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THE JUNE MOVIE PREVIEW
The summer movie season kicks into high gear with
well,
it actually doesn't so much as it goes from zero to sixty,
then suddenly sputters along and runs out of gas, only to
get jump-started by a rubbery-looking CGI character at the
end of the month. Read on.
6/4
ZATOICHI
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Beat Takeshi puts the beatdown on some corrupt motherfuckers
as the titular (and legendary) blind swordsman. Serious
ass-kicking ensues, and since you just got beat by a blind
guy, how bad do you feel?
WILL IT SUCK?
Beat Takeshi is, by all accounts, da bomb. I've only seen
one of his movies (it was either "Fireworks" or
"Sonatine," I can't remember which, and that's
probably not a good sign) but his rep precedes him. Here,
as is often the case, he writes, acts, directs and edits.
And this is supposed to be his best work yet. It's already
won a crapload of Japanese Oscars and numerous international
fest plaudits including audience/people's choice awards
at Venice and Toronto. So, no, it probably won't suck.
And there's a musical number or two, apparently.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No real genre competition for miles. "Napoleon Dynamite"
will be a big indie deal the following week, but even that
will only draw part of this audience. However, Beat's flicks
only ever do so well in the States. $1mil.
HARRY POTTER AND THE
PRISONER OF AZKABAN
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Gary Oldman in the hizzy! Oh, and Harry Potter does some
stuff, too, I'm sure.
WILL IT SUCK?
In all likelihood, no. It's got new director Alfonso Cuaron
of "Y Tu Mama Tambien" fame giving it a darker
spin. It's actually not that unusual to have him up in here
given that he's already done a well-received kid's adaptation
- 1995's "A Little Princess." So, no, Harry and
Ron are not gonna go cross country with Professor McGonagall
and, y'know, do things.
Also, you've got the original cast returning (sans Richard
Harris, RIP) along with the aforementioned Oldman, who's
already played one of my favorite villains of all time,
Norm Stansfield in "The Professional." I can already
see him yelling at Harry, "I haven't got time
for
this Mickey Mouse
BULLSHIT!" That would rock.
Let the scenery chewing commence! Emma Thompson also lends
her ample talent.
Finally, the best friend this series has is returning:
Screenwriter/Adaptation Master Steve Kloves, who not only
rocked the first two books but also did a kick-ass adaptation
of "Wonder Boys.".
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not only is the field clear this week (no other wide release
dared open against it), but the rest of the month is bereft
of a true challenger until the very end. However, it's important
to note that Harry 2 did worse than Harry 1. And the new,
darker tone may not be as kid-friendly. On the other hand,
this is the first time a Harry Potter film has been released
in the more target rich summer. So I think you'll see an
upsurge closer to the original Harry numbers. $335mil.
6/11
THE CHRONICLES OF RIDDICK
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The kick-ass hero of "Pitch Black" (Vin Diesel)
returns to fight in an intergalactic war.
WILL IT SUCK?
The trailer looks and feels way too much like a "Dune"
remake with Judi Dench. I'm going to miss the monsters,
which were half the fun of "Pitch Black," and
so far the human villains of this installment don't seem
nearly as interesting. The other half of the fun, of course,
was Riddick himself, one of my favorite anti-heroes of the
past decade. And with the same writer/director controlling
the narrative (David Twohy) I'm instilled with a bit of
confidence. But with the intergalactic pseudo-religious
conflict direction the story is taking, I'm given a lot
of pause.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The worst enemy (besides Harry Potter) this film can have
is itself. This sort of dark fantasy/sci-fi isn't in abundant
supply this month (or this summer, for that matter). "Alien
vs. Predator," the closest thing (to "Pitch Black,
anyway) doesn't come out for another two months. So if the
reviews and word of mouth are good, this should get a decent
haul. If not, kiss the two hypothetical sequels goodbye.
My guess is the reaction will be mixed, at best. $63mil.
GARFIELD: THE MOVIE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Bad Idea Jeans presents a Waste of Bill Murray's Talent.
WILL IT SUCK?
In all likelihood, yes. First of all, it's not written by
Jim Davis, creator of Garfield who also penned the successful
television specials nor did they get any of the writers
behind the television series. These were actually funny
adaptations of the original comic. Instead they've got the
guys behind "Toy Story" (that's good) and "Cheaper
by the Dozen," and "Money Talks" and the
upcoming "Daddy Day Care," (that's not so good).
By the way, about five other guys also wrote "Toy Story."
Casting Bill Murray to voice the fat cat is a master stroke.
He's the king of the understated sarcasm that made Garfield
work so well. Breckin Meyer is also a strong choice as Jon.
However the trailer leads me to believe they're going to
try to "movie up" the premise and make this a
lot cheesier than the original comic or specials ever were.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Tough to say. "Harry Potter" will still be going
strong in its second frame when this opens, sucking away
some of the kiddie crowd. The following week "Around
the World in 80 Days" will do the same. What's more,
this is really more of a name for the parents of the kiddie
crowd. I don't know that "Garfield" has such a
huge pre-teen fan base these days. So if adults are going
to be dragging their kids to see this, it might not be the
same species of draw as a contemporary kiddie fave like
Potter. In any case, we're looking at underwhelming grosses
here. $30mil.
THE STEPFORD WIVES
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
The creepy 70's classic gets retro-fitted as a wacky comedy
with Nicole Kidman in the lead. Next on "Pimp My Opus,"
we take 70's noir "Klute" and turn it into a romantic
comedy with Sandra Bullock.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, perhaps calling the original a "classic"
is taking things a bit far, but it's generally well regarded.
What they're doing to it here, though
may actually
work. The reason I say this is that Frank Oz is a halfway
decent director ("The Dark Crystal," "Bowfinger")
and the last time he worked with screenwriter Paul Rudnick
they produced the enjoyable "In & Out" which
also pointed fun at suburban sensibilities. Only problem
is, this is the same Rudnick that gave us "Marci X"
and "Isn't She Great." (In case you were wondering,
no, she wasn't.) So, though the potential's there, it will
probably be squandered.
Chris Walken will be fun. He's going back up to his 36
films a year quota. And Bette Midler, of all people, looks
like she might actually steal the movie if the trailer's
any indication.
At best this will probably be about as good as Oz's "The
Score" which was far more forgettable than any movie
with Norton, De Niro and Brando should ever be.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It depends upon how well they can market this as an "adult"
comedy to separate it from the pack. Nicole Kidman will
be a nice draw, but Hanks will be a serious draw on a similar
demo the following week, so the best bet for "Wives"
is to open modestly and stick around based on word of mouth.
Unfortunately, I don't think word of mouth will be that
strong. $76mil.
NAPOLEON DYNAMITE
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Rushmore-ish" (from the trailer's vibe, anyway)
look into the life of a quirky teen.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is very good. Looks like it's hitting the right
note with audiences. Fox Searchlight (who had a fantastic
summer last year and is looking to do it again) picked it
up at Sundance to the tune of $3mil. So at least they think
it's cool.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Genre-wise, nothing on the horizon with which to compete.
I don't think this will be the phenom that "Bend It
Like Beckham" was for Searchlight last summer, but
it will multiply their investment, nonetheless. $15mil.
THE
HUNTING OF THE PRESIDENT
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Presidents Bush (W. and Sr.), Clinton, Carter and Reagan
are released into the wild to fend for themselves as Croc
Hunter Steve Irwin stalks them in attempt to bag the most
dangerous game of all - presidential flesh.
Actually it's a doc about the smear campaign against Clinton,
based on the best selling book. But I like my premise better.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is a little mixed with critics citing the somewhat
low rent presentation (think "Hard Copy") but
fascinated by the compelling content. Should be interesting.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No other docs to deal with and there's definitely a market
for right wing conspiracy theories in an election year.
Should do well (for a doc). $1mil.
6/18
AROUND THE WORLD IN 80
DAYS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Steve Coogan and Jackie Chan go around the world meeting
celebrity cameos.
WILL IT SUCK?
I like Steve Coogan. He was great in "24 Hour Party
People" and "Coffee & Cigarettes." But
this ain't them. I love Jackie Chan. Except for the past
two movies he's done which have sucked irredeemably. (Even
"Shanghai Knights" was slipping a little). So
the few cool action sequences which may occur will not make
up for all the Disney cutesiness we'll probably have to
sit through in between. And given that the three guys named
David who wrote this have "Morgan Stewart's Coming
Home" (remember that?) and "Cupid" (not the
tv series) between them, that's probably what we'll get.
Director Frank Coraci brought us "The Wedding Singer"
but he also brought us "The Waterboy," so I'm
not instilled with confidence. And the cameos are cool,
but could be cooler. Anyway, the only reason to see this,
apart from some neat kung fu, will be Luke and Owen Wilson
as the Wright Bros. So wait for the DVD.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nice positioning. It might seem like opening so soon after
"Garfield" might crimp the kiddie-style demographic,
but frankly I think "Garfield" will tank, so the
third frame of Harry Potter is the real threat. But by then,
even the great Potter will have waned enough for this to
get a foothold. I don't think word of mouth will be great,
but it will be enough to get families in theaters, perhaps
more than once. And until "Spiderman" comes out
two weeks later (to the day, this is also getting a head
start on a Wednesday - June 16th), this will more or less
have its run of the young audience. $175mil.
THE TERMINAL
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Spielberg tackles romantic comedy territory again for the
first time since, um, "Always." Again, there are
planes involved. Tom Hanks is an Eastern European stuck
in an American airport when war redraws his homeland right
off the map, invalidating his visa. Based on a true story.
I believe that guy also hooked up with Catherine Zeta Jones.
WILL IT SUCK?
I trust Spielberg with everything
except romantic comedy.
There's a reason he's avoided it for most of his career.
However, he's surprised me in the past, so there's no reason
he can't do that now. (Full disclosure: He's my favorite
director). Also, standby Janusz Kaminski is on board to
bring the phat cinematography (Full disclosure: Favorite
DP). And, of course, Hanks is Hanks. Stanley Tucci is a
nice touch as his foil.
Really saving this from early dismissal is the screenwriting
team of Andrew Niccol, Jeff Nathanson, and Sacha Gervasi.
The latter's a relative newcomer, but the first two have
"The Truman Show" and "Catch Me If You Can"
between them. So I'm hopeful, but it's a reserved kind of
hopeful.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There's no direct competition, but Spielberg's true blockbuster
days are mostly behind him. Even "Minority Report,"
which had the genre and the star to be a huge hit couldn't
deliver like a "Raiders" or an "E.T."
(Of course, all that could change with "Indy 4: Indiana
Jones and the Condo in Florida") And Tom Hanks is a
draw, but even he couldn't turn "Ladykillers"
into a smash. Catherine Zeta Jones might still have some
heat from her Oscar win
two years ago.
So it's one of the first times in recent memory I really
think it'll be an uphill battle for a Spielberg film, much
less a Spielberg/Hanks collaboration. Still it is Spielberg
and it is Hanks, so I'll only lowball a little. "Around
the World" will make its money faster, but this'll
make just a little more over the long haul. $185mil.
DODGEBALL: A TRUE UNDERDOG
STORY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Like some sort of USA Up All Night Movie, a group of losers
pulls together to save their gym from being taken over by
a corporation by playing in a dodgeball tournament. Okay,
if it had been a USA Up All Night Movie it would have been
a car wash and the group of losers would have been buxom
blondes, but you get the idea.
WILL IT SUCK?
Great cast. Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughan, Christine Taylor,
Justin Long (arguably the funniest guy on "Ed"),
William Shatner (!), Jason Bateman and the "Office
Space" contingent of Gary Cole and Stephen Root. Also,
good writer/director: Rawson Marshall Thurber (sounds like
he should be writing loquacious novels about the South)
wrote and directed the "Terry Tate: Office Linebacker"
commercials that made Superbowl XXXVII slightly less crushingly
dull. I think he can handle full contact comedy. The only
question is can he do it for the full ninety?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If box office receipts for "Old School" and "Starsky
& Hutch" are any indication, Vince Vaughan is back
like a mofo. There was a lull after "Swingers"
but now he's claiming his crown. Ben Stiller is hit or miss
(for every "Starsky" there's an "Envy")
but the real challenge here is the release date. It's not
that another straight comedy is coming out this week, it's
just that everything else will draw tangentially on this
audience.
Between "Around" and "Terminal" the
adults, teens and children are more or less spoken for.
This will get their table scraps. They'd be in much better
shape opening next week when NOTHING is opening. Maybe they'll
move it. In any case, good word of mouth could set them
up to take advantage of that weekend anyway, it's just harder
to stay in theaters during the summer. The more likely outcome
is that this will have a very successful DVD release in
the fall. $49mil.
DARKNESS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
"Cold Creek Manor" with teens.
WILL IT SUCK?
The early buzz is fairly good. Anna Paquin usually makes
strong choices, and here she stars with Lena Olin, who I'm
told is quality. It's been nominated for a few international
awards. It should be noted, however, that this has been
moving around for two years before its pick up and release
by Dimension. Don't know how long it took for them to pick
it up, but it doesn't seem like they were in a hurry to
release it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Limited release or not (no one seems sure which this will
go for) there's very little horror this summer, arguably
none besides this. On the other hand, this isn't exactly
high profile. Remember, it's been around for two years and
you're probably just hearing about it now. Dimension, being
a division of Miramax, should be able to get the marketing
machine going in time, but so far they've been slacking.
I'd be surprised if this opens well and more surprised to
see it last long. $13mil. (Not half that if it opens limited).
FACING WINDOWS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Part two in the riveting home improvement trilogy. Preceded
by "Sliding Doors" and followed by "Reclining
Sofas."
Or
Poultry inspector brings home some disoriented old guy
he found on the street and though the inspector makes all
sorts of promises, don't you know it's his wife who ends
up having to take care of the geezer? Then she gets tempted
to have an affair. Caring for the elderly has that effect,
I hear.
WILL IT SUCK?
This has won numerous international awards, including four
Davids. They're like the Italian Oscars. No, really. I call
them the Me's. Anyway, this won a Me for Best Picture, Actor,
Actress and Sound. So expect the sound to kick ass. Reviews
are good and early audience buzz is very strong. And if
you wanna see if Raoul Bova can really act before he gets
gobbled up or shot in "Alien vs. Predator," check
him out here as the extra-marital love interest.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
In its opening weekend, before a glut of pseudo-romantic
adult fare invades the multiplexes, this is pretty much
the one shot people over the age of five will get to see
a nuanced drama about human relationships, so of course
it will suffer. Actually, this is the sort of thing, like
"Chocolat," that spun correctly (in the hands
of Miramax, say) can catch quite well. In the summer, though,
with Sony Pictures Classics (who are good, but not as good
as the Weinsteins) doing the backing, I doubt if this'll
perform as well. $3mil.
6/25
WHITE CHICKS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Two lesser Wayans (Marlon & Shawn) play FBI agents who
disguise themselves as the title to protect hotel heiresses.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, never mind the rich tradition of undercover comedies
("Miss Congeniality," "Kindergarten Cop,"
"Big Momma's House"). Let's look at the fact that,
for my money, director Keenan Ivory Wayans hasn't directed
a really solid comedy since "I'm Gonna Git You Sucka."
And of the six (!) screenwriters, none have written anything
good since, well, "I'm Gonna Git You Sucka."
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
For all the sucking, those undercover comedies tend to do
well, as do many Wayans projects. Add the fact that the
only other comedy in view is "Dodgeball," which
will draw on a different audience. And the fact that this
is coming out on what could easily be considered the weakest
weekend in an already weak summer. Finally, they get a two-day
head start since this comes out on a Wednesday. Properly
hyped, this stands to make a killer opening weekend followed
by a supremely lackluster follow-up when word-of-mouth and,
oh, "Spider-Man 2" kick in the following week.
$77mil.
Oh, and in case you were worried, there IS in fact a "Big
Momma's House 2" in the works. I know you'll sleep
easier now.
THE NOTEBOOK
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Romance told in flashback between a couple who meets before
and after WWII.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, this comes from the novelist who gave us "A Walk
to Remember" and "Message in a Bottle," but
that's not what should make you nervous. Nor should the
fact that the director's last effort was "John Q."
No, what should make you nervous is that the screenwriter
unleashed "The Horror of Bagger Vance" and "Alex
and Emma" on us in the past. Alas the great Ryan Gosling
and Joan Allen are probably gonna get squandered here, as
the advance buzz is underwhelming.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
As the only romance opening in wide release this weekend,
this might do okay. Except for the fact that "The Terminal"
will be in its second frame and a week later "Before
Sunset" will open to (most likely) much better reviews.
So the audience will be a little romance-starved, but with
the word-of-mouth this will most likely receive, not that
starved. $10mil.
TWO BROTHERS
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Two tigers are separated as cubs and reunited after WWII
no,
wait, just the cubs and the reuniting later in life. No
war. I mean, they fight, but not with guns.
WILL IT SUCK?
While the trailer leaves me thinking I'll spend most of
the movie wondering, "Should they really let a child
stand that close to an untrained tiger?" I have to
admit to kind of a soft spot for director Jean Jacques Annaud,
and it's not just because he has a copy of my first short
lying around his office somewhere. Okay, maybe it's mostly
that but I really liked "The Bear" and even "Enemy
at the Gates" (though I'll be the first to admit it
suffers a little upon repeat viewings).
In any case, he's working with the same writers here, himself
and Alain Godard who are credited with the "scenario,"
whatever the hell that is. Guy Pearce, who plays a guy who
sets the tigers at each other's throats, is almost always
fun to watch, unless he's in a big bowl of suck like "The
Time Machine," but the early buzz on this is pretty
good. The one complaint seems to be that the story is thin.
Not surprising when you consider that all they had to go
on was a "scenario." No, really, what the fuck
does that mean?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I have to admit, I'm kind of surprised they're opening this
wide. It's not in a good position. I mean, it could pick
up some kids, but in between "Around the World in 80
Days" and "Spider-Man 2," it's kind of begging
to be squashed. I'm thinking this would be a better indie
fit, like "The Bear," which ended up grossing
mad bones worldwide. $19mil.
THE
DOOR IN THE FLOOR
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Based on John Irving's "A Widow for One Year,"
children's storybook writer (Jeff Bridges) hires an assistant
who doesn't help so much as he sleeps with Jeff's wife (Kim
Basinger). Of course, Jeff's no prize, philanderer that
he is. But you can't blame the couple. They just lost their
sons, one of whom resembles this new guy, making his affair
with Kim kind of
oh, John, you scamp!
WILL IT SUCK?
John Irving can make for good cinema ("The Cider House
Rules") or not so much ("The Hotel New Hampshire")
but there's no telling, really, where this is gonna go.
The writer/director has one other film to his credit, "The
Adventures of Sebastian Cole," which remains without
anything remotely resembling a critical consensus. Even
the stars could go either way.
Early buzz, what little of it there is, is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Riddle me this, Batman: Why is this in limited release while
"The Notebook" is opening wide? The audiences
aren't all that different, and Jeff Bridges and Kim Basinger
are bigger names than James Garner and Ryan Gosling. In
any case, this will likely have the advantage of better
reviews but the disadvantage of fewer theaters while still
vying for the same audience. Even "Facing Windows"
might be a bit of a drain from the week before.
But its biggest competition will come from "De-Lovely,"
also inexplicably in limited release and with arguably bigger
appeal (Who has more fans: Cole Porter or John Irving? Kevin
Kline or Jeff Bridges? Tough, huh?) Anyway, without that
competition, a groundswell of support could keep it in indie
theaters for a successful platform release. With that competition,
not so much. At least they have a two-day head start (opens
on Wednesday with "White Chicks"). $12mil.
DE-LOVELY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
A musical look back at the life and times of composer Cole
Porter (Kevin Kline)
WILL IT SUCK?
Cole Porter is, without a doubt, one of the best songwriters
of all time. For me, from that style, it's Gershwin and
Porter before anyone else. That doesn't however ensure a
good movie. It doesn't hurt to have Elvis Costello, Diana
Krall, Alanis Morissette (!) and others singing his tunes
in numbers throughout the film, even if it does make it
feel like A Very Special Episode of "American Dreams."
It also doesn't hurt that this'll be his first bio-pic that
doesn't shy away from his homosexuality. And strange as
it may sound, it's nice to see Ashley Judd not kicking someone's
ass. And Kevin Kline can carry a movie like no one's business.
On the other hand, director Irwin Winkler did subject us
to "The Net" and "At First Sight," but
his last collaboration with Kline was the acclaimed "Life
as a House," so all is not lost. Screenwriter Jay Cocks
is among the four-hundred-eighty-six credited authors of
"Gangs of New York," but there are worse things
to have on your resumé.
Early buzz is mixed, though mostly positive.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This has about as good a chance as any of the glut of "adult"
fare that's been crammed into this weekend. Maybe more with
the Cole/Kline following. MGM/UA aren't bad people to have
in your corner when your film is only an indie. They'll
have more advertising muscle than most of the competition.
$16mil.
KAENA: THE PROPHECY
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
French CGI cartoon space opera about a giant tree.
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, it's got Kristen Dunst who, as it turns out, is a
veteran of foreign animation voiceover, having done some
work for Hayao Miyazaki back in the day. It also boasts
Anjelica Huston and the last performance of Richard Harris.
The next most notable bit, for my money, is the voice work
of "Whose Line" vet Greg Proops. Other than that,
there's not much to recommend this except for the half of
the buzz that's good. The other half, not so much.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Without major Oscar buzz (à la "Triplets of
Belleville" or "Spirited Away," which also
benefited from a major Disney push), it's very hard for
a foreign animated flick to do well. $2mil.
THE INTENDED
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
More white folks going into the jungle and losing their
minds. This time it's Janet McTeer (Remember her? No? She
was only nominated for a freakin' Oscar! It was only four
years ago, people! No, I don't remember her, either.) going
into the jungles of Malaysia with her fiancée and
running into an ivory trader and the trader's nutty family.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is from "The King is Alive" director Kristian
Levring so expect this to be Dogme-licious. The early buzz
is actually pretty bad, though.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Dogme (or "Dogme-inspired" as is the case here)
films tend not to do very well unless they have the name
Lars Von Trier attached, and even then it's a crapshoot.
$200,000.
6/30
I debated saving this last one until next month, but the
purist in me can't ignore the fact that, technically, it's
a June release
SPIDER-MAN 2
WHAT'S THE PITCH?
Doc Oc like a motherfucker! Oh, and Spider-Man does some
stuff, too, I'm sure.
WILL IT SUCK?
Not bloody likely. You've got Doc Oc played by none other
than Alfred Molina who, with "Frida" and a small
role in "Coffee & Cigarettes," is proving
to be a multi-talented actor and more than a match for Tobey.
All the main players are back, including J.K. Simmons as
the best darned J. Jonah Jameson you'll ever see and the
obligatory (but welcome) Bruce Campbell cameo, which means
Raimi, the master, is back as well.
Add to that an army of kick-ass writers: Alfred Gough and
Miles Millar, who just brought us one of the most surprisingly
excellent seasons of television this year with the latest
Smallville run, are on board along with Michael Chabon (and,
yes, "The Adventures of Kavalier and Clay" is
in pre-production with no less than "The Hours"
Stephen Daldry at the helm). In addition, Alvin "Ordinary
People," "Straight Time" Sargent brings the
darkness. He also gets the official screenplay credit (the
others have "screen story" credit - the most half-assed
title I've ever seen, except, of course, for "scenario").
To be honest, though, Spidey's CGI still looks kinda rubbery
to me.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Obviously this will own its weekend. Unlike "Shrek
2" or Potter, other studios are taking their chances
opening against this with counter-programming like "Before
Sunset" and "The Clearing," but it won't
matter. What will matter is that, also in contrast to "Shrek
2" or Potter, Spidey faces a slew of high-profile,
similar-audience-grabbing competitors in the following weeks.
First up to bat will be "King Arthur," which,
despite it's relatively B-list cast, should not be underestimated.
At the same time Will Ferrell, who took down "The Matrix
Revolutions" (although that arguably took itself down)
last November with "Elf," returns with "Anchorman."
The next week Will Smith throws his hat in with "I,
Robot," which if it were anything like its source material
would be drawing a very different crowd, but we'll get into
that next month. And not to give away the whole farm, but
"The Bourne Supremacy" and "The Village"
won't make things any easier as the month winds down.
I bring all this up to point out that even with this very
stiff competition, I believe Spidey will come out of this
with the best summer b.o. It's just not going to be a turkey
shoot, is all. As a result, it will not outperform the first
one quite as much as you might expect. $422mil.
Next month
well, I guess I just pretty much told you
about next month, but come back anyway. I'll make up some
movies. Like "Hoobastank: I Am Trying to Break Your
Heart" or "Banana Nut Crunch: The Movie"
or, no, wait, get this, Halle Berry as "Catwoman."
How crazy would that be?
- Dave Thomas
http://travelindave.blogspot.com
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