The October 2008 Movie Preview

by Dave Thomas

Josh Brolin as W.
Is it strange that the movie I’m most psyched for this month has “porno” in the title? No. I don’t think so.
OCTOBER 3
BEVERLY HILLS CHIHUAHUA
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Far inferior remake of Beverly Hills Chupacabra.
WILL IT SUCK?
The one good thing I can say about this movie is that the casting probably saved the life of its lead, a stray dog named Rusco. Early buzz is shockingly (albeit apologetically) good.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
City of Ember doesn’t make things any easier the following week, but there are no other talking pet movies for miles. On the other hand, it’s called Beverly Hills Chihuahua. $18mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
We all know about the Academy’s bias against talking animals.
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NICK AND NORAH’S INFINITE PLAYLIST
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kat Dennings and Michael Cera stumble into a first date in NYC.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. The long overdue follow-up effort from Raising Victor Vargas helmer Peter Sollet. More interestingly, a teen romcom based on a novel.

HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The only other romcom in sight, last week’s Nights in Rodanthe, skews much older, and isn’t really a romcom. How to Lose Friends… isn’t strictly a romcom either, but will pull on much more of the same audience. But I think it’s safe to say Michael Cera is hotter than Simon Pegg right now. $48mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No, but there should have been more love for Cera in Juno.
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BLINDNESS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
An epidemic of blindness leads to the victims being quarantined and going all Lord of the Flies on each other while Julianne Moore, who’s faking blindness to stay with her stricken husband (Mark Ruffalo) er, looks on.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is mixed, which is disappointing since this is Fernando (Constant Gardener, City of God) Meirelles we’re talking about here. The writer’s no slouch, either, having penned the decent-but-unseen Childstar. Gael Garcia Bernal is up in here, too, but apparently that didn’t help.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Maybe pick a less crowded weekend. Maybe go limited, too. $31mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If it had got better reviews, maybe.
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RELIGULOUS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Bill Maher, not a big fan of the religion.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is generally positive. Larry Charles was the perfect choice to direct this doc given the scarcity of punches pulled in Borat. Curious to see how dimensional Maher’s critique of religion turns out to be.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Let’s just say the American Carol crowd won’t dectract from Religulous‘ demo. Still, a limited release (and not just one that starts two days earlier) would have served this film better, especially in this crowded a market. $5mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A doc nod isn’t out of the question.
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HOW TO LOSE FRIENDS AND ALIENATE PEOPLE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Simon Pegg tries to make it in the crazy world of New York magazine publishing.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Based on former Vanity Fair contributor Toby Young’s memoir. Good cast: Gillian Anderson, Jeff Bridges, Danny Huston, Kirsten Dunst, are all on board with Pegg. Curb Your Enthusiam vet Robert V. Weide should be able to wring out plenty of awkward at the helm. Also, the only flick I know of to promote itself with its own facebook app.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Infinite Playlist won’t help matters, and with Ghost Town returns proving that no one knows who the hell Ricky Gervais is, there’s no way they know who Simon Pegg is, either. $17mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Devil Wears Prada it ain’t.
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FLASH OF GENIUS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True story of a guy (Greg Kinnear) who sued the automobile industry for stealing his idea.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is generally good, if not full-throated.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will get lost in the shuffle. $10mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It usually takes a stronger reaction to get that far.
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AN AMERICAN CAROL
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Conservative Satirists Strike Back
WILL IT SUCK?
David Zucker used to be much, much funnier than this. Although it all started to come off the rails with Scary Movie 3 and 4, so don’t necessarily blame it on the conservative slant. More here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
A lot of the male audience for this flick will turn to Body of Lies next week, but with the right marketing, this could hit an underserved market. $39mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Even if this were the most sophisticated skewering of liberals, which it ain’t, the conservatives in the Academy would get outvoted pretty handily.
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RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Rehab chick (Anne Hathaway) goes to her sister’s wedding.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. By the look of the trailer, Jonathan Demme is going mumblecore. Cast supported by Debra Winger, Anna Deveare Smith and Rosemarie Dewitt (who kicked ass on Mad Men) as the eponymous Rachel.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Probably about as well as Margot at the Wedding, with which it’s sure to get needlessly confused. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
As the sole lead in Brokeback to not get a nod, Hathaway may see her fortunes change here. Dewitt getting some early notices, too.
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BALLAST
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Three people react to a suicide in a small town.
WILL IT SUCK?
The darling of this year’s Sundance. Won for cinematography and direction. Early buzz is good, but not quite as fawning as all that.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Sundance darlings tend not to do well unless they have big stars. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Ditto.
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OCTOBER 10
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QUARANTINE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Cloverfield-style chiller about an outbreak in an apartment complex.
WILL IT SUCK?
As with most horror films nowadays, this is a remake. It’s a remake of a Spanish film, though, instead of a Japanese or Korean or 70′s/80′s American one, so it’s got that going for it. Still, the cameraperson-as-character bit might seem more original were it not for Cloverfield. Or Diary of the Dead. Or The Blair Witch Project.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Smart enough to stay away from Saw but not smart enough to stay away from similarly quarantine-themed Blindness. Doubt it will make much difference either way. $20mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If they won’t remember Cloverfield, they won’t remember this.
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BODY OF LIES
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Leo DiCaprio and Russel Crowe try to take down Al Qaeda.
WILL IT SUCK?
From director Ridley Scott, who more often than not brings the awesome. Adapted from the David Ignatius novel by William Monahan (The Departed) who’s been tapped to write Jurassic Park IV (!?!).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Nothing else this month has this kind of star power, but the Middle East is toxin at the box office. $48mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
You’d think Scott’s American Gangster would have made more waves. In light of that, I’m thinking not so much.
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CITY OF EMBER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Two kids try to save their city, which happens to be the light source for the world.
WILL IT SUCK?
From Monster House director Gil Kenan and Corpse Bride, Edward Scissorhands and Nightmare Before Christmas scribe Caroline Thompson, who adapts the first in Jeanne Duprau’s celebrated Ember series. Decent cast, too: Bill Murray, Tim Robbins, Saoirse Ronan and Martin Landau.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Most attempts at starting a fantasy franchise that’s not as iconic as Narnia, Potter or Rings have seen middling returns. $72mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
See previous answer.
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THE EXPRESS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
True story of Ernie Davis, the first black man to win the Heisman Trophy.
WILL IT SUCK?
Kind of an uninspiring pedigree. The director did Runaway Jury but hasn’t done anything really interesting since that subway episode of Homicide. The writer did a great job with Blood Diamond but not so much with K-Pax. Dennis Quaid plays a coach again which is smart but uninteresting casting.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The recent history of football films does not bode well. $12mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
They didn’t Remember the Titans, and that had Denzel.
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ROCKNROLLA
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Guy Ritchie returns to what he does best. We hope.
WILL IT SUCK?
Guy Ritchie’s last movie was so bad that (a) it’s hard to trust him with a script again and (b) it’s hard for him to do a lot worse. So I try to be a little psyched. I like the casting of Tom Wilkinson and Jeremy Piven in supporting roles. Early buzz says it’s better, at least, than Revolver, but not quite back to the level of Lock, Stock or Snatch.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Ritchie will see financial success once his next movie hits theaters. $9mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
No.
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HAPPY-GO-LUCKY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
In Mike Leigh’s latest, Sally Hawkins plays a woman who is the title.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Hawkins took the Golden Bear at Berlin and the film won the wonderfully-named “Most Enjoyable Film” award at the Norwegian International Film Festival. Seriously, we should have an award like that here.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Will probably hit around the Mike Leigh average. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Miramax can afford the Oscar push, Hawkins might stand a chance at a nod.
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NIGHTS AND WEEKENDS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Couple tries to survive a long distance relationship.
WILL IT SUCK?
Mumblecore progenitors Greta Gerwig and Joe Swanberg’s (who co-write, co-direct and co-star) best to date, according to early buzz. Of course, you have to like mumblecore.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I don’t think this will be the breakthrough mumblecore hit, but I think it will score on the higher end of the genre. $250,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It took about ten years for mumblecore forerunner Cassavetes to show up on the Academy’s radar.
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ASHES OF TIME REDUX
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
If it hasn’t been released in North America, it’s new to you.
WILL IT SUCK?
Apparently, there are only a few differences between Wong Kar Wai’s original 1994 Ashes and this reworking. Still, the old one is slightly more highly regarded (though both are considered the shiznit). In a way, though, it doesn’t matter because the original was never released in the states, so if you wanna see this film in a theater, this is your only shot.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Wong Kar Wai does not usually bring in the big bucks. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Is it even eligible?
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OCTOBER 17
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SEX DRIVE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Superbad Road Trip
WILL IT SUCK?
Looks like College with a better cast and only one or two better jokes. Don’t know what a teen comedy has to do these days to get out of the shadow of Superbad, but this ain’t it.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Now that Max Payne has a PG-13, it will pwn this film, which draws on the same demo with an R. $14mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Seth Green for Best Cameo as an Amish Person. It’s one of the technical awards.
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MAX PAYNE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
FPS video game adaptation. So there’ll be shooting.
WILL IT SUCK?
FPS video game adaptation. So yes. No idea about the writer, but the director did Behind Enemy Lines (and The Omen remake, but that wasn’t an action film so let’s just ignore it), so I guess the action sequences might not suck. Actually, I’ve already lost interest in this movie since the director’s next one involves zombie vampires in Afghanistan (though, strangely, isn’t actually called Zombie Vampires in Afghanistan, which would just be the Best. Title. Ever.)
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Not much in the way of action this month, and Marky Mark usually draws a crowd. $58mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I think the first video game adaptation to even stand a slim chance at an Oscar nod will be Bioshock.
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THE SECRET LIFE OF BEES
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Little white girl (Dakota Fanning, natch) goes to live with big black family in 60′s South Carolina.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is bad. From the writer/director of Love and Basketball with a tricked-out cast including Queen Latifah, Sohpie Okonedo, Paul Bettany, Alicia Keys and Jennifer Hudson (and no word on whether those last two sing a duet on the soundtrack but if I were some cheeseball producer I’d totally have them remaking “Peace Train” or some shit).
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Based on a bestselling novel. And there’s nothing else like it for miles. $34mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I’m sure that was the idea.
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W.
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Step back in time with me to, um, I guess right now.
WILL IT SUCK?
Seriously, who else could direct this shit but Oliver Stone? And Josh Brolin as the Prez is fuck genius. Some inspired casting all around: Elizabeth Banks as Laura Bush, Ellen Burstyn as Barbara Bush, Rob Corddry as Ari Fleischer, James Cromwell as Pa Bush, Richard Dreyfuss as Darth Cheney, Scott Glen as Rumsfeld, Ioan Gruffudd as Tony Blair, Toby Jones as Karl Rove, Bruce McGill as George Tenet, Thandie Newton as Condi Rice and Jeffrey Wright as Colin Powell.
Written by Stanley Wiser, who last teamed with Stone on Wall Street. Of course, he also wrote Project X. But, you know what? If Bush teams up with a superintelligent chimpanzee halfway through the movie, I’m gonna call that a win.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
With approval ratings in the toilet, it won’t be hard to find a group of adults willing to plunk down some cash to watch Stone beat up on the old man for a couple of hours, though I doubt that’s what he’s actually going to do. $45mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If it’s a masterpiece, which isn’t impossible, look at every major award to be in play.
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MORNING LIGHT
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Doc following a group of newbie sailors who compete in an open ocean race.
WILL IT SUCK?
Apparently, Roy Disney is big into sailing, which is why he put this whole thing together. From the directors of the New York Cosmos doc.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
If What Just Happened? weren’t enough to overshadow it this week, Eastwood and Kaufman have films opening next week. $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
If Deep Water couldn’t get any love…
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WHAT JUST HAPPENED?
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Entourage, except without Vincent Chase.
WILL IT SUCK?
Director Barry Levinson hasn’t been knocking them out of the park lately, but this is currently his highest-rated film on IMDB. Adapted by Art Linson from his eponymous book. Supposedly the best work De Niro’s done in a while.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Generally speaking, Hollywood insider movies tend not to do that well. This does have the advantage of opening before next week’s Academy hopefuls, at least. $5mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Levinson’s already wagged the dog.
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OCTOBER 23
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HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3: SENIOR YEAR
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
I think the title’s pretty self-explanatory.
WILL IT SUCK?
Director Kenny Ortega helmed Newsies back in ’92 which, in my mind, makes him the perfect choice to have directed the first two High School Musicals. He directed this one, too, with the same writer on board so expect more of the same. That having been said, the trailer actually looks pretty good.
And yes, a High School Musical 4 has been announced.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
This is the first time a TV movie title has had a big screen sequel so, by definition, the audience is built-in (and large, or why make the leap). Let’s say only the people who watched the premiere of HSM 2 buy tix. That’s $172mil (assuming an average ticket price of $10).
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The Academy, of late, likes their musicals dark.
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SAW V
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
The Jigsaw mantle gets passed on.
WILL IT SUCK?
This series has been around so long that people are being promoted from production designer to director. Written by the guys who wrote the last Saw movie and, if you haven’t noticed, those things have been getting diminishing critical returns, even from fans.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Why is this not being released on Halloween which is, you know, on a Friday? Do they think the demo will be trick-or-treating? No, instead let’s open against one of the few surefire blockbusters of the fall. Especially since profits have been falling steadily since Saw II. $48mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Punctuality? These things really do come out every October like clockwork.
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PRIDE AND GLORY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Ed Norton ends up investigating his brother Colin Farrell’s precinct as part of a murder investigation.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is kind of confirming what I suspected, that this is a by-the-numbers police corruption flick. Doesn’t seem like co-screenwriter Joe Carnahan’s contribution has added anything jucier or Miracle director Gavin O’Connor (who co-wrote the screenplay) has added anything more original.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s unclear just how much promotion Warners is going to put behind any of the films it got stuck with, er, had the opportunity to distribute once it absorbed New Line, but by the look of how long this has sat on the shelf, the answer is probably not much. $17mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
I look forward to the day when Norton does something Oscar-worthy again, but this probably ain’t it.
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CHANGELING
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Angelina Jolie gets locked up in a mental institution for claiming that the boy the police brought to her in a missing persons case was not actually her son.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Not only have you got Clint (Eastwood, not Howard, though that would be cool, too) at the helm, but you’ve got John Malkovich in a leading role, with support from Colm Feore, Amy Ryan and that dude from Burn Notice (Jeffrey Donovan, not Bruce Campbell, though that would be hellacool). Strangely enough, the screenplay comes from Babylon 5 creator J. Michael Straczynski.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Clint plus stars equals indie gold. Hell, they could have probably released this shit wide. $30mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
While critical response has been a touch more lukewarm than you usually get for Oscar fare, I can see the Academy’s love for Eastwood (depending upon the strength of field) turning into multiple nods.
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PASSENGERS
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
U2 records a really weird album with Brian Eno. Oh, you mean the movie. Patrick Wilson starts getting all these fucked up abilities after surviving a plane crash.
WILL IT SUCK?
From the guy who wrote that 10.5 earthquake TV movie…you know what? I’m just going to stop right there.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
You’ve got a paranormal thriller with Anne Hathaway, Patrick Wilson, Andre Brauer and David Morse and you’re going to release it limited near the end of October? Yeah, that’s a body dump. $4mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Nope.
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SYNECDOCHE, NEW YORK
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Charlie Kaufman writes and, for the first time, directs this straightforward story in which nothing unusual happens. Nah, just kidding. It’s pretty fucked up.
WILL IT SUCK?
If you “get” the title, this movie is probably for you. Early buzz is good, but terms like “surreal post-modern metanarrative” are thrown around freely in reviews, so consider yourself warned. If you need more reason to get psyched, look at this cast: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Samantha Morton, Michelle Williams, Catherine Keener, Emily Watson, Dianne Weist, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Hope Davis and that dude who played the bad guy in Manhunter.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Unless Kaufman has a Jim Carrey or a Nic Cage in the lead, it’s hard for his scripts to make bank. $17mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
A screenplay (or maybe even directing) nod isn’t out of the question, and with all the makeup changes maybe Hoffman could get a nod, and there’s no lack of Supporting Actress roles, but overall the reception hasn’t been on the level of say, the love for Eternal Sunshine, so I wouldn’t put any money down.
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LET THE RIGHT ONE IN
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Vampire flick for those who think the bloodsuckers in Twilight are too old.
WILL IT SUCK?
Ha ha! That never gets old! Been leaving an army of devoted fans in its film festival wake, racking up awards including a big win at Tribeca. In reviews, the term “classic” comes up a lot. It’s a Swedish import so, of course, there’s going to be an American remake (by Cloverfield helmer Matt Reeves) so probably best to check this one out first.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
These festival horror darlings almost never do well theatrically. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Ditto, minus the “almost.”
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FEAR(S) OF THE DARK
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
A collection of animated horror shorts by leading graphic artists (none of whom I’ve ever heard of, but that’s not saying much).
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is good. Cool concept. Even the less scary parts are supposed to have amazing animation.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the mainstream audience (or even a lot of the indie audience) hasn’t heard of Blutch, Charles Burns, Marie Caillou, Lorenzo Mattoti, Pierre Di Sciullo or Richard McGuire, either. $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It would be pretty cool to see a horror film sneak in by getting an animated nod. I think it’s unlikely, though.
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I’VE LOVED YOU SO LONG
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
French film in which two sisters are reunited after 15 years.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz is great. Kristin Scott Thomas is supposed to be awesome. I didn’t even know she spoke French.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
There are some high profile indies this week, but this is not one of them. $1mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
The way they’re talking about Thomas, you’d think so, but the language thing is going to be a dealbreaker.
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OCTOBER 31
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THE HAUNTING OF MOLLY HARTLEY
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Kind of like Reaper with a chick.
WILL IT SUCK?
Looks like it. Seriously, were it not for Gossip Girls‘ Chace Crawford having a supporting role, I’m thinking straight-to-DVD.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
Even Chace can’t save this one. $10mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Not so much.
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ZACK AND MIRI MAKE A PORNO
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Title leaves little to the imagination.
WILL IT SUCK?
Early buzz has this as pretty much the best little Kevin Smith film ever. Looks like the perfect storm of Smith dialogue and Apatow players (though Apatow has no involvement). Check out the hilarious red band trailer.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
I think audiences are ready to love Smith again. $58mil.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Just once I’d like to see my homeboy get a screenplay nod. Just once.
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SPLINTER
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Carjackers and kidnapees vs. deadly parasite.
WILL IT SUCK?
Been getting raves on the horror fest circuit.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
The much higher profile Repo! The Genetic Opera opens the following week, and even that ain’t gonna do well. $500,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
It would be nice someday to see one of these claustrophobic horror flicks make a dent.
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THE OTHER END OF THE LINE
WHAT’S THE PITCH?
Sleepless in Mumbai
WILL IT SUCK?
You don’t expect the director of Behind Enemy Lines 2 to helm a romcom, yet here we are.
HOW WELL WILL IT DO?
It’s not so much that there’s a lot of genre competition as I don’t think anyone is going to hear about this. $750,000.
WILL ANYBODY REMEMBER IT AT OSCAR TIME?
Again with the no one will ever know.
Next Month: The generation gap is defined by those who are more psyched for Quantum of Solace or Twilight (or maybe that’s just the gender gap).

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