by Dave Thomas
Last May, three potentially great blockbusters came along and broke our hearts. This month four movies with the same potential (well, maybe not Speed Racer) are in play. Are we ready to love again?
MAY 2
MADE OF HONOR
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
My Best Female Friend's Wedding
WILL IT SUCK?
Hey, I'm as big a Michelle Monaghan fan as the next guy, but even I have my limits. From the director of such classic sequels as City Slickers II and Leonard Part 6. Two of the writers did Surviving Christmas and The Flinstones in Viva Rock Vegas but, to be fair, they also did Can't Hardly Wait and the underrated Josie and the Pussycats. Early buzz not good.
By the way, is this not the goofiest film promotion of late? I mean, who wouldn't want to get married at a movie premiere?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Counterprogramming only works if your movie doesn't suck balls. Just ask License to Wed. $44mil.
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IRON MAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
He is Iron Man. Duh-de-duh-de-duh-duh. Vote for him.
WILL IT SUCK?
You had me at Robert Downey, Jr. as Tony Stark. Seriously, this could be the first onscreen superhero to be more entertaining not in costume. Jon Favreau has twice proven his ability to take material that could have been horrible (Elf, Zathura) and turn it into silver if not gold. Two of the four writers did Children of Men. So, damn.
Early buzz loves the cast more than the movie.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's easy to underestimate just how many people are looking forward to this, since he's not a Spider or Super Man. But they're out there. $173mil.
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SON OF RAMBOW
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
British Home Movies
WILL IT SUCK?
Certainly not. One of the best movies I saw at the Philly Film Fest. More here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sundance buzz will help. $9mil.
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FUGITIVE PIECES
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy tries to deal with his tortured past.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Rade Serbedzija (Boris the Blade in Snatch), who plays a man who takes in the lead as a boy, won a Best Actor award at the Rome Film Fest.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not a high enough profile to compete. $1mil.
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MISTER LONELY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A Michael Jackson look-alike (Diego Luna) goes to live with a Marylin Monroe look-alike (Samantha Morton) in a whole community of look-alikes. Kind of like an Island of Misfit Toys for those people who hang around Hollywood Boulevard.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good, though this isn't getting slammed much worse than any other Harmony Korine films. I will say this is probably the only movie this year to star David Blaine and Werner Herzog.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Harmony Korine films make discomfort, not money. $500,000.
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REDBELT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
David Mamet's Lionheart
WILL IT SUCK?
As we all know, it was only a matter of time before Mamet wrote and directed a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu flick. Though this is supposedly more focused on the talky-talky than the kicky-punchy. Chiwetel Ejiofor in the lead doesn't exactly hurt. Early buzz is mixed.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With rare exceptions, Mamet-directed b.o. is usually middling. $6mil.
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MAY 9
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SPEED RACER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Here he comes." Who? "Here comes Speed Racer." Who's that? "He's a demon on wheels." Thank you, informative theme song.
WILL IT SUCK?
What's your tolerance for kitsch? The Wachowskis have decided to play up that aspect of the show (a pretty large aspect, admittedly) rather than create a "bad-ass" version of the TV classic. This could result, maybe, in a surprisingly entertaining, cringe-free experience. But the odds are slim. Not because of the Wachowskis who, more often than not, are adept filmmakers (people remember Matrix Revolutions but forget about Bound). No, because it's really, really easy to aim for kitsch and hit camp, instead.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's not that the show doesn't have a following, it's more that I don't think that many people will trust the flick to not just be an even cheesier version of the show. $140mil.
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WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ashton Kutcher and Cameron Diaz get a quickie wedding in Vegas which they regret. But when Kutcher wins $3 million with Diaz's quarter in a slot machine, they have to stay married for six months to get the money.
WILL IT SUCK?
If you didn't stop reading at "Ashton Kutcher and Cameron Diaz," this movie might be for you. From the writer of The Wedding Date.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A higher profile cast plus no competition the following week equals more effective counterprogramming than Made of Honor the week before. $66mil.
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FRONTIER(S)
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Fugitives on the run pick the wrong place to hide.
WILL IT SUCK?
Writer/director Xavier Gens' first American flick, Hitman, arrived last fall while this, his French debut, waited in MPAA hell. In Gens' defense, he did not write Hitman. Getting favorable comparisons to Saw and Hostel, if you're into that sort of thing.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Saw and Hostel are not Saw and Hostel anymore. $4mil.
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THE FALL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy in a hospital tells some kid a tale of five people fighting the same evil ruler.
WILL IT SUCK?
Get ready for more trippy visuals from The Cell and "Losing My Religion" director Tarsem Singh. This time he writes, too. They've also got a writer from Freejack and Two for the Money on board, so, um, yeah. But, hey, anything to get Lee Pace on the big screen, right? Spike Jonze and David Fincher seem to like it, hence their "presenting" credit. Critics do not seem to like it, but audiences are into it thus far.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Tarsem minus J-Lo equals smaller box office than The Cell. $5mil.
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SURFWISE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about a doctor who gave it all up to wander the country surfing wherever the day took him. Oh, and he took his nine-kid family with him.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Big Rig, which I heard rocks, and Scratch, which I know rocks. Nabbed the audience award at Gen Art. Early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Scratch didn't do that well, either. $500,000.
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MAY 16
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THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: PRINCE CASPIAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Those kids can't leave Narnia for two seconds (or, as it happens, 1,000 years) without somebody fucking it all up again.
WILL IT SUCK?
You got yer whole team back again, plus Eddie Izzard and Peter Dinklage. Oh, and according to the runtime listed on IMDB, it's going to be almost three hours long, so be sure to get extra baked beforehand.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Indy presents a challenge the following weekend, but this is even more family-friendly. $267mil.
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REPRISE
(Delayed from March.)
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The trials and tribulations of two writer friends.
WILL IT SUCK?
Really high marks for this latest entry from Norwegian cinema. And, no, I can't name any other entries from Norwegian cinema.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Gonna need more than "Hey, it's Norse!" to catch people's eyes. $500,000.
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MAY 23
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INDIANA JONES AND THE TEMPLE OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Indiana Jones does some shit. You watch.
WILL IT SUCK?
First and foremost, this is a Spielberg film. Regular readers of this preview will know I am his bitch. So, even without the questions of whether or not Lucas will fuck this up the way he did the Star Wars prequels, or whether or not Harrison Ford is too old for this shit, I am expecting pretty pictures from my favorite maker of such. The presence of Janusz Kaminski, his cinematographo-life partner, is another reason to be psyched.
It should also be noted that Raiders of the Lost Ark is my favorite film of all time. That means I'm even less inclined to be disappointed because I don't think any film, much less a sequel, will be able to top it.
Most of all, though, I'm curious to see what the Spielberg of Munich does back in the escapist saddle.
David Koepp is not the worst guy to have on your team for a screenplay challenge like this. He's no Frank Darabont, who supposedly turned in a draft, but if he can bring this to the level of his Spider-Man script, we're in the ballpark.
Jeff Nathanson chimed in on the story. He's turned in good work for Spielberg before (Catch Me If You Can), but his sequel kung fu is inconsistent at best (Rush Hour 2 and 3).
And, of course, there's Lucas who, when kept out of the director's chair and screenwriter's laptop, can produce an Empire.
Glad to see Karen Allen back, and I think Shia LaBoeuf is underrated, but my biggest reason to squee, casting-wise, is Ray Winstone as, um, whoever.
Long story short, I'm cautiously optimistic, but the realistic outcome here is good-but-not-great.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It'll be between this and Chronicles for top grosser of the year, and this ain't three hours long. $325mil.
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THE CHILDREN OF HUANG SHI
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
True story of a guy who took 60 orphans up the Silk Road to save them from the advancing Japanese army during WWII.
WILL IT SUCK?
From director Roger Spottiswoode, who's done everything from And the Band Played On to Stop! Or My Mom Will Shoot. Ironically, the last time he worked with Michelle Yeoh, who's up in here with John Rhys-Meyers, Rhada Mitchell and Chow Yun Fat, she was riding a motorcycle with Pierce Brosnan in Tomorrow Never Dies. Early buzz is good, so maybe this is closer to And the Band Played On.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A big hit in China, but not so sure that will translate here. $6mil.
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WAR, INC.
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Thank You For Warring
WILL IT SUCK?
A lot of people are calling this Grosse Point Blank 2 because it has a similar cast in similar roles with a similar plot (expanded to a full out foreign war instead of just discrete hits) but I get the feeling this isn't going to be quite as subtle. Some decent writers, including John Cusack, who plays a morally conflicted assassin, again. I get the feeling that it's a great idea that won't get the right execution, and the early buzz seems to confirm that instinct.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The cast will give it some juice, but the word of mouth will limit its run. $8mil.
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MAY 30
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SEX AND THE CITY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Carrie gets ready to marry Mr. Big. And some other stuff happens to those other chicks, too.
WILL IT SUCK?
Looks like they've chosen wisely for their writer/director. Michael Patrick King has written all the season finales and premieres for the show since Season Two, and directed a boatload of eps, too. Oh, and looks like Jennifer Hudson's made a smart choice for her Dreamgirls follow-up.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Pay attention romcoms, this is how you do summer counterprogramming. $88mil.
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THE STRANGERS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Liv Tyler and Scott Speedman vs. things that go bump in the woods outside their cottage.
WILL IT SUCK?
Remake of French horror film Ils, also based on a true story. Do French horror remakes work out better than J-Horror remakes (or American horror remakes, for that matter)?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In spite of Prom Night, I'm not predicting big things for horror this summer. $19mil.
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THE FOOT FIST WAY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A martial arts parody that would be right at home on Funny Or Die, which is exactly where you'll find the red band trailer.
WILL IT SUCK?
Some of you may have seen Danny R. McBride's weird-ass in-character guest spot on Conan. Well, this is that same character. Early buzz is good. By the way, this is the first theatrical release from Will Ferrell and Adam McKay's new production company.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
An indie comedy with bigger star power (The Promotion) opens the very next week. $2mil.
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SAVAGE GRACE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Julianne Moore plays real-life socialite Barbara Baekeland, who was murdered by her son after they had an affair.
WILL IT SUCK?
With Swoon director Tom Kalin at the helm and legendary indie producer Christine Vachon on board, expect a non-exploitative treatment of the story. Don't expect much more, though, given the early tepid buzz.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Controversy might be good for an open, but bad buzz will kill it after that. $1mil.
Next month: We can safely lower our expectations, except from Pixar.
