by Dave Thomas

Michael Clayton
So that Cusack movie I promised you got delayed until December. Apparently they think it has an Oscar shot, too. But there's still lots of... well... actually, this month's pretty lame.
October 5
THE SEEKER: THE DARK IS RISING
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Another kids'-fantasy-novel-series-turned-franchise-hopeful.
WILL IT SUCK?
Am I the only one with that Who song stuck in my head now? From the director of the, erm, controversial Path to 9/11 miniseries, so watch for the part where they blame Clinton for the rising of the dark. From the writer behind early Danny Boyle efforts Shallow Grave through The Beach, so, there's that. Doctor Who fans should keep an eye out for Christopher Eccleston as "The Rider."
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will play Bridge to Terabithia to Golden Compass' Narnia. $41mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Like I said, Terabithia, not Narnia.
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THE HEARTBREAK KID
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Farrelly brothers remake that 1972 flick you never saw.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. The brothers haven't made anything as effective as There's Something About Mary since, but they're consistent. Ben Stiller reteams with them, but this doesn't look like it will add anything to the Meet Something About Polly subgenre he's established.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Stiller owns this genre: $89mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but if you wanna see Stiller give an Oscar-worthy performance, check out Permanent Midnight.
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FEEL THE NOISE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Sadly, not a film version of the Quiet Riot hit (originally by Slade, who knew?).
WILL IT SUCK?
One good early review. Otherwise looks to be Save the Last Stomp the Step Served Up.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's nothing else for the kidz. $21mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but can we put Giancarlo Esposito, who stars as "the dad" in this, back in some Oscar-caliber shit?
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MY KID COULD PAINT THAT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Four year old Marla Olmstead painted abstract art worth hundreds of thousands of dollars...or did she?
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz on this doc is mad good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Doc-wise, pretty much has the field to itself. And after winning a bidding war for it at Sundance, you can bet Sony Pictures Classics is going to advertise the hell out of it. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I can see this easily making the short list for docs.
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FINISHING THE GAME
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Mockumentary about an attempt to complete Bruce Lee's unfinished Game of Death.
WILL IT SUCK?
For the first time since Better Luck Tomorrow, it looks like Justin Lin has directed a film that won't suck. Not to mention the presence of 21 Jump Street's Dustin Nguyen. Ioki, motherfucker! Based on actual events surrounding the cynical efforts to finish the film Bruce Lee was making when he died. Early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Way outmatched. $750,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but if you haven't seen Better Luck Tomorrow, it's worth a look.
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THE GOOD NIGHT
(Delayed from September)
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Martin Freeman dreams about Penelope Cruz, like, a lot.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Nice cast, however: Gwyneth Paltrow (director's sister), Simon Pegg and Michael Gambon are also up in here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Good cast but not nearly enough buzz. $250,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Science of Sleep didn't make it...
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WEIRDSVILLE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
After Hours with more drugs.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, placing this somewhere between Pump Up the Volume and Empire Records in the Allan Moyle canon.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Better on DVD. $750,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Academy has yet to embrace the drug comedy genre.
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MICHAEL CLAYTON
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
George Clooney plays a lawyer who specializes in cleaning up messes.
WILL IT SUCK?
It's the good shit. Bourne go-to-adapter Tony Gilroy directs with a serious hard on for 70's cinema. Clooney, Wilkinson, Swinton and Pollack all turn in solid performances.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A heavy hitter in a thick indie season. $32mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Although Clooney carries the film well, it's Wilkinson who's the shoo-in for a nod. Gilroy could be looking at writing and directing nods before we're through.
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NINA'S HEAVENLY DELIGHTS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Indian woman returns to Scotland to save her deceased father's failing restaurant.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. From the screenwriter of Dear Frankie.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Too. Many. Movies. $250,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Too obscure.
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October 12
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WE OWN THE NIGHT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Michelob Story? C'mon. I can't be the only one who remembers this. Anyway, Mark Wahlberg and Joaquin Phoenix team up to fight some mobsters or something.
WILL IT SUCK?
Very mixed reviews for this one from writer/director James Gray, who's covered this material before with Little Odessa and The Yards (the latter of which also starred Marky Mark and Johnny Cash).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Gone Baby Gone might be a wee bit of an issue the following week, but this should hold its own. $65mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
In spite of a Golden Palm nod at Cannes, reviews stateside are kind of tepid for that.
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ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Queen Elizabeth vs. the Spanish Armada
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very mixed. Some say this sequel, which reunites Cate Blanchett with director Shekhar Kaphur and writer Michael Hirst (throwing in Gladiator co-scribe William Nicholson for fun), surpasses the original, while others find it to be a lot of pomp without any circumstance.
Geoffrey Rush is back, too, joined by Clive Owen and Samantha Morton, so my curiosity is piqued. And, yes, Kaphur is planning on a third act.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don't see this as a wide release. $31mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Likely, but I don't see this packing as much of a punch as the original.
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TYLER PERRY'S WHY DID I GET MARRIED?
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Four married couples soul-search in the Colorado mountains.
WILL IT SUCK?
No more than any other Tyler Perry movie. Notable for the film debut of Jill Scott and the post-wardrobe-malfunction debut of Janet Jackson.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real competition. $32mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That's probably still a long way off.
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SLEUTH
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Remake of the 1972 classic battle of wits between a man and his wife's lover.
WILL IT SUCK?
Again, mixed reviews. Audiences love it more than critics, with IMDB users ranking it as director Kenneth Branagh's best since Henry V. Jude Law and Michael Caine take over for Michael Caine and Laurence Olivier, respectively, with a screenplay from no-slouch Harold Pinter.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It'll be an interesting tension between middling reviews and the fan base for Law, Caine and Branagh to see how this opens. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This is the type of movie tailor-made for acting nods, but without better reviews, that doesn't seem likely.
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LARS AND THE REAL GIRL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ryan Gosling gets it on with a doll, yo.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, in spite of the fact that this is from Mr. Woodcock helmer Craig Gillespie. Probably tempered by the fact that Six Feet Under writer Nancy Oliver did the screenplay. Patricia Clarkson, Emily Mortimer and Paul Schneider are up in here, too.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
More quirky comedy coming from Wristcutters the following week, but I can see this catching on. $6mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I doubt Gosling will get two nods in a row, but it would be awesome if the doll got a nod.
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CONTROL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Joy Division lead singer Ian Curtis biopic. Think of him as the Kurt Cobain of New Wave.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is ex-truh-emely good. The directorial debut of photographer (think the cover of The Joshua Tree) and music video helmer Anton Corbijn. Samantha Morton plays Curtis' wife, who wrote the biography on which this is based.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not a huge Joy Division contingent out there, much as there should be. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I can conceive of the lead being an outside shot, and Samantha Morton is always good Oscar bait.
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THE FINAL SEASON
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Small town baseball team makes good.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, you've got the director of The Sandlot, which, apparently, a lot of people liked. He did Beethoven's 3rd and 4th as well, which, not so much.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This feels like straight-to-DVD. $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I'm liking the casting of Powers Boothe and Sean Astin, but no.
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October 19
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30 DAYS OF NIGHT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Fighting vampires in a part of the world where night lasts for the title.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. I like the choices they've made here. You've got Hard Candy's David Slade directing and Stuart "the other guy who wrote the Pirates flicks" Beattie co-writing the screenplay with the co-author of the graphic novel, among others. I like Ben Foster and Danny Huston being up in there, too.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Saw IV will crush it next week, but this weekend it has the genre all to itself. $34mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Still no vampire Oscars.
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RENDITION
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Husband gets snatched by the gub'ment. Wife goes after him.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good. Which is too bad since it's a great topic, decent cast (Reese Witherspoon, Jake Gyllenhaal, Peter Saarsgard, Meryl Streep, Alan Arkin) and great director (Tsotsi's Gavin Hood).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The best thing this movie has going for it is its cast. $49mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Maybe with better reviews.
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THINGS WE LOST IN THE FIRE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Benecio Del Toro helps recently widowed Halle Berry deal with loss.
WILL IT SUCK?
From After the Wedding director Susanne Bier. Not much to go on here, but I've gotta admit, the trailer's a snoozer.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Should have been a limited release. $22mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This is the type of movie that was made for the fact that you can say Academy Award Winner twice in the trailer.
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GONE BABY GONE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The search for a missing girl in Boston.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is extremely good. I say that knowing full well this is the directorial debut of Ben Affleck. He also co-wrote the script, as he did with Good Will Hunting, which didn't exactly suck. Casey Affleck, Michelle Mognahan, Ed Harris and Morgan Freeman star.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
We Own the Night might be a bit of an issue. $36mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Depends how well the buzz holds up. I still can't wrap my mind around a directing nod for Ben, but the only question about his brother seems to be will he get a nod for this or Jesse James?
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THE COMEBACKS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Sports Movie
WILL IT SUCK?
You'd think a guy named Tom Brady would be the perfect choice to direct a sports movie spoof, until you realize he also directed The Hot Chick. Oh, and he's going to direct the Welcome Back, Kotter movie, too.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
More comedy from Steve Carrell the following week, but this should be in the range of Epic or Date Movies. $30mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but tell me that the movie that started it all didn't deserve a Best Picture nod.
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SARAH LANDON AND THE PARANORMAL HOUR
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Harry Potter/Nancy Drew rip.
WILL IT SUCK?
I'd say it's just the marketing that leads to the above assessment, but the acting looks crappy, too.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not sure this'll have the market penetration to hit the family demo it's going for. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Worst Acting in a Trailer. Seriously.
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RESERVATION ROAD
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Joaquin Phoenix tries to find the man (Mark Ruffalo) who killed his son in a hit-and-run accident.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is split between audiences who seem to like it and critics who find it to be so much over-the-top implausible melodrama. Myself, I'm getting a House of Sand and Fog vibe off of this one, and that's not a good thing.
From Terry George, who did Hotel Rwanda (which I liked, but didn't love), and co-wrote the screenplay with the author of the novel on which this movie's based.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Surprisingly, not that much competition in the heavy-hitting drama category right now. $18mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
This is tailor-made for that (three of the four leads have Oscar nods, and two have wins). But I don't see it happening.
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WRISTCUTTERS: A LOVE STORY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A guy tries to find his ex after killing himself and going to purgatory.
WILL IT SUCK?
It's actually very sweet. And very funny. And, as you might expect, kind of weird. More here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Second frame of Lars might cut into this a little, but overall the vibe I get from this is that it will gain its cult cred on DVD. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Best Opening Line. "After I died, I got a job working at Kamikaze Pizza."
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October 26
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DAN IN REAL LIFE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Dan (Steve Carell) goes to his family reunion and falls for his brother's (Dane Cook) girlfriend (Juliette Binoche).
WILL IT SUCK?
Writer/director Peter Hedges lives and breathes this stuff. His Pieces of April covered similar ground. It's almost enough to make me ignore the unbelievably cheesy trailer.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Evan Almighty proved that Carell's not invulnerable. Then gain, even The Family Stone made some bank. $61mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Hedges directed Patricia Clarkson to a nod in April, so it's not out of the question.
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SAW IV
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
More torture and shit.
WILL IT SUCK?
It'll be interesting to see what Feast writers Patrick Melton and Marcus Dunstan do with the material. (There's a Feast 2 and 3 on the way for some reason, by the way.) Same director as II and III. Oh, and Jigsaw's dead, right? Yeah, interesting to see what they do with that, too.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The closest thing you'll get to a blockbuster this month. $81mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Most Punctual Franchise? Seriously, every Halloween they're Johnny-on-the-spot with that shit.
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RAILS & TIES
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kevin Bacon forms a bond with the kid who's mom used his train to commit suicide.
WILL IT SUCK?
Directed by Clint's daughter, Alison Eastwood. No pressure. Early buzz is mixed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In a very crowded season, I'm not sure anyone besides Clint knows about this one. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It took her dad a long time before the Academy started looking at him as a director. Of course Coppola's daughter got the nod on her second flick.
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BEFORE THE DEVIL KNOWS YOU'RE DEAD
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Two brothers conspire to rob their parents.
WILL IT SUCK?
Sidney Lumet at the helm. As often as not a good thing. Early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Need more buzz. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Looks like a juicy role for Philip Seymour Hoffman, but it's not like he's due.
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JIMMY CARTER MAN FROM PLAINS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jimmy Carter goes on a book tour. Jonathan Demme watches.
WILL IT SUCK?
Demme is an accomplished documentarian, and the early buzz seem to say that streak continues, with one critic liking the film better than the book Carter was promoting.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Political doc Darfur Now will likely trump this political doc next week. $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Most Grammatically Troublesome Title.
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MUSIC WITHIN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A deaf guy and a guy with CP go around solving mysteries. Okay, actually they help create the Americans With Disabilities Act, but I like my plot, too.
WILL IT SUCK?
Really not much known about the writers or director. Ron Livingston and Michael Sheen should make a good leads, and the presence of Clint Howard makes any movie better.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even with my brilliant mystery-solving premise, this film would need better marketing. $750,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Both leads have disabilities? That's like Oscar gold! But will enough people see it?
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THE SIGNAL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A mysterious signal is broadcast over all airwaves that basically says "you go kill now."
WILL IT SUCK?
Three writer/directors tackle the three acts of the film. The concept works, according to early buzz.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Why are they opening this against Saw IV? Do they not like themselves? $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Can we just have a separate Horror category? There's still enough good product being made to make it worth it.
Next Month: Two projects with years of buzz behind them, but only one with naked, CGI Angelina Jolie.
-- Dave Thomas