The July 2009 Movie Preview

by Dave Thomas

Humpday
Comedy continues to dominate, with Big New Releases from Sacha Baron Cohen and Judd Apatow, though Harry Potter will pwn the month.
July 3
PUBLIC ENEMIES
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Melvin Purvis (Christian Bale) vs. John Dillinger (Johnny Depp).
WILL IT SUCK?
Gotta say I agree with the choice of director. Michael Mann (who co-writes) made his bones on cops and robbers. One of his co-writers, Ann Biderman, also has some good crime under her belt (Primal Fear, Copycat). Cast doesn’t exactly suck, with Billy Crudup, Marion Cotillard, Rory Cochrane and Lili Taylor thrown into the mix.
Early buzz is good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s Purvis vs. Dillinger, not Batman vs. Jack Sparrow. Ice Age will pull any demo that might otherwise make that mistake. $78mil.
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ICE AGE: DAWN OF THE DINOSAURS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In case you were wondering, yes, they do have a plausible explanation for dinosaurs being around during the Ice Age. Well, an explanation, anyway.
WILL IT SUCK?
Co-director of the original and director of the sequel is back, along with writers from the original plus Simpsons vet Mike Reiss. So there’s hope. Also Simon Pegg joins the voice cast, and that’s always fun.
Early buzz is meh.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Ice Age movies are only getting bigger grosses, but this is the first time they’ve launched in the summer. 2nd frame of Transformers is nothing to sneeze at, but at least there’s a cushion of a weekend before Harry Potter hits. $205mil.
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I HATE VALENTINE’S DAY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
How to Lose a Guy in Five Dates
WILL IT SUCK?
Wasn’t Nia Vardolos just in a romantic comedy? This one has more in common with Big Fat Greek however, given that she wrote it and co-stars with her Greek co-star John Corbett. Also her directorial debut. And how they kept Judah Friedlander out of the trailer is beyond me. Vardolos penning the screenplay tips the odds in favor of not suck.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Meh returns for Ruins bode poorly for this. $10mil.
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THE GIRL FROM MONACO
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy falls for girl and his bodyguard gets involved somehow.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is meh. From writer/director Anne Fontaine whose Coco Chanel biopic starring Audrey Tatou has yet to hit the States. This is considered her least impressive work by IMDb’ers. (The Chanel pic, btw, is considered her best).
Co-written by Benoit Graffin, which I only bring up because he also wrote Priceless (also w/ Tatou), which you should go see now.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Likely to be overshadowed. $750,000.
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July 10
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BRÜNO
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
If Borat were gay, and made a lot of the same people uncomfortable.
WILL IT SUCK?
Pretty much the same team here as Borat, and the trailer has that same so-wrong-but-so-funny feel. Early footage screened at SXSW apparently went over well, though I somehow missed it.
Early buzz is solid.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably won’t have the same impact as Borat, which was a surprise, but still well-positioned. $96mil.
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I LOVE YOU, BETH COOPER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy falls for Hayden Panettiere (cos, well, that’s what you do). Night of his life ensues.
WILL IT SUCK?
I give director Chris Columbus some credit ever since he delivered two knockout Harry Potters. And the writer penned some decent Simpsons fare. Plus, it’s based on the writer’s own novel, an exceedingly rare occurrence in teen comedies.
By the way, how weird is it that Alan Ruck is now playing the dad in a teen comedy?
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will get a snippet of the Panettiere fan base before Harry Potter swoops them up next week. $33mil.
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HUMPDAY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ben and Andrew Make a Porno
WILL IT SUCK?
This is one of dem dere mumblecore films, in spite of the high concept. Buzz is mad good. Considered one of the more accessible of its ilk.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Good buzz going back to Sundance, so should open well. Faces (500) Days of Summer next week, tho. $1mil.
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BLOOD: THE LAST VAMPIRE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Japanese Blade
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From the director of Kiss of the Dragon and the writer of Jet Li’s Fearless. So probably good action and better-than-average script, but the trailer and fx still look cheesy.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Indie horror/action rarely hits until DVD. $1mil.
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SOUL POWER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
You’ve probably heard of the Rumble in the Jungle; but what about the three day concert that preceded it?
WILL IT SUCK?
Early reviews are mixed, with some rhapsodic about documentation of the historic concert with James Brown, Celia Cruz, B.B. King, The Spinners, Bill Withers and more, while others cry missed opportunity over ground they feel was better covered in When We Were Kings.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You can’t argue with the cast. $2mil.
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July 17
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HARRY POTTER AND THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Voldemort Begins
WILL IT SUCK?
Probably not. You’ve got David Yates back, and while he’s not my fave HP director, the return of Steve Kloves to screenplay duty should more than make up for that. Other than that, you’ve got Jim Broadbent added to an already magnificent cast and one of the most consistent franchises in movie history.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nicely distanced from anything that could provide a challenge (namely, Transformers). $295mil.
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(500) DAYS OF SUMMER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A year and a half in the life of the cutest indie couple ever (Joseph Gordon-Levitt & Zooey Deschanel).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Kind of makes you forget the screenwriters co-wrote Pink Panther 2. Plus, love me some Joe Gordon-Levitt.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Buzz has been building since Sundance, and upbeat (or at least sold as relatively upbeat) indie comedies are pretty box-office-flammable. $18mil.
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July 24
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G-FORCE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
It’s kind of like Quantum of Solace if James Bond were a bunch of computer-generated guinea pigs.
WILL IT SUCK?
When Ted Elliot and Terry Rossio (Pirates trilogy) get together with Cormac and Marianne Wibberly (Sequelae to Bad Boys and Charlie’s Angels), your get National Treasure: Book of Secrets which, frankly, was kind of fun. Still not interested. (I have to wonder, though, will this be the closest I ever get to my dream of Bill Nighy playing a Bond villain?)
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
On the heels of Beverly Hills Chihuahua and Bolt, Hotel for Dogs fell flat on its face, so it’s hard to say that cute furries are a lock. Further problematized by Aliens in the Attic coming out the following week. Still, I’m going to bet high. $102mil.
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THE UGLY TRUTH
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
How to Get a Guy in Ten Days
WILL IT SUCK?
Do 21, Monster-in-Law and Win a Date With Tad Hamilton cancel out Legally Blonde, cos that’s what we’re dealing with directorially here? The writing team behind Blonde, not to mention 10 Things I Hate About You and Ella Enchanted are also up in here, so there’s hope.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Romcom well running a little dry at this point in the season, so there’s a window. $77mil.
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ORPHAN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Oh, here’s your problem right here. Someone set this adopted kid to “evil.”
WILL IT SUCK?
You know, I like Peter Sarsgaard as much as the next guy, but damn.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
No competition, but the Creepy Kid subgenre kind of has a ceiling. $33mil.
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THE ANSWER MAN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
As Good As Jeff Daniels Gets
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good. Nominated for a Grand Jury Prize at Sundance. Shot in Philly – just around the corner from my old place for one scene. That last part probably doesn’t matter.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Likely expansion of (500) Days of Summer should provide some healthy competition. $3mil.
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IN THE LOOP
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Imagine if The Office took place at 10 Downing St.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is outstanding. Based on the acclaimed British comedy series The Thick of It. Funny-ass trailer and clip.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The lack of a name cast (minus James Gandolfini in a supporting role) will hurt. $1mil.
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SHRINK
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kevin Spacey plays a shrink to the stars who has plenty of issues of his own.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Director has done some good TV (Chuck, Battlestar Galactica, Friday Night Lights). Kevin Spacey is Kevin Spacey.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Definitely has the biggest star in the pack, but does anyone know about it? $2mil.
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July 31
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FUNNY PEOPLE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Dying comedian (Adam Sandler) takes newbie (Seth Rogen) under his wing.
WILL IT SUCK?
As a writer/director, Judd Apatow is 2 for 2 (40 Year Old Virgin, Knocked Up). Interesting to see how he works in the cinematography of Janusz “I usually work for Spielberg” Kaminski and the comedy stylings of Sarah Silverman.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The Sandler fan base stays away more when they detect a serious vibe in his work. Still, you’re combining Apatow and (at least part of) Sandler’s demos. $111mil.
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ALIENS IN THE ATTIC
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Teenagers vs. Aliens
WILL IT SUCK?
It’s from the director of Like Mike and The Honeymooners. What could go wrong? Granted one of the Curse of the Wererabbit writers is up in here, but the trailer sucks balls. On paper, “remote control kung-fu grandma” seems interesting. In practice it looks like a Kung Fu Hustle rip.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
G-Force the week before and G.I. Joe the week after are an issue. But that grandma could put butts in seats. $56mil.
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ADAM
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An Asperger’s Syndrome love story.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is pretty good. Won the Alfred P. Sloane award at Sundance, which goes to a film that focuses on science or scientists.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Rough waters. $1mil.
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THE COVE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc exposing some fucked up shit going on with dolphins in Japan.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is sick good. Best doc awards at Sundance, Hot Docs, Seattle and more. And even horror maven Scott Weinberg found it especially disturbing.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Strong buzz should help. Still, docs have fallen on hard times lately. $2mil.
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JANKY PROMOTERS
(delayed from March)

WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Two promoters (Ice Cube, Mike Epps), who happen to be janky, try to book a superstar rapper who’s out of their league. Janky shenanigans ensue.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the director of Friday After Next. Ice Cube, who wrote the original Friday, wrote this, but he also wrote Friday After Next. Just can’t get away from that flick.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given that as of early March through late June, the film’s Web site had nothing more posted than the definition of the word “janky,” I’m thinking more Longshots than First Sunday. $6mil.
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LORNA’S SILENCE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Twisted tale involving marriage for citizenship and murder.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. From the Dardennes Bros. (L’Enfant). Won the screenplay award at Cannes.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Name five people you know who know who the Dardennes are. $750,000.
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NOT QUITE HOLLYWOOD: THE WILD, UNTOLD STORY OF OZPLOITATION
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc on Aussie grindhouse flicks of the 70′s and 80′s.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is fantastic, if you’re into that sort of thing. Listening to Quentin Tarantino enthuse about this stuff would be entertaining enough, but apparently there’s more. There’s an unbelievably NSFW trailer on the movie’s official site that will let you know pretty quickly if it’s for you.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Given that Grindhouse itself didn’t do that well, I don’t have high hopes here. $500,000.
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THIRST
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Vampire priest.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good, if a little tempered, though it did tie for the Jury Prize at this year’s Cannes. This is from Chan Wook Park, who made me his bitch with Oldboy, so I’m predisposed to give him the benefit of the doubt. Based on an Emile Zola novel. Didn’t see that coming.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even Oldboy follow-up Lady Vengeance, which was released when there was a lot more heat on Park, didn’t do very well. $500,000.
Next Month: Yes, “Inglorious” is an actual word. “Basterds” not so much.

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