by Dave Thomas

Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay
Oftentimes, April is the East River of months, a dumping ground for corpses of films that are already dead but just don't know it yet. Fortunately, there only seem to be a few of those this year.
April 4
LEATHERHEADS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Old-timey football romcom.
WILL IT SUCK?
I've zero interest in football movies, but I know what happens when George Clooney directs. He could make a Larry the Cable Guy film and I'd go see it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Ironically, George Clooney does not do well in romantic comedies. $36mil.
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SHINE A LIGHT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Scorcese finds a way to fit in the 5 Rolling Stones songs he hasn't put in one of his films yet by making a concert movie.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good and why not? The last time this guy made a concert film it was The Last Waltz. Trailer gets me pretty psyched, what with the behind-the-scenes bickering and the fact that they're going to do "You Got the Silver."
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Concert films do not do well. Unless Mick Jagger is Hannah Montana. Is Mick Jagger Hannah Montana? $6mil.
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NIM'S ISLAND
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
It's Jodie Foster! And she's in a kid's film!
WILL IT SUCK?
Interesting pedigree. A writer from The Wonder Years worked on the screenplay and co-directs with his Little Manhattan co-writer. He also directed Little Manhattan. He knows how to write for and work with kids, is what I'm saying. Still looks cheesy. But virtually all kids films look cheesy to me.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It'll be interesting to see how Foster draws in this genre, but fantasy has seen diminishing returns of late. $66mil.
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THE RUINS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Tourists vs. really nasty vegetation.
WILL IT SUCK?
A Simple Plan novelist Scott B. Smith adapts his own novel once again. And it stars Jena Malone. So I have a little more faith in this than, say, The Eye.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Kind of rare to see a major studio (ex-studio? what the hell is DreamWorks now?) back a horror film (especially an R-rated horror film) instead of funneling it off to some subsidiary, but I think they'll be glad they did. $54mil.
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MY BLUEBERRY NIGHTS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Wong Kar Wai brings his indie sensibilities stateside.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, and even the positive reviews seem to find fault (mostly with Wong's screenplay, not his direction).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If the filmmaker's following doesn't produce a turnout, the interesting casting (Norah Jones, Jude Law, David Strathairn, Natalie Portman, Rachel Weisz) might. $3mil.
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THE FLIGHT OF THE RED BALLOON
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Balloon follows some kid around while he tries to imagine a better life.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good and, yes, the title's a reference to the 1956 Lamorisse flick.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Aside from hardcore Juliette Binoche fans and the five people in the room who've seen that 1956 Lamorisse flick, I don't see this having that big a draw. $1mil.
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April 11
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STREET KINGS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
More LAPD corruption from David Ayer (Training Day, Dark Blue).
WILL IT SUCK?
To be clear, Ayer wrote Training Day and Dark Blue. Here he only directs. On the other hand, legendary LA crime chronicler James Ellroy co-wrote the screenplay. On the other hand, he co-wrote it with Kurt Wimmer, who negated Equilibrium with Ultraviolet. On the other hand, there's a third screenwriter I've never heard of.
In the end, the biggest challenge I think this movie has to overcome is balancing an excellent supporting cast (Common, Forrest Whitaker, Hugh Laurie) with answering the question, "Can Keanu Reeves play 'harsh'?"
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I see no reason for this to do much better than most non-Denzel Ayer fare. $20mil.
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SMART PEOPLE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Dennis Quaid and Thomas Hayden Church play mismatched brothers in this comedy about a dysfunctional family.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, incuding a decent reception at Sundance. Ellen Page rounds out the cast as Quaid's Young Republican daughter.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Forgetting Sarah Marshall is going to be a serious contender for attention the following week, in spite of whatever post-Juno Page bump this film might garner. $8mil.
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PROM NIGHT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
What else ever happens on prom night? Kids gets stalked by a killer.
WILL IT SUCK?
Not a remake so much as a reimagining. Yeah, that always bodes well. From the guy who wrote The Covenant.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I almost think people would rather see The Ruins a second time. $28mil.
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THE VISITOR
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Professor discovers Syrian/Sengalese immigrant couple squatting in his New York apartment. Life lessons ensue.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is even better than for writer/director Thomas McCarthy's previous effort, The Station Agent (a.k.a. Best. Movie. Ever.)
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If they play up The Station Agent angle, this might do similar business. $5mil.
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YOUNG@HEART
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about a choir for people of a certain age (that means wicked old) who sing songs like "I Wanna Be Sedated."
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is extremely good. Got a standing O at the LA film fest.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Fox Searchlight is damn good at marketing. I can see them having the same success Paramount did with Mad Hot Ballroom. $4mil.
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DARK MATTER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Trials and tribulations of a Chinese astrophysics student.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, though it did win an award Sundance. Meryl Streep gets her indie on in a supporting role.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If you don't mind a major spoiler, click here to find out why this film's release might be controversial. That having been said, I don't think it will be controversy enough for a big open. $2mil.
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April 18
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88 MINUTES
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kind of like DOA, but crazy fast.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not great. Somehow, the trailer fails to say, "The new thriller from the director of Fried Green Tomatoes!"
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
On a weekend without Sarah Marshall and Forbidden Kingdom, maybe it would stand a chance. $37mil.
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THE FORBIDDEN KINGDOM
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kid (somehow not Shia LaBouef) is magically transported to ancient China where he takes part in a quest to do something important that somehow involves Jet Li and Jackie Chan being onscreen together for the first time ever.
WILL IT SUCK?
Director Rob Minkoff has covered the entire spectrum of Disney quality, from The Lion King to The Haunted Mansion. The writer specializes in movies with horses in them, having penned Hidalgo, Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron and Young Guns. None of this necessarily means anything to a kung-fu film. However, Woo-Ping Yuen did the fight choreography. Combine him with Chan and Li (not to mention the DP from Crouching Tiger) and I don't care if Uwe fucking Boll is directing, I. Am. There.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This film suffers from the problem of mixed audiences. It's being marketed as a family film, but the leads' following is not a family film audience. $35mil.
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FORGETTING SARAH MARSHALL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy (Jason Segel) tries to forget girl (Kristen Bell), but ends up going to the same resort as her and her new boyfriend.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is like Knocked Up good, though Apatow only produces this one. Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, Jonah Hill and Paul Rudd are also up in here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Having Harold and Kumar and Baby Mama opening the very next week doesn't help matters. But strong advance buzz worked for Knocked Up and Superbad, so this should at least open well. $71mil.
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PATHOLOGY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Medical students working in a morgue find a way to, er, make extra work for themselves.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the guys who wrote the occasionally reprehensible Crank. Think they can top the misogyny and xenophobia in that one?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Heroes-starved Milo Ventimiglia fans might round out the opening weekend, but that's about it. $6mil.
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WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN?
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Morgan Spurlock goes looking for the world's most wanted man.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. If it's half as good as Super Size Me, I'm interested.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some people might feel that the War on Terror is too serious a topic for the tongue-in-cheek humor Spurlock brought to Super Size Me, so it might not be quite as big of a draw. $6mil.
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THE LIFE BEFORE HER EYES
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Uma Thurman looks back on her youth, when she looked remarkably like Evan Rachel Wood.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Director Vadim Perelman did a decent job with House of Sand and Fog, which I disliked, but not because of the direction.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think this is going to be one of those cases where star power doesn't really help. $2mil.
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April 25
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HAROLD AND KUMAR ESCAPE FROM GUANTANAMO BAY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Read the title.
WILL IT SUCK?
High-fucking-larious. Go now.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Opening against Baby Mama, the second frame of Sarah Marshall and right before Iron Man is not ideal, but Harold and Kumar (and NPH) have had plenty of time to build a fan base. $51mil.
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DECEPTION
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ewan McGregor gets involved in a prostitution ring. Things go worse for him than for that other guy.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the writer behind Live Free or Die Hard, but delays, title changes and such lead me to believe this is an April dump. Also starring Hugh Jackman, Maggie Q and Michelle Williams.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
April dumps do not do well. $15mil.
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BABY MAMA
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Tina Fey hires Amy Poehler to carry her child. Maybe-I-should-have-kept-looking hilarity ensues.
WILL IT SUCK?
Written and directed by Michael McCullers, co-writer on Undercover Brother and the Austin Powers films. Fey's got Romany Malco, Sigourney Weaver, Greg Kinnear, Dax Shepherd and Maura Tierney providing support.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sarah Marshall the week before, Harold & Kumar this week and Made of Honor opens the very next. Still, Fey's garnered a decent following. $41mil.
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ROMAN DE GARE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Thriller involving a novelist researching her next book.
WILL IT SUCK?
The trailer should be taught in class called "How Not to Make a Trailer." That havng been said, it's got generally good buzz. Nominated for a Cesar. Director Claude Lelouch won an Oscar for writing A Man and a Woman back in '66. But it's likely Web folk are more familiar with the kick-ass driving short he directed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
And even more people have no idea who Claude Lelouch is at all. $1mil.
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DEAL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Color of Poker
WILL IT SUCK?
Burt Reynolds plays the Paul Newman role and Reaper's Bret Harrison plays Tom Cruise. To look at the trailer, this will follow every cliche it can get its hands on. Early buzz is not good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think I speak for most Reaper fans when I say, I like the show, but not that much. $500,000.
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STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Errol Morris takes on Abu Ghraib.
WILL IT SUCK?
In spite of a Silver Bear at Berlin, early critical buzz is mixed; but I'm willing to give Morris the benefit of the doubt. Check out the larger picture of which this doc is only going to be a part.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Awesome as they may be, Errol Morris movies are never really "hits." $3mil.
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THEN SHE FOUND ME
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Helen Hunt stars in her directorial debut as a woman dealing with a new pregnancy by her ex-husband (Matthew Broderick), a new beau (Colin Firth) and the discovery of her birth mother (Bette Midler).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Won the Audience Award at the Palm Springs Film Festival.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Honestly, not that much competition. Well-marketed, this could make it happen. $5mil.
Next Month: Indiana Jones and the Month of Non-Stop Blockbusters.