their fingers for a Foreign nod for The Host?

-----------------------------------

MOVING MCALLISTER

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Indie My Boss's Daughter

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very good, though from the trailer this looks like yet another waste of Jon Heder's increasingly unstable cred. But hey, I'm just glad to see Billy Drago still getting work.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nobody freakin' knows about this flick, except that maybe they heard that it was this film's wrap party Heder was leaving when he got into a fatal car crash that turned out to be an internet rumor. Not effective marketing. $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but do you think Heder deserved a nod for Dynamite?

-----------------------------------

KING OF CALIFORNIA

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Michael Douglas is a crazy old man and he's sure there's buried treasure under that there Costco!

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is quite good in spite of a cheesy-ass trailer.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Assassination might be an issue the following week, but if buzz can hold it, this can have decent returns. $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
People are already talking about Douglas' performance.

-----------------------------------
September 14
-----------------------------------

RESIDENT EVIL: EXTINCTION

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
More zombies and shit.

WILL IT SUCK?
Just be thankful this is the last one.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
People love them some RE. $52mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but I would pay to watch Paul Thomas Anderson beat the shit out of Paul W.S. Anderson during half-time. If they had half-time.

-----------------------------------

GOOD LUCK CHUCK

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Okay, so if you sleep with Dane Cook, the next person you meet will be your true love. Dane tries to break this curse. (It's true by the way. I slept with Dane the night before I met my wife. He's a cuddler.)

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is actually pretty good. Yeah, I'm as surprised as you are.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Run Fatboy Run provides a little bit of competition the following week, and Employee of the Month grosses indicate the Dane Train may have come to a stop. $39mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but for the record, I actually think he's funny as shit.

-----------------------------------

INTO THE WILD

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Emile Hirsch goes on walkabout.

WILL IT SUCK?
Dude, Eddie Vedder is totally doing the soundtrack! Oh, right, the film. A lot of people forget that Sean Penn is an acclaimed writer/director and he's already up to his fourth feature with this one. Based on the true story of Christopher McCandless, who gave all he had to charity and headed for Alaska after graduating Emory in '92.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
One of the reasons people forget that Penn is an acclaimed director is because his movies don't make a lot of money. $20mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Academy has yet to figure out that he's a triple threat.

-----------------------------------

SYDNEY WHITE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
...and the seven dorks. Get it? Cos' it's in college and she meets some nerds, see?

WILL IT SUCK?
I don't know which is sadder, that Joe Nussbaum has gone from George Lucas in Love to this, or that one of the dorks is Freaks and Geeks alum Samm Levine.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I actually think Across the Universe has a better shot. $17mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Which of the teen queens do you think will be the first to win an Oscar? I used to think it would be Lindsay (back during her Mean Girls days, just before the implosion). Now my money's on Mandy Moore.

-----------------------------------

THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
How long do they have to make the title before you know what it's about?

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has this as the result of a post-production nightmare as involved as the one that surrounded The Invasion. Explains why it was supposed to come out last year and still has the same trailer.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Lust, Caution will be a bit of an issue the following week since it'll probably get better reviews, but, c'mon, this has Brad Pitt. $35mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
With a little bit of good buzz, this is the type of moody western that could do quite well with the Academy.

-----------------------------------

THE JANE AUSTEN BOOK CLUB

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Admit it. As soon as you saw "Jane Austen" you decided whether or not you wanted to keep reading.

WILL IT SUCK?
The fact that the writer/director scripted Memoirs of a Geisha does not fill me with confidence. By the way, do you think this exchange ever happened on the set of The Devil Wears Prada?

Emily Blunt: So, my next project is Jane Austen Book Club. I'm one of the members of the club. We read Jane Austen books.

Anne Hathaway: Oh, yeah? Well in my next project I AM Jane Austen, bitch!

And then they wrestled in low-fat Jello. I'm serious. That totally fucking happened.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Again, Lust, Caution. $8mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Academy likes actual Jane Austen adaptations, but not much else.

-----------------------------------

TRADE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Human Trafficking, the feature film version.

WILL IT SUCK?
Critics and audiences disagree pretty damn strongly on this one. Critics dismiss it heartily while audiences seem to have embraced it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Gee, do I wanna go see dreamy Brad Pitt, funny Jane Austen, or a movie about the horrors of human trafficking that even if I could be sure it wouldn't suck would still depress the shit out of me? $2mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
When Stephen Gaghan makes a movie about human trafficking, that'll get some nods.

-----------------------------------

THE LAST WINTER

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Horror flick set against the backdrop of global warming. Seriously.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but it's the best-rated flick yet from low-budget horror guru Larry Fessenden (Wendigo). Hey, anyone who can wrangle Friday Night Lights stars Connie Britton and Zach Gilford and throw in Ron Perelman and James LeGros for good measure is all right in my book.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Waaay below the radar. $750,000.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Maybe eco-horror is a genre the Academy can get behind.

-----------------------------------
September 28
-----------------------------------

THE GAME PLAN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Can you smell what the Rock is cooking...for the little girl he suddenly has to take care of?

WILL IT SUCK?
If it weren't enough that this director is reteaming with The Rock (clearly looking to make those Ice Cube family dollars with this film) to do a Witch Mountain remake, he's also remaking Fame (presumably not with The Rock, though that would be awesome). As for this film, I'm getting more of a Pacifier than a Mr. Mom vibe.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Seeker will target a not altogether different family audience the following week. $37mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Maybe when he makes that King Kamehameha movie.

-----------------------------------

THE KINGDOM

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jamie Foxx takes his FBI team to Saudi Arabia to investigate a terrorist attack.

WILL IT SUCK?
Certainly not, though there'll be plenty of people who claim (perhaps accurately) that it oversimplifies a complex conflict. But I loved it.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Heartbreak Kid which, strangely, will have a similar demo might be an issue next week, but I think audiences are just now becoming prepared for some brutal depictions of life in the Middle East. $76mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Depending upon the reception of this and other Middle East/Iraq flicks this fall, you could see director Peter Berg getting some love along with screenwriter Matthew Michael Carnahan, and maybe a Supporting nod for Ashraf Barhom as the Saudi colonel who assists the team.

-----------------------------------

FEAST OF LOVE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ensemble romantic comedy.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sort of, well, harmless. Robert Benton is a more-than-decent director and the screenwriter did the recently critically acclaimed Resurrecting the Champ, so it's got a shot. I'm not exactly lining up for Greg Kinnear, Selma Blair, Morgan Freeman, Missi Pyle, Radha Mitchell and Fred Ward (but I'm not running away, either).

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Heartbreak Kid is going to be a problem. But a bigger problem is that no one has heard of this. $23mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
"Harmless" movies usually only get nods if they make bank.

-----------------------------------

GOAL 2: LIVING THE DREAM

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Sequel to Goal. It was a soccer movie. Never mind.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good, but not so far off from the original.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
About as well as Goal! $4mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'm not sure anyone in the Academy knows how to play soccer.

-----------------------------------

LUST, CAUTION

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Sex and intrigue in 1940's Shanghai.

WILL IT SUCK?
First off, let's get this straight. Ang Lee is a hella-filmmaker. I'll watch almost anything he makes (even The Hulk). And here he's reteamed with his frequent writer/producer James Schamus and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon co-writer Hui-Ling Wang. And we get to see how he works with Wong Kar-Wai player Tony Leung. Bottom line, this is one of the most-anticipated indie releases of the fall.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
NC-17 and a lack of stars will be serious impediments, not to mention opening against Wes Anderson. $8mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
You bet your sweet bippy. Look for screenplay, director, foreign language and maybe some love for Leung, Joan Chen and newcomer Tang Wei in the sexy, sexy lead.

-----------------------------------

THE DARJEELING LIMITED

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Wes Anderson goes to India

WILL IT SUCK?
It's Wes Anderson. 'nuff said. Interested to see what happens when he co-writes with Roman Coppola and Jason Schwarztman, though.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Heavy competition coming next week with Michael Clayton and Grace Is Gone, and I'm not sure why he's releasing on a Saturday, but this should hold its own. $25mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
With Wes, I feel it's always a possibility, though it's only happened once before (a Screenplay nod for Tenenbaums).

-----------------------------------

BORDERTOWN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jennifer Lopez investigates the murders of factory workers on the Juarez/El Paso border.

WILL IT SUCK?
Lopez reunites with Selena writer/director Gregory Nava to tell the true story of 470 women who have been killed in this town since 1993. Early buzz has it you might be better off reading "The Killing Fields: Harvest of Women," journalist Diana Washington Valdez's tome which inspired the film.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If Lopez couldn't get people to see a relatively happy tale (El Cantante), she'll definitely have trouble getting them to line up for this. $3mil.

WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Dude, they didn't even remember Selena.

Next Month: The Iraq extravaganza continues with a film that's likely to bring these two names together: Cusack. Oscar.

-- Dave Thomas