by Dave Thomas
A Serious Man
Is it wrong of me to be more psyched about Black Dynamite than Where the Wild Things Are?
October 2
ZOMBIELAND
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Jesse Eisenberg of the Dead
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Also starring Woody Harrelson, Mila Kunis and Abigail Breslin. Don't know much about the creators, but the trailer's a hoot.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
More Shaun of the Dead than Scream. $18mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Best Zombie Kill. Give it time. The Academy will get there.
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WHIP IT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Ellen Page gets into roller derby.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. The directorial debut of Drew Barrymore. With Alia Shawkat, Kristen Wiig, Zoe Bell, Marcia Gay Harden, and Daniel Stern. And roller derby handles like Malice in Wonderland and Eva Destruction.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Similarly demo'd Fame crashed and burned, but this has more names. $44mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even movies about mainstream sports rarely get a nod.
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CAPITALISM: A LOVE STORY [wide]
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Michael Moore takes on the financial meltdown.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is par for the course for Moore, although on IMDb this is one of his lowest-rated films.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Coming out on a crowded weekend, although I have a feeling that Invention of Lying will actually be this film's biggest competition. By the way, turns out this came out in limited release last week and did the best per screen of any film this year, so, sky's the limit. $40mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
An easy bid for a Best Doc nod.
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THE INVENTION OF LYING
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
In an alternate universe, everyone tells the truth, until one guy (Ricky Gervais) invents the lie.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sick. Gervais co-writes and co-directs, and look at his co-stars: Jason Bateman, Rob Lowe, Tina Fey, Jonah Hill, Christopher Guest, Jeffrey Tambor, Louis C.K., John Hodgman, and Stephen Merchant.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's a ridonculously crowded weekend. And next week the more box-office-friendly Vince Vaughan gives audiences a more well-known option. $26mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If there were ten screenplay nominees, maybe.
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A SERIOUS MAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The trials and tribulations of a put-upon man in 1967 Minnesota.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has this as the Coen Bros'. finest since No Country.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This doesn't have the cast of No Country. This doesn't have the cast of Blood Simple. You might recognize Richard Kind. Still, the Coen Bros. name alone should put butts in seats. $9mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A screenplay nod is not out of the question.
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MORE THAN A GAME
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
LeBron James Begins
WILL IT SUCK?
Credit director Kristopher Belman with wicked sharp foresight. He started filming LeBron and friends when they were in high school. Now all of that footage pays off in what's being hailed as one of the better sports docs in recent memory.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sports docs rarely make money. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Ditto above for Oscar nods.
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AFTERSCHOOL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Some disturbing shit revolving around the violent, drug-related death of two girls at a preppy high school.
WILL IT SUCK?
Been wowing the crowds at several fests since Cannes '08. Early buzz is good, though it is supposed to be a difficult slog.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Hard to build up momentum for something like this. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Will probably fly under the radar.
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October 9
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COUPLES RETREAT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Three couples think they can tag along on the fourth's couples retreat and just enjoy the resort, but the therapy is mandatory - and hilarious!
WILL IT SUCK?
Written by Jon Favreau (Swingers, good), Vince Vaughn (story credit on The Breakup, okay), and Dana Fox (What Happens in Vegas and The Wedding Date, oh, dear). Directed by Ralphie from A Christmas Story, though, so it's got that going for it. Starring Vaughn, Favreau, Jason Bateman, Kristen Bell, Ken Jeong, Jean Reno, John Michael Higgins, and Faizon Love, but apparently, the one to watch (based on past work) is this guy.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Well, everyone else seems to think it will do well. No other film dares open against it. $121mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but a Best Supporting nod for Vaughn in Swingers would have been totally appropriate.
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GOOD HAIR
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Chris Rock doc that takes a look at black hair and how people don't, you know, like it. Especially if they're black.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is fantastic. Won the Special Jury Prize for docs at Sundance. Second funniest trailer I've seen this year (first comes later in the preview).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Chris Rock alone gives it more star power than most indies this week. $13mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Sundance win makes it a little more plausible the Academy will take Hair seriously.
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AN EDUCATION
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Coming-of-age story with a young woman (Carey Mulligan) going out with an older man (Peter Sarsgaard) in 1960's London.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. Won the Audience Award at Sundance. And check out the rest of the cast: Alfred Molina, Emma Thompson, Rosamund Pike, Olivia Williams, and Dominic Cooper. All this and a screenplay from Nick Hornby.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There are going to be a lot of slices of British history this week. This one's probably more of a crowd-pleaser, tho. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Give enough of a push by Sony Pictures Classics, you could see Mulligan up for Actress, and a Screenplay nod for Hornby.
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ST. TRINIAN'S
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Wacky British school for girls vs. mean education minister (Colin Firth).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so good, even with Rupert Everett in drag (he plays the headmistress).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Did great in Britain, but I don't think it will translate. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No.
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BRONSON
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
True life story of a British prisoner who developed an alter ego named Charles Bronson while in solitary. See the trailer, though, since a synopsis won't do this justice.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Seriously, though, check out the trailer and I think you'll have a good idea if the style is drawing you in or not.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Very crowded, and surprisingly British, weekend. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Seems like the guy playing Bronson would have a shot, but nobody will know about this film.
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THE DAMNED UNITED
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The true story of the guy who took over Leeds United in 1974. It's a soccer thing.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding and why not? You've got Peter Morgan writing dialogue for Michael Sheen for the third time (The Queen, Frost/Nixon). You've also got Timothy Spall and Colm Meany up in here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Seriously, does anyone else want to release a British period flick this week, cos I think we could use, like, nine more? $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Sheen could have a shot. We'll see how hard Sony Pictures Classics pushes seeing as they have An Education (another British period flick) coming out this same week!
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TRUCKER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Truck driver (Michelle Monaghan) suddenly has to raise her 11 year old son on the road.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Nice supporting cast with Joey Lauren Adams, Benjamin Bratt, and Nathan Fillion, who is like indie film helper (see Waitress).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
On a less crowded weekend, better. $6mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I hear Monaghan does a bang-up job.
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FREE STYLE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Dirt bike sports flick.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Harry and the Hendersons. Early buzz is not so hot, but iff they made a movie about bigfoot in a dirt bike race, I would so be there.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This sort of family friendly fare seems an odd fit for a platform release, although that worked for Kit Kittredge. This is not Kit Kittredge. (Although it does have some dude from High School Musical). $7mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No.
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October 16
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THE STEPFATHER
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Guy's mom starts going out with this dude but things get sketchy when the neighbor sees the dude's picture on America's Most Wanted and winds up dead. Seriously? America's Most Wanted? Is anyone even trying anymore?
WILL IT SUCK?
Seems about as useless a remake as the version of The Cars' "Drive" that opens the trailer. Or the Prom Night remake the screenwriter penned.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Any real horror fans are will wait for Saw VI next week and any thriller junkies will opt for Law Abiding Citizen. $19mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
We should have a Remake Awards so this can lose it.
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WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Spike Jonze, meet everyone's favorite bedtime story.
WILL IT SUCK?
If anyone can pull this off, it's Jonze. As if to pile on the indie cred, Dave Eggers co-wrote the screeplay with him. Author Maurice Sendak has given the adaptation his blessing.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Astro Boy and Cirque du Freak next week, but this has the better branding. $89mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It's conceivable. Jonze has been to the show before. Screenplay?
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LAW ABIDING CITIZEN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Don't fuck with Gerard Butler.
WILL IT SUCK?
Director F. Gary Gray sure likes him some wronged folks taking on the system (Set It Off, The Negotiator). Writer Kurt Wimmer can be innovative (Equilibrium), or pedestrian (The Recruit), or just plain suck (Ultraviolet). Looks like the combo works here because the early buzz is solid. Plus, Viola Davis as the Mayor of Philadelphia!
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real competition. Biggest other film in the room (Wild Things) appeals to a completely different demo. $58mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Unless this film takes the premise to Collateral levels of quality, not so much.
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NEW YORK, I LOVE YOU
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Whole bunch of short movies that take place in the Big Apple.
WILL IT SUCK?
Concept worked for Paris, je t'aime. Should work here, too (same producers). Directors include Yvan Attal, Allen Hughes, Shekhar Kapur, Mira Nair, Natalie Portman, and Brett Ratner (!), but, surprisingly, no Martin Scorsese or Woody Allen. Cast includes Bradley Cooper, Natalie Portman (not in her own segment), Shia LaBeouf, Orlando Bloom, Christina Ricci, James Caan, Ethan Hawke, John Hurt, Olivia Thirlby, Justin Bartha, Chris Cooper, Andy Garcia, Eli Wallach, and many, many, more.
I feel like the cast might be more impressive this time but the directorial bench isn't as deep.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Plenty of people have been looking forward to this one. $16mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The rules of the Academy weren't built for a film like this.
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BLACK DYNAMITE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
I'm Gonna Git You Sucka but, like, way funnier.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. Trailer is one of the funniest things I've seen all year. Even the ancillary Web site is hilarious. And who can resist a movie where Arsenio Hall plays a character named Tasty Freeze?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Good buzz going back to Sundance, but still a fairly niche appeal. $9mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Seriously, they have to add a Best Trailer category to encourage this kind of thing.
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THE MAID
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A maid who has served the same family for 23 years feels threatened when a younger model steps in.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is strong. Catalina Saavedra, who plays the maid, is supposed to be fantastic.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not going to be able to stand up to New York. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If this were a higher profile (read: English language) film, I could see Saavedra being up for a Best Actress nod. As it is, could be a Best Foreign contender if Chile (or is it Mexico? Co-production, I think) submits it.
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October 23
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SAW VI
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
So that dude who does what Jigsaw used to do continues to do what Jigsaw used to do.
WILL IT SUCK?
So, by now, the Saw franchise is it's own little apprenticeship. The current director, Kevin Greutert, a former editor of the series, is taking over for Darren Lynn Bousman who also used to be on the crew. The co-writers have been doing pen duty since Saw IV, so if you've been enjoying them since then, you're all set.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I criticized Saw V for avoiding the Halloween weekend last year, but now I see the wisdom of that move (see how screwed Zack and Miri was by that timing). This installment, too, avoids that weekend, and has very little in the way of credible competition. However, the series has seen diminishing returns ever since Saw II. $47mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
You know, sometimes it's okay that horror usually gets the shaft at the Oscars.
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CIRQUE DU FREAK: THE VAMPIRE'S ASSISTANT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kid joins the cirus. Oh, and becomes a vampire.
WILL IT SUCK?
I'm going to give director/co-writer Paul Weitz the same In Good Company/About a Boy benefit of the doubt I gave his brother Chris when he directed Golden Compass - and hope for a very different outcome. Doesn't hurt that Brian Helgeland is the other co-writer
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Twilight it ain't, but it is based on a popular teen novel series. $53mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
How awesome would it be if Ken Watanabe lost for The Last Samurai but won for playing Mr. Tall?
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AMELIA
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
American version of Amelie. Nah. Bio-pic of the one Amelia you can think of who'd have a bio-pic.
WILL IT SUCK?
As if Hilary Swank in the lead weren't enough, you've also got Richard Gere, Ewan McGregor, and Christopher Eccleston up in here. Mira Nair directs, and if you haven't seen The Namesake yet, dude, seriously, wtf? The writing gives me pause. Yes Ron Bass wrote Rain Man and Joy Luck Club, but he also had a hand in What Dreams May Come, Swing Vote, and Stepmom. On the other hand, co-writer Anna Hamilton Phelan wrote Gorillas in the Mist, Mask, and Girl, Interrupted, so it might all balance out.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Seems like the first true salvo of the awards season, and not another gold chaser in sight. On the other hand, don't know how interested people are in dear Amelia. $42mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
That's the plan. Look for Picture, Screenplay, Director, maybe Supporting Actor, and, if nothing else, another credible threat Actress nod for Swank.
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ASTRO BOY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Kind of like A.I., but cheerier and based on an old Japanese comic series.
WILL IT SUCK?
Nifty voice cast: Freddie Highmore, Nicolas Cage, Kristen Bell, Charlize Theron, Samuel L. Jackson, Bill Nighy, Donald Sutherland, Nathan Lane, and Eugene Levy. Director did Flushed Away, which was decent enough. Writer did Space Jam which, frankly, I liked, but he also did Pure Luck and some other films we probably shouldn't think about too much if we want to have high hopes.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Cirque du Freak and second frame of Wild Things is a bit of a challenge, but this benefits from being CG and having a soft follow-up weekend. $78mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Bolt, it probably ain't.
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ONG-BAK 2: THE BEGINNING
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Origin story for the guy in part one (and no, his name isn't Ong Bak).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz sez more kicky-punchy than plotty-talky. Not sure that will keep me away. Original was an underseen martial arts gem.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Remember how I said the original was underseen? $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
You know, the Hong Kong film awards have a Best Fight Choreography category. Just saying.
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ANTICHRIST
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Lars von Trier does horror.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good if mixed (shocker - a Lars von Trier film is courting controversy). Actually got an anti-award from Cannes for misogyny. Given his track record, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but it doesn't matter because I'm too much of a wuss for torture porn.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The torture porn crowd and the arthouse crowd have little crossover. $7mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I get the feeling the Academy is over Lars.
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MOTHERHOOD
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Trials and tribulations of a West Village mother (Uma Thurman) trying to land a new job and prep her daughter's sixth birthday party.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed. Director (Katherine Dieckmann) has an interesting background. Directed the "Stand" video. No idea if that has any bearing on this film, but that's kind of neat, huh?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Uma comedies have a hard enough time in wide release. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Don't think this is the one for her (but damn if she shouldn't have gotten some love for Kill Bill).
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(UNTITLED)
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Romantic comedy set in the world of contemporary art.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Adam Goldberg stars and Vinnie Jones is up in here outside his genre wheelhouse, which should be interesting.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Quirky comedy comes in a much more potent form with Gentlemen Broncos the following week. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not especially.
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October 30
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MICHAEL JACKSON'S THIS IS IT (October 28)
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc revolving around rehearsal for the comeback tour that would have been.
WILL IT SUCK?
Not if you're an MJ fan. The director of the High School Musicals is on the job, so he should be able capture the spectacle. This, by the way, is the same guy who's directing the Footloose remake.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As you can imagine, there's not exactly a dearth of interest. $66mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but sadly already wondering if they'll use a Wiz still for the farewell montage since he really wasn't in all that many movies.
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GENTLEMEN BRONCOS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Fading star author (Jemaine Clement) plagiarizes student (Michael Angarano) to get back into the spotlight.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is not so hot. Interested to see what Napoleon Dynamite co-writer/director Jared Hess can bring to the table after Nacho Libre disappointed. Also, Jemaine!
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sort of tailor-made for the indie set. $16mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Am I the only one who would enjoy a Flight of the Conchords hosted Oscars? Probably.
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THE BOONDOCK SAINTS II: ALL SAINTS DAY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
With a film this cultish, the fact that they made a sequel IS the pitch.
WILL IT SUCK?
I'll be honest. Never saw The Boondock Saints. No idea what the buzz is about. I'll tell you one thing about writer/director Troy Duffy, though. He sure is focused. This is the only film he's directed since the original came out ten years ago. Cast has got me curious: Julie Benz, Clifton Collins Jr., Judd Nelson, Peter Fonda, and Billy Connolly.
By the way, never seen a greater disparity between a film's Rotten Tomatoes score (17%) and IMDb score (7.9/10) than with the original.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Often these "long-awaited sequels" aren't as long-awaited as you think. $7mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Part of the appeal of a cult film is that it becomes popular long after it's ineligible for the Academy to ignore it.
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THE HOUSE OF THE DEVIL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
If a couple offers you a babysitting job in a creepy house in the woods...okay, you shouldn't need me to finish that sentence.
WILL IT SUCK?
Writer/director Ti West has already established his indie horror cred with The Roost and Trigger Man and his latest is already garnering praise in part for the fact that it's not only set in the 80's, but hearkens back to that type of horror film as well.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It's a hard world for indie horror. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It's a hard world for indie horror.
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