October 2006 Movie Preview

by Dave Thomas

It’s time to get your horror on. You won’t go one weekend this month without either a hillbilly cannibal, creepy Japanese kid, booby-trap-happy psycho or, worst of all, a Flicka remake.
October 6
THE TEXAS CHAINSAW MASSACRE: THE BEGINNING
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Leatherface Begins
WILL IT SUCK?
Well, you’ve got the director of Darkness Falls and the writer behind The Longest Yard remake. I’m not sure who appears to be less qualified here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Serious competition. Employee of the Month will hit nearly the same demo, as will Grudge 2 the following week. Still, this has the name recognition going back further than either. $81mil
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Most Pointlessly Restricted Trailer. When the teaser first appeared on the film’s Web site, you could only watch it between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. It was approved for general audiences!
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THE DEPARTED
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Scorsese remakes Infernal Affairs with Jack Nicholson, Leo DiCaprio and Matt Damon.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is ve-he-ery good, and why not? I’ll tell you why not. In spite of Scorsese and Nicholosn and DiCaprio and Damon (and Martin Sheen, Ray Winstone, Mark Whalberg, Anthony Anderson and Alec Baldwin), this is from the screenwriter behind Kingdom of Heaven which, while not being Sorority Boys is still, y’know, Kingdom of Heaven. Regardless, everyone seems to have brought their A-game.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
They’ve front-loaded the hell out of the cast and come about as close as you can get to a bankable Scorsese film on this one. $78mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Early buzz would indicate yes. And it’s no coincidence that the unprecedented direction of Nicholson by Scorsese is generating some of that buzz. Of course, both the Academy and the Director’s Guild have been nothing but teases to Scorsese so far, so look for nods without satisfaction.

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ALEX RIDER: OPERATION STORMBREAKER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
British Agent Cody Banks
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, but you have to hand it to the casting — most eclectic bunch (until Bobby comes out later). Ewan McGregor, Mickey Rourke, Bill Nighy, Sophie Okonedo, Alicia Silverstone, Missi Pyle, Sarah Bolger, Damian Lewis, Robbie Coltrane, Stephen Fry and Andy Serkis as Mr. Grin.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Ah, the kids. The kids are gonna go see Texas Chainsaw or Employee of the Month. $8mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but when is Sophie Okonedo gonna get another good role?
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EMPLOYEE OF THE MONTH
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dane Cook tries to become the alpha male for Jessica Simpson by becoming the title.
WILL IT SUCK?
Here’s the thing. Dane cook is a very funny man. However, I don’t think his comedy will translate into actual situations. Half the fun of watching his stand up is watching him invent from nothing. In the actual situation, I doubt half his stories would seem as funny. That having been said, the director/co-writer co-wrote Sorority Boys, so I’m sure we have nothing to worry about.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Normally I’d say this is a lock, but it’s looking like there’s a little bit of Cook backlash going on, because the advance enthusiasm for this flick seems to be down. $40mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but I’d love to see Cook present.
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…SO GOES THE NATION
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Remember that whole election thing back in ’04, especially — what’s that state? oh, yeah — Ohio? Yeah. It’s about that.
WILL IT SUCK?
It may seem like a bit of a stretch for directors Adam Del Deo and James D. Stern to go from Year of the Yao to this, but early word has it that this is fair and balanced, and not in a Fox News kind of way.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With the exception of An Inconvenient Truth, political docs have just not been hot this year. Of course, a story about elections could hardly be better timed. $250,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Has about as good a chance as any political doc this year.
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October 13
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THE GRUDGE 2
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Grudge, Too
WILL IT SUCK?
Pretty much the same team as before, with Amber Tamblyn taking over for Sarah Michelle Gellar, who dies in, like, the first ten minutes (not a spoiler – watch the trailer). How cool would it be if they were sisters in TV life? Joan of Arcadia/Buffy crossover. Now that I’d watch.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Has to deal with Texas‘ second frame, but this has the advantage of being PG-13. $101mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but how creepy would it be if naked albino Japanese ghost children showed up every now and then? “And the award for best costume design goes to — Holy shit! What the fuck was THAT?!?!” I really hope they do that now.
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MAN OF THE YEAR
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
What would happen if Jon Stewart ran for President and won — except that I think that Jon Stewart is actually funnier than Robin Williams, who’s playing the Jon Stewart role here.
WILL IT SUCK?
This film’s closest analogues are Good Morning Vietnam and Wag the Dog, as both were, like this film, directed by Barry Levnison and featured politics and/or Robin Williams. Barry did not write either of those films. He did, however, write this one and, um, Toys which also starred Robin Williams, but he also wrote Diner and Avalon. I guess what I’m saying here is that the jury’s still out.
What really gives me hope is seeing Williams on The Daily Show a while back. Once he started talking politics, he was on a roll. Like most comedians, the more he cares about a topic, the better he is. I almost wish they’d just release another Evening with Robin Williams instead. Chris Rock is a fantastic political comedian, but that didn’t make Head of State any better.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Williams may not be the draw he once was, but if all he’s gotta compete with is Dane Cook, there’s a whole generation who doesn’t even know who that is. $72mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Barry may direct Robin to another nod someday, but not today.
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THE MARINE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
John Cena vs. Robert Patrick. Now does that really seem fair?
WILL IT SUCK?
It should be no surprise that the next breed of action hero is coming out of the WWE. Not that that’s happened yet. Or will. I mean, you’ve got The Rock and…um…Kane? At least Robert Patrick looks like he’s having fun.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This will all come down to Cena’s following. $16mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I’m not sure they’ll remember it after they leave the theater.
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INFAMOUS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Capote, Too.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, with critics disdaining it more than audiences, but few are comparing it favorably to that other film.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There’s not much competition, but there’s not much desire to see this story retold, either. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It would have to get muuuuuch better reviews to stand out against its predecessor.
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DRIVING LESSONS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ron Weasley and Maude
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, and the writer (who directs for the first time here) also wrote The Last King of Scotland, which is also getting love. And I wasn’t kidding about that Weasley crack. Grint’s mom in Potter-ville (Julie Walters) plays Maude to his Harold here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Potter crowd and the indie crowd, not so much the same. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If the film does better than I suspect, Walter’s performance could get some notice.
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October 20
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FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Story of the photograph that changed the course of WWII. Well, at least according to the trailer.
WILL IT SUCK?
This project just keeps unfolding like a flower. First, you get Eastwood and Spielberg co-producing, with Eastwood helming. Throw in Paul Haggis and William Broyles, Jr. on pens. Then let drop with a sequel of sorts, the same story told from the Japanese point of view, Letters from Iwo Jima, due to come out in December. Finally, throw in an ad campaign that makes it seem like the photo kept us in a war that was growing increasingly unpopular for our own good. Given the progressiveness of so many aspects of this project, the latter part seems like a marketing decision.
The short version is, Eastwood’s on a tear right now, and the last time he teamed with Haggis, we got Million Dollar Baby.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Prestige is probably it’s biggest competition, but that just doesn’t have the same Support Our Troops feel. $101mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Normally here I’d just say, “Remember the part about the last time Eastwood teamed with Haggis?” However, if Letters really does come out in December, all bets are off, because who knows how the Academy will parse that.
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THE PRESTIGE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Batman and Wolverine play dueling magicians.
WILL IT SUCK?
This is from Christopher Nolan, who doesn’t suck. If that weren’t enough, David Bowie plays Tesla (the scientist, not the band, though that would be pretty awesome, too).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Flags will not be kind, but this has a hot cast and fans of Batman Begins have to be happy about the reteaming of Bale, Nolan and Caine. $68mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
While this doesn’t feel like Oscar bait, there are certainly enough worthy actors to make a go of it.
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THE NIGHTMARE BEFORE CHRISTMAS — 3-D
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Same as before, but you wear glasses this time.
WILL IT SUCK?
I think you pretty much know already whether or not you like the movie. The only question is whether or not it will be enhanced by a 3-D re-mastering, although they apparently messed with the soundtrack, too, which makes me nervous. What little I’ve seen of the new wave of 3-D in general is pretty damn impressive, so it’ll probably be worth it, especially since the glasses finally look cool.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Flicka‘s a bit of an issue, but the real problem is that, by nature, this is kind of a limited release. Still, a lot of parents are going to want their kids to see this. $26mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Are re-releases even eligible? If so, I think Gone With the Wind would have a lot more Oscars.
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MARIE ANTOINETTE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kirsten Dunst as the famous queen, with an 80′s new wave soundtrack.
WILL IT SUCK?
In the greatest of ironies, the movie that was famously panned at Cannes was nominated for that festival’s Palme D’Or and won that festival’s Cinema Prize of the French National Education System. All other buzz is equally promising. Writer/director Sofia Coppola won a lot of good will with Lost in Translation, so I’m pot committed to at least her next two films.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Some of these movies really oughtta move to next weekend, which has been virtually evacuated for Saw III. In this case, though, I think the limited releases indie route would be more advantageous. Still, there is that good will thing I mentioned before. $35mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think some Geisha-style nods (Costume, Art Direction) aren’t out of line, but a second directing or writing nod might be a bit much to ask. Dunst is, however, on the medium-list for Best Actress.
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FLICKA
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
As in My Friend…
WILL IT SUCK?
And how. The writers did another couple of animal flicks — Mighty Joe Young and Planet of the Apes. And if you’re still not convinced, they also did Mercury Rising, The Beverly Hillbillies and Superman IV. Incidentally, if you ever wondered what they had to put in the credits if animals were harmed during the making, it’s something like the film included “an at-risk segment unauthorized by American Humane, resulting in injury or death of an animal,” which PETA wants put in due to a couple on set accidents that resulted in just that, except that the AHA was on hand.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s not so much competition as a lack of awareness that might hurt this film. $12mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Alison Lohman could not get nods for White Oleander or Matchstick Men, she ain’t getting one for this.
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RUNNING WITH SCISSORS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Adaptation of the best-selling Augusten Burroughs novel about a kid who grows up raised by his mother’s therapist.
WILL IT SUCK?
Do you like Nip/Tuck, cos’ the writer/director done did a lot of that. His next film is called Why Can’t I Be Audrey Hepburn, which makes me smile.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is arguably the second biggest indie release of the month, what with the property, Annette Bening, Brian Cox, Alec Baldwin, Gwyneth Paltrow and Evan Rachel Wood and the heat on tell-alls right now (although that last part is largely hype, imho). $16mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Look for Adaptation, and some supporting nods for Bening, Wood, Cox, Baldwin and possibly Joseph Fiennes.
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SLEEPING DOGS LIE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Woman shares a dirty secret with her fiancé which, if you were paying any attention at all during Sundance, you already know what it is.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is kind of “meh,” which is a step up from Bob Goldthwait’s last writing/directing gig, Shakes the Clown.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t know that it’s improved its station all that much by moving here from last month. $3mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
There is no category for this secret.
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October 27
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SAW III
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Jigsaw gives it all up to compete in a pie-making contest. Just kidding, he tortures a bunch of fuckers, like usual.
WILL IT SUCK?
Interesting pedigree here. James Wan, director and co-writer of the original Saw is back as a co-writer with Darren Lynn Bousman, director of the sequel, back at the helm. The consistent thread here is co-writer Leigh Wannell, who worked on all three. All of this means that this one will probably be no better or worse than the other two.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Borat maybe poses a threat the following week, but, let’s be honest, there’s a reason they greenlit a sequel during Saw II‘s opening weekend. $105mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but Tobin Bell is one helluva character actor.
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CATCH A FIRE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like a South African In the Name of the Father, if Daniel Day Lewis had decided to join the IRA after getting out of prison.
WILL IT SUCK?
After a kick-ass 2002 (Rabbit Proof Fence and The Quiet American), Philip Noyce disappeared off the radar. Now he’s back with Tim Robbins and Derek Luke in a story that smacks of more of his now trademark political tension. I’d be more nervous about the fact that the writer’s previous credit is Captain Corelli’s Mandolin if it weren’t for the strong buzz this has received.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’m not sure how many people will be turned off by the trailer, which is vaguely terrorist-recruit-y, and the title, which makes it sound like a sports film, but the bigger concern is that not very many people know about this to begin with. $19mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Overdue nods for Luke and Noyce are a possibility. Seriously, how did Luke get overlooked for Friday Night Lights?
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BABEL
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
It all starts with two kids and a gun. Next thing you know there’s an international incident and several misunderstandings and tragedies that could probably be averted if we all spoke the same language.
WILL IT SUCK?
Probably not. Early buzz is good. Apparently this is one of the few films to make it through the festival circuit unscathed this year. Plus, we’re talking Alejandro Gonz√°lez I√±√°rritu here, son. That’s Amores Perros. That’s 21 Grams. Same writer, too. Plus, he’s back with Gael Garcia Bernal and you know what happens when he gets his act on. Oh, and they kind of liked it at Cannes.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The indie race starts to heat up here. You’ve got the second frame of Running, the first frame of President and, the following week, the best-buzzed Almodovar film in years. But this film has something none of those other indies has. Brad Fucking Pitt. Still, it’ll be tight. $22mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Bernal and Inarritu could be in for some Academy lovin’.
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DEATH OF A PRESIDENT
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Fake doc about the assassination of George W. Bush. Yeah, I’m sure that won’t be controversial at all.
WILL IT SUCK?
Giddy as the prospect might make some, the early buzz isn’t so great.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Without a critical concensus, it’s going to be hard justifying this as anything but catharsis, which will be good for a few bucks, but won’t make for a long run. $2mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Since this was originally a British TV-movie, I’m not sure it’s eligible, but even if it were, it’s probably a little too hot for the Academy.
Next Month: Borat, James Bond and Tenacious D. Plus, a new film from that Aaronofsky kid.
—Dave Thomas

Related posts:

1. January 2006 Movie Preview
2. May 2006 Movie Preview
3. The August 2006 Movie Preview
4. The September 2006 Movie Preview
5. The October 2005 Movie Preview

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