Early buzz is good. From the director of Superbad. He writes this time, too. Last time he did both, it was The Daytrippers, which people seemed to like. Cast is good, with Jesse "Indie-er Michael Cera" Eisenberg, Bill Hader and Ryan Reynolds.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I dare say it will fare better against Furious than against the flick in its former opening slot, Monsters vs. Aliens. Still, Furious has a similar demo. $41mil.

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SUGAR

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Funny you should mention that. It's about a pitcher imported from the Dominican Republic to play in the Minors.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From the writer/directors of the fantastic Half Nelson, so that 's all I needed to hear. Also, nominated for some love at Sundance and the Indie Spirit Awards.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Doesn't have the star power of Half Nelson. $750,000.

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GIGANTIC

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Indie romcom with Paul Dano and Zooey Deschanel

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good. Nice to see Dano get a lead.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Zooey's other indie romcom is getting more buzz. $1mil.

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PARIS 36

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Let's put on a show to save our theater! In Paris! In 1936! Guess who the bad guys will be!

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From the writer/director of The Chorus, a Best Foreign/Best Song nominee back in '05.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Doesn't have the Oscar push of The Chorus. $2mil.

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ALIEN TRESPASS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
50's-style alien invasion flick.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but appears to be a genial enough retro-spoof. Erick McCormack as the lead sounds like inspired casting, not to mention Dan Lauria (the dad on Wonder Years) as a police chief. Director R.W. Goodwin also seems well-suited, having directed some kick-ass X-Files back in the day.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Extremely crowded weekend, and ironic tribute is tough to market. $500,000.

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BART GOT A ROOM

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Nerdy guy tries to find a date for the prom.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Check out the trailer to see William H. Macy with the best. hair. ever. Also starring Cheryl Hines, Jon Polito and Alia "Where Have You Been Since Arrested Development?" Shawkat.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Did I mention it's a crowded weekend? $2mil.

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THE ESCAPIST

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
British Prison Break

WILL IT SUCK?
You had me at Brian Cox and Damian Lewis, but it's also getting mad buzz and nabbed a Best Actor award for Cox at the Scottish BAFTAs

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Maybe if it weren't up against every other movie in the world this week. $1mil.

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April 10
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HANNAH MONTANA: THE MOVIE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Miley Stewart (Miley Cyrus, how did I not figure that out?) goes home to ponder whether or not to give up her Hannah Montana alter ego. Kind of like Superman 2, but without Zod.

WILL IT SUCK?
Got nothing for or against Hannah. On the other hand, the fact that this is coming from the director of Serendipity and Shall We Dance does not inspire me with confidence. Oh, and Tyra Banks is in there somewhere, too. This is a problem.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You read the title, right? $81mil.

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OBSERVE AND REPORT

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Funnier, darker Paul Blart: Mall Cop

WILL IT SUCK?
From Foot Fist Way writer/director Jody Hill, so expect the awkward. Early buzz has this as a dark turn for Seth Rogen. And that it's good. Also starring Ray Liotta, Michael Pena, Anna Faris, Dan Bakkedahl, Aziz Ansari, Patton Oswalt and Danny McBride.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A bit of trouble from the second frame of Adventureland and probably a little bleed from the Crank sequel next week, but this has absolutely nothing to fear from Hannah Montana. $51mil.

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DRAGONBALL EVOLUTION

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
People try to make it through an entire film without giggling every time they say "dragonballs".

WILL IT SUCK?
Getting for a moment past the Justin Chadwin as Roku (!?) confuzzlement, it is nice to see Chow Yun Fat and James Marsters up in here - and that's where it ends. Early buzz is horrible.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Dude, if you can't even rally your fan base... $9mil.

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ANVIL! THE STORY OF ANVIL

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
True life Spinal Tap

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding. Won some awards on the festival circuit.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Word of mouth should be no problem. The interesting challenge will be to see if the distributor, VH1 Classic, can leverage their brand to boost awareness. $4mil.

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April 17
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STATE OF PLAY

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Chandra Levy case with some Parallax View thrown in.

WILL IT SUCK?
You've got Last King of Scotland helmer Kevin Macdonald up in here directing the likes of Russel Crowe, Rachel McAdams, Ben Affleck, Jason Bateman, Robin Wright Penn, Helen Mirren, Jeff Daniels, Viola Davis and Harry Lennix. Where it gets interesting is the three-way screenplay. Can the mad skillz of Tony Gilroy (Michale Clayton, the Bourne trilogy) and Billy Ray (Shattered Glass, Breach) work and play well with the contribution by Michale Matthew Carnahan (the flawed-but-compelling The Kingdom and the flat-out hated-on Lions for Lambs)? Potential for serious greatness here, though the trailer looks generic.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Little competition, but Body of Lies showed cracks in Crowe's opening ability. $40mil.

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CRANK: HIGH VOLTAGE

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy steals Chev Chelios' (Jason Statham) heart. You know, after he died in the original. Chev, now with an artificial heart that has to be juiced every hour to keep going, has to track down his real heart before he dies. Kind of like a buff Tin Man.

WILL IT SUCK?
First off, mad props on a good tag line. "He was dead...But he got better." Looks like more of the same Maxim-made-celluloid we got in the first installment. Same writer/directors and leads. Adding David Carradine and Clifton Collins Jr. to the mix can only make things more interesting. And it's hard not to be a little bit curious/frightened at the prospect of Corey Haim up in here, too.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The only real competition I can think of demographically comes from the second frame of Observe and Report, which probably won't do that well to begin with. On the other hand, even without competition, Statham has a ceiling. $32mil.

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17 AGAIN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
37-year-old guy (Matthew Perry) turns into 17-year-old version of himself (Zac Efron) and learns the valuable lesson that Zac Efron is much more popular now than Matthew Perry.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is actually pretty good. This shouldn't be too surprising, since the director did Igby Goes Down and eps of Weeds, The L Word and Big Love. The writer, however, did Bringing Down the House, so I am a little surprised.

Oh, and that itching in the back of your head is 18 Again. Yeah, that happened.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
2nd frame of fellow Disney progeny Miley might pose a challenge, but Zac can take it. $67mil.

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EVERY LITTLE STEP

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about A Chorus Line from inception to recent revival.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the directors of Year of the Yao. Early buzz is mixed. Critics more in love than audiences.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The more high profile Tyson doc comes out next week, but word of mouth should help this explode - at least in NY. $1mil.

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AMERICAN VIOLET

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Single mom vs. corrupt law enforcement in Texas. Based on a true story.

WILL IT SUCK?
Here's a little about the true story. Early buzz is good. Strong supporting cast: Alfre Woodard, Will Patton, Michael O'Keefe and Tim Blake Nelson. And the lead, newcomer Nicole Beharie, is supposed to be the shiznit.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Needs more of a push. $3mil.

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IS ANYBODY THERE?

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kid grows up in a nursing home. Befriends Michael Caine.

WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Intermission and the devastating Boy A. Early buzz is good.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don't know if Caine is going to be enough of a draw. $1mil.

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April 24
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OBSESSED

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Interracial Fatal Attraction

WILL IT SUCK?
Well, the director's done some decent television including Dexter and The Wire. The writer, however, has given us Lakeview Terrace and Money Train, so I'm pretty sure Beyonce getting in Ali Larter's face for macking on her man will be about as bad as this trailer makes it out to be.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Does it make me incredibly racist to think that this was targeted at black women who would love to see a movie about a strong black woman fighting off a white woman who's trying to steal her man? $24mil.

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EARTH

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Nature doc in which we follow three families of different cute adorable...Holy crap! Did you just see that shark eat that fish in midair!?

WILL IT SUCK?
Essentially a re-cut of the BBC series Planet Earth with a new narrator (James Earl Jones instead of Patrick Stewart). And Planet Earth was supposed to rock, so...

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is the first release from the new Disneyearth label, so you know they'll promote the hell out of it. It opens on Earth Day and Disney will plant a tree for every ticket sold during the first week so I have to ask, if you don't see it, why do you hate our planet? $8mil.

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FIGHTING

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The Underground Street Fighting Kid

WILL IT SUCK?
From A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints writer/director Dito Montiel, so probably a step up from Never Back Down. Terence Howard and Luis Guzman in the supporting cast, but the casting that really has me stoked is Roger Guenveur Smith, whom you may remember as Smiley from Do the Right Thing, but looks to make a nice turn as a villain here.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Do you remember A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints? Do you even remember Never Back Down? $25mil.

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THE SOLOIST

(Delayed from November '08)

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Reporter (Robert Downey Jr.) discovers musical genius (Jamie Foxx) living on the street. Based on the true story of Nathaniel Anthony Ayers.

WILL IT SUCK?
A lot of cylinders firing here. The storytelling skill of director Joe Wright (Atonement, Pride and Prejudice). The acting chops of the leads, plus support from Catherine Keener and Stephen Root. An adaptation of the book by Steve Lopez (played by Downey) by Susannah Grant (Erin Brokovich, Ever After). The only thing kind of underwhelming so far is the trailer.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If you think your film is an Oscar contender but can't afford to promote it right away, don't move it to the last weekend before summer blockbusters obliterate everything in their sight. $24mil.

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TYSON

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc about Mike Tyson

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sick. Considered by IMDB to be writer/director James Toback's best work. Won the (specially created) Regard Knockout Award at Cannes.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Its biggest competition is the probability that the art house crowd isn't interested in Mike Tyson. $5mil.

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MUTANT CHRONICLES

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Okay, so you've got mutants and it's the future and there are four corporations battling each other and Ron Perlman's gonna save the world somehow.

WILL IT SUCK?
You know those really crappy Sci-Fi (I'm sorry, SyFy) Channel movies that make you amazed that the same network shows Battlestar Galactica? This is getting the buzz of those movies. Only difference is it has, like, John Malkovich in it instead of Stephen Baldwin. Still, not supposed to be a good time.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I'm guessing the VOD release (which happened a month earlier) will fare better. $1mil.

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TREELESS MOUNTAIN

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Two children in Seoul must fend for themselves when their mother leaves to find their dad.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. Won some international kudos at festivals, including Berlin. The performances of the children are supposed to be amazing.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is the kind of movie where lightning has to strike for word of mouth to translate into serious indie box office. $750,000.

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THE INFORMERS

WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Adaptation of a Brett Easton Ellis novel in which rich people behave themselves. Just kidding. More hedonistic bastards in L.A. in the 80's.

WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed and, depending upon whom you believe, that has to do with the director getting replaced midstream. Here's the story (be sure to read the rebuttal from the studio at the end). That having been said, the director has some good experience with satire (Buffalo Soldiers) and Ellis himself contributed to the screenplay (although the screenplay was reportedly gutted - again, read the story). Interesting cast: Billy Bob Thornton, Mickey Rourke and Brad Renfro in what must have been one of his last roles.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A high profile cast, but not a high profile distributor. $2mil.

Next Month: Don't step in front of Christian Bale's lights, motherfucker!